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HOUSE
MI-8: Continues in Toss-Up Mode
The National Republican Congressional Committee just released an Oct. 13-15 NMB Research poll showing GOP nominee Paul Junge, who has twice run for the seat against retiring incumbent Dan Kildee (D-Flint Township), clinging to a small, one-point lead – 41-40% – over state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City).
The 8th District, which houses the municipalities of Flint, Saginaw, Midland and Bay City, is a swing district. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+1. The Down Ballot political blog ranks MI-8 as the 11th-most-vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference. Therefore, both the polling and vote history suggest this district is performing as predicted.
NM-2: Rep. Vasquez Continues to Lead
The contest between current New Mexico US Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-Las Cruces) and former Rep. Yvette Herrell (R) – a rematch of their 2022 race, which was decided by less than a percentage point – continues to poll closely, but the Congressman maintains a clear lead.
The Research & Polling organization, conducting an Oct. 10-18 survey for the Albuquerque Journal newspaper, finds Rep. Vasquez leading 49-45%. This race will attract a great deal of attention on Election Day, as it is one of the key GOP challenger races that could wrest a seat away from Democratic control.
The reported early voting totals, as reported by the Target Early / Target Smart organization, sees Republican early turnout exceeding their participation rate during the 2020 presidential election in the 16-day lead up to Election Day. Republicans are about eight points ahead of their previous turnout pace, while Democrats are down almost three percentage points.
So far, the rural early turnout is outpacing the region's 2020 turnout by approximately 15 points, while the suburban early turnout is down seven points. While the polling may favor Vasquez, the early vote matrix suggest Herrell could be in the better early position.
GOVERNOR
Indiana: Dems Spend More
Democrats are not giving up in their bid to flip the open Indiana Governor's race. The Democratic Governors' Association just increased its investment in party nominee Jennifer McCormick's campaign by 40%, bringing their entire contribution to her campaign to over $1 million.
Publicly-released polls of this race have been sparse, with just five surveys unveiled since Sept. 1. US Senator Mike Braun (R), eschewing a second federal term in order to compete in the Governor's race, leads in all five polls by an average of six percentage points.
Washington: Getting Closer
A new Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey for the Northwest Progressive Institute sees the open Washington Governor's race tightening, but with Democratic Attorney General Bob Ferguson still holding a comfortable lead over former US Representative and ex-King County Sheriff Dave Reichert (R).
Public Policy Polling, the regular pollster for the NPI, sees Reichert climbing to within seven points of Ferguson, 48-41%. Two other October polls have shown the Ferguson average lead to be 15 percentage points.
It is still likely that Ferguson will win the race, but the PPP survey does show clear movement in Reichert's direction.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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