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PRESIDENT
Virginia: Shock Poll
A new Quantum Insights poll for the Trending Politics news blog released a very surprising result. It finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by just one percentage point, 49-48%, in the routinely-blue Commonwealth of Virginia.
The Oct. 22-24 survey finds Black voters leaning toward Harris by 77%, which is under what we typically see for this population segment. Trump receiving 21% of this Virginia demographic is higher than average for a Republican candidate.
White voters are leaning toward Trump, with 57% supporting him, while Hispanics divide
55-41% in favor of Harris. Forty-one percent of the Virginia Hispanic vote is also an above-average support factor for a Republican candidate, but the sample size reflected only half the size of the actual Virginia Hispanic population base.
A Washington Post / George Mason University survey, however, taken within the same
time frame, finds Harris holding a 49-43% advantage over Trump, which is closer to Virginia voting history.
SENATE
Missouri: Sen. Hawley Expands Lead
In September, a survey was publicized showing Sen. Josh Hawley (R) topping military veteran and attorney Lucas Kunce (D) by just five percentage points. Money started to come into the Kunce campaign to close the financial deficit and, as a result, the race began attracting some national attention.
However, an Oct. 22-23 Emerson College study for The Hill finds Sen. Hawley rebounding to a full ten-point advantage, 51-41%. This suggests a return to a more typical Missouri voting pattern.
It is expected that Sen. Hawley will likely continue gaining momentum and win in the mid-to-high 50s.
Nevada: Brown Pulls Even
Since the beginning of June, 26 polls have been conducted of the Nevada Senate race and incumbent Jacky Rosen (D) has led in all, with an average edge of eight percentage points.
A new OnMessage survey, however, tells a different story.
This poll sees Republican challenger Sam Brown pulling into a tie with Sen. Rosen, at 48-48%.
While the contest has been getting closer, with Mr. Brown typically shaving off half of Sen. Rosen's previously-healthy lead, no other ballot test result has shown the race tied.
Therefore, the OnMessage poll could be an outlier, or it possibly could be detecting the onset of a Republican surge.
So far – and for the first time since 2020 early voting – more Republicans have cast their ballots than Democrats in Nevada. As a point of reference, the presidential ballot test also showed former President Trump leading, 50-46%.
HOUSE
OH-13: One-Point Lead for Republicans
The Akron-anchored northern Ohio 13th Congressional District was created as an open seat on the 2021 redistricting bill.
In 2022, then-state Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) defeated Republican Madison Gesiotto Gilbert (R) by a 53-47% count, in what was a better Democratic performance than initially predicted.
This year, former state legislator Kevin Coughlin is the GOP candidate, and a new survey suggests he has moved into parity with Rep. Sykes, even though he is being outspent by a 3:1 ratio, including all "outside money" on both sides.
The late October co/efficient poll gives Mr. Coughlin a one-point edge over Rep. Sykes (46-45%). Former President Trump also leads VP Kamala Harris by a single point.
In the Senate race, from the district that Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) would represent today if he were a US Representative, Brown leads Republican Bernie Moreno by only three points (49-46%). This is one more House race that will draw attention on election night.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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