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SENATE
Independent Expenditures: Outside Groups Up Ante in Two Key Senate Races
We are now seeing the "rubber hit the road" in terms of campaign spending. The Republican Senate Leadership Fund just announced media buys of more than $67 million targeted for the Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin races. The largest expenditure – some $28 million – according to The Down Ballot political blog, is targeted to attack Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D-PA).
A total of $22 million will be spent on the Michigan airwaves. The financial imbalance here is significant for the two candidates – Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) enjoys a 5:1 advantage in fundraising over ex-Rep. Mike Rogers (R) – so the outside organization is spending heavily to bring the GOP nominee into financial parity. The final $17 million is headed to Wisconsin, where polling is suggesting that the Republican challenge to Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) is getting more serious.
HOUSE
AZ-7: Rep. Grijalva Won't Run in 2026
Veteran Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) announced yesterday that the succeeding term he will undoubtedly win in November will be his last, as he continues to successfully battle lung cancer. This makes him the first incumbent to make a retirement announcement for the 2026 election cycle.
Representative Grijalva was first elected in 2002; therefore, completing his career at the end of 2026 will mean that his time in Congress will span twelve consecutive terms. Grijalva is the former chairman of the House Natural Resources Committee and will likely once again assume that role if the Democrats capture the House majority.
The 7th District stretches almost the entire width of the Arizona-Mexico border region, beginning in Pirtleville and moving west all the way to Yuma. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 7th District as D+27, so Rep. Grijalva's eventual successor will also be a Democrat.
Spending: Dem Independent Arm Ups Spending
The House Democrats' main independent expenditure group, the House Majority PAC, announced over $13 million in additional ad buys for emerging close districts, as reported in The Down Ballot political blog. This suggests that polling showing closing margins is also appearing in Democratic internal polling.
The increased media investments are occurring in CA-9 (Rep. Josh Harder; D-Stockton), CA-47 (open seat: Scott Baugh (R) vs. state Sen. Dave Min (D)), CT-5 (Rep. Jahana Hayes; D-Wolcott), IA-1 (Mariannette Miller-Meeks; R-Le Claire), and OH-13 (Rep. Emilia Sykes; D-Akron). All but one, IA-1, are protect campaigns for the Democratic brain trust.
LOCALITIES
Los Angeles County: Gascon Trails Badly in DA Race
The California Elections and Policy Poll is a product of three universities: The University of Southern California, Cal Poly Pomona, and California State University at Long Beach. The study was fielded during the Sept. 12-25 period and questioned 1,685 CA likely voters with an online questionnaire.
The result of the poll, taken directly after the California jungle primary election in early June, found controversial District Attorney George Gascon (D) badly trailing his general election opponent, former prosecutor Nathan Hochman (I). The ballot test result finds Mr. Hochman leading DA Gascon, 44-20%. In the crowded jungle primary, Mr. Gascon, the one-term incumbent after serving as District Attorney in San Francisco County, received only 25% of the vote, which is a sure sign of impending doom in the general election.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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