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EARLY VOTING
National Vote: Approaching 20 Million Early Votes
Almost 20 million people have already cast their ballots in the 2024 general election, and while both Democrats and Republicans are slightly ahead of their 2020 percentage turnout benchmark, we see big increases in the rural vote, while the most consistent voters dominate the early ballot casts.
According to the TargetEarly/TargetSmart data organization, early voters from the rural areas are up a full eight points over their 2020 performance and almost four percentage points over the 2022 turnout statistics.
Conversely, urban voters are down ten points from 2020, and six from the 2022 benchmark. Those listed as frequent and "super voters" – the latter meaning individuals who participate in every election – dominate the 2024 early-voting statistics.
The first-time voter category is down about nine percentage points as compared to 2020, while the infrequent voter is down five points. Those categorized as "frequent voters" are down three points from 2020, and five points when compared with the 2022 statistics. The "super voter" category dominates early voting. This group is up 17 points over the 2020 performance, and five in comparison to 2022.
HOUSE
AL-2: Figures Expands Lead
The newly-created 2nd Congressional District is now beginning to perform as designed.
The original intent was to draw the seat to elect an African-American Representative and, after a flirtation with Republican Caroleen Dobson, the electorate appears to be returning to normal trends. The legislature was under court order to draw a second majority minority seat, and this district is the result.
An Oct. 14-17 Schoen Cooperman Research survey conducted for the Protect Progress liberal Super PAC finds former Obama Administration official Shomari Figures (D) leading Dobson by a 49-38% count, which should put the race to bed for the Democrats.
MT-1: New Poll Shows One-Point Race
While several polls since mid-September have shown Montana US Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) pulling away from Democrat Monica Tranel, a new Impact Research survey for the Tranel campaign sees the race coming back into the one point range with the incumbent still maintaining the slightest of leads.
While Rep. Zinke still must be considered the favorite to win, this contest is again closer than it should be in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+10, and where former President Trump recorded a 52-45% showing in 2020.
New York: Polls Find Dems Running Well Against GOP Incumbents
Two of three recently-released surveys suggest defeat is looming for a pair of incumbent Empire State Republicans. Siena College tested two Long Island Districts and found scandal-tainted freshman Rep. Anthony D'Esposito (R-Island Park) trailing badly in the region's 4th Congressional District. According to the Siena survey, the Congressman trails former Hempstead Town Supervisor and 2022 congressional nominee Laura Guillen (D) by a substantial 53-41% deficit figure.
In eastern Long Island, freshman Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Suffolk County) has only a three-point lead over former CNN anchor John Avlon (D). The Siena poll posts the Congressman to a 47-44% edge.
Survey USA went into the field in the Upstate 19th Congressional District, where Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-Red Hook) also trails his Democratic opponent. The survey gives 2022 congressional nominee and attorney Josh Riley (D) a 46-42% edge over Congressman Molinaro.
Should the two GOP incumbents lose the Nov. 5 election, it will be a major blow toward Republican prospects of sustaining their small US House majority.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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