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SENATE
Pennsylvania: Confirming Poll
Last week, we reported on a CNN poll (part of a six-state polling series) that found Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) and businessman David McCormick (R) tied (46-46%) for the first time in this year's Keystone State Senate race. Since July 4, Sen. Casey averaged a seven-point spread over the course of 14 publicly-released surveys.
In a survey report released on Saturday, The Trafalgar Group basically verified CNN's tight projection. According to the Trafalgar numbers, Sen Casey tops McCormick by only one point, 46-45%, which is almost identical to the previous polling result.
Another survey conducted in a similar time frame, from Emerson College, projected the Senator's lead to be a bit stronger at four points, 48-44%, but still within the same realm as the others. Despite Sen. Casey's strong 2:1 spending advantage, it appears this race is becoming highly-competitive as we move deeper into political prime time.
HOUSE
MI-7: Poll Shows GOP Lead in Swing CD
Michigan US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing), running for the Senate, leaves a politically marginal 7th Congressional District in the toss-up open seat category. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+4, but the Dave's Redistricting App statisticians see a much closer and reversed partisan lean, 49.3D – 47.9R.
The Cygnal research organization has released a MI-7 survey that finds Republican former state Senator and 2022 congressional nominee Tom Barrett leading Democratic former state Senator and ex-gubernatorial chief of staff Curtis Hertel by a 48-43% count. Hertel, however, had a 3:1 cash-on-hand advantage at the end of June, so he apparently has the wherewithal to neutralize the polling difference.
MT-1: New Poll Shows Even Tighter Race
Democratic congressional candidate Monica Tranel has responded to last week's release of the Fabrizio Ward (R) / David Binder Research (D) poll for AARP. The Fabrizio/Binder data found Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) leading Tranel 49-43%, but the challenger's own internal poll arrives at a different result.
The Tranel campaign's Impact Research survey was in the field during the same time as the AARP poll (8/26-29), but finds a slightly closer ballot test result, 46-44%, in the Congressman's favor. Both polls are in the same realm, which suggests the race is closer than it should be for a Montana Republican incumbent. According to Impact Research, Rep. Zinke's favorability index is an upside-down 41:51% positive to negative.
Representative Zinke defeated Tranel 50-46% in 2022. In 2020, then-President Trump scored a 52-45% victory in the precincts that currently comprise the 1st District. While Rep. Zinke must be viewed as the favorite in this district during a presidential election year, the signs are again clear that he is headed for another underperforming election.
STATES
Final Primary Day: Delaware, New Hampshire, Rhode Island
Today is the 2024 election cycle's final primary day, as voters in Delaware, New Hampshire and Rhode Island will at last choose their nominees for November.
Delaware features only a competitive Democratic Governor's race, even though the Senate, at-large US House, and Governor's positions are all open. Lieutenant Gov. Bethany Hall-Long and New Castle County Executive Mike Mayer are battling for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, which is tantamount to winning in November.
The New Hampshire primary is most interesting, with gubernatorial primaries in both parties since four-term incumbent Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is retiring. Both parties also feature contested primaries in the open 2nd Congressional District, since incumbent Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton) is not seeking re-election. Seven Republicans are battling for the right to challenge three-term Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) in the state's eastern 1st District.
No major competition exists in the Rhode Island primary. Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D) and Reps. Gabe Amo (D-Providence) and Seth Magaziner (D-Cranston) are all either unopposed or face only minor competition.
Editor's note: For resources on political action, including a downloadable Voter's Guide for Authentic Catholics provided by the Souls and Liberty Action Network, click here.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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