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SENATE
Nebraska: GOP All In
The Senate Leadership Fund – the Republicans' main Senate outside Super PAC – is dropping another $3 million onto the Nebraska airwaves to help GOP Sen. Deb Fischer, who is in an unexpectedly difficult race against Independent candidate Dan Osborn.
With no Democratic opponent, Sen. Fischer looked to have an easy road to a third term until Mr. Osborn surfaced as a credible candidate. Once he did, the Democrats coalesced around him and helped with his fundraising. In the 3rd Quarter, Mr. Osborn raised more than $3.2 million and is running heavy negative personal attack ads against Sen. Fischer.
The Nebraska race is the surprise of the 2024 election cycle and has now become a critical contest with respect to the Senate majority. With Republicans on the threshold of claiming chamber control, they cannot afford to see any of their incumbents, including Sen. Fischer, upset.
HOUSE
CA-47: Republican Baugh Leads in New Survey
WPA Intelligence has released the results of its latest survey of the Orange County-housed open 47th District featuring former Republican state Assemblyman Scott Baugh and Democratic state Senator Dave Min of Irvine. According to the poll results, Mr. Baugh claims a 43-40% edge over Mr. Min.
If the GOP were to convert this open seat, it would be a major positive in their quest to maintain their small House majority. The 47th District rates as D+6 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization.
In 2022, Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) defeated Mr. Baugh, 52-48%, but had to outspend him by a 10:1 ratio – dropping almost $30 million into her race. Rep. Porter risked the seat this year to run unsuccessfully for the state's open US Senate seat, failing to advance into the general election from the jungle primary.
Senator Min's publicly-viewed drunk driving arrest has certainly been a factor in the campaign. This is becoming a national congressional race that will certainly influence which party will control the US House in the next Congress.
FL-13: Rep. Luna in a Dead Heat
Florida pollster St. Pete Polls conducted a survey of the Pinellas County-anchored 13th CD and sees Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg), running for a second term, languishing in a 46-46% tie with Democrat Whitney Fox.
The poll's accuracy is a bit suspect; though it shows a weighted sample comprised of 41% Republican respondents and 32% Democratic, it finds former President Trump trailing Vice President Kamala Harris, 50-47%. While the district is competitive, these numbers suggest an outlier. Representative Luna running ahead of Trump is a good sign for her, but this poll will likely prove inaccurate when the votes are actually counted.
Additionally, with almost 67,000 early votes recorded, the Republican number is exceeding past performance, which is another data point not in accordance with these poll results.
MI-10: Rep. James Holds Small Lead
Michigan pollster The Glengariff Group surveyed the state's politically-marginal 10th District for two media outlets, the Detroit News and WDIV Channel 4 in Detroit. The results find freshman Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) leading his 2022 opponent Carl Marlinga (D), a former judge and prosecutor, by a 47-44% count.
The 10th District is a Detroit suburban seat that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+6, but the Dave's Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 49.5D – 47.9% partisan lean. The Down Ballot political blog ranks MI-10 as the 24th-most-vulnerable seat in the House Republican Conference. This is another of the key national congressional districts that will help determine which party controls the next House majority.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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