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Writer's pictureJim Ellis

Political Roundup – October 9, 2024

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SENATE


Texas: Polling Still Close 


Florida Atlantic University is one of the many polling entities testing the Texas Senate race, and like that of the others, its survey data suggests a looming close finish. The university poll projects Sen. Ted Cruz (R) to be holding only a 46-43% lead over US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas), with 11% undecided.

  

As has been the case around the country, the Democrats are emphasizing the abortion issue while the Cruz campaign, like that of former President Donald Trump, is hitting the transgender issue in addition to crime and the border. It's not clear if transgender policy is a vote-driver, which has caused some to question the Cruz strategy. The same poll finds Mr. Trump leading Kamala Harris, 50-45%. Both Republicans appear to be under-polling.


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HOUSE


CA-49: Rep. Levin (D) Staked to Big Lead 


Republicans had some hope that their candidate, auto dealer Matt Gunderson, who came very close to winning an area state Senate seat in 2022, might have an upset potential in the Golden State's 49th Congressional District – a coastal southern California domain that appears moderately competitive on paper.


However, a newly-released Survey USA poll, conducted for the San Diego Union Tribune and KGTV-Channel 10, finds three-term Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano) posting a healthy 53-41% advantage over Mr. Gunderson. In 2022, Rep. Levin was re-elected with 52.6% of the vote. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the San Diego-Orange County district as D+5, but Rep. Levin has been able to slightly outperform the district's voter history.


NJ-7: Rep. Kean's Small Lead 


Earlier in this election cycle, a slew of formidable potential northern New Jersey contenders decided not to enter the Democratic congressional primary, thus leaving the nomination to former New Jersey Working Families Executive Director Sue Altman (D). At that point, it looked like freshman Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield) would have an easier 2024 re-election battle than expected. However, a new poll may suggest otherwise.


The Global Strategy Group, polling for the Altman campaign, has released the results of a new internal poll that finds the Congressman leading Ms. Altman with only a two-point margin, 47-45%. It is unclear if any push statements were used on the poll questionnaire.  It will be curious to see if the Kean campaign quickly releases survey results of their own to counter this data.


NM-2: Rep. Vasquez (D) Expands Lead 


In the Land of Enchantment's tight 2nd Congressional District, freshman New Mexico Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-Las Cruces) has opened a large lead over former US Rep. Yvette Herrell (R), according to a recent Survey USA poll conducted for KOB Channel 4-TV in Albuquerque. According to this result, Rep. Vasquez holds a 51-42% advantage. Previous polling had shown a much closer race.  


The 2nd District was reconfigured as part of the 2021 redistricting legislation, which resulted in the southern seat being drawn into the outer Albuquerque suburbs in order to make it more Democratic. The plan worked, as Mr. Vasquez, then a Las Cruces City Councilman, edged out the one-term Congresswoman by less than a full percentage point. Previously, the 2nd District was drawn as a much more Republican-friendly seat.


Regardless of this poll result, the NM-2 campaign will likely be close. Before President Biden exited his race, the Republicans appeared to be on an upswing in the state, but that has changed since Kamala Harris was installed as the party nominee.


Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.


Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.


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