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SENATE
Pennsylvania: Small, Medium and Large Casey Leads
Three new polls were released of the Pennsylvania Senate race and all show Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) leading, but the size of his margin has a wide variance.
Quinnipiac University gives Casey his largest lead, nine points, at 52-43%. Insider Advantage and Suffolk University see a much closer race with five- and four-point spreads, respectively. IA posts a 49-44% split, while Suffolk sees a 47-43% margin.
HOUSE
IA-1: Dem Releases Dead Heat Poll Against Rep. Miller-Meeks
Iowa US Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) is no stranger to close elections, having won her first term in the US House with only a six-vote margin. The eastern Iowa 1st District is politically marginal in that it contains the Iowa portion of the Quad Cities area, which is historically Democratic.
In 2022, Rep. Miller-Meeks defeated then-state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D) with a 53-46% victory margin. Yesterday, Bohannan released an internal Normington Petts poll from late August that found the two candidates tied at 47% apiece. Miller-Meeks only received 56% in the Republican primary thus suggesting that this race is evolving into a toss-up campaign.
ME-2: Rep. Golden Trailing in Surprising Poll
Pan Atlantic Research has released their early September Maine poll and it turns a surprising result. The data finds three-term Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) trailing retired NASCAR driver and state Rep. Austin Theriault (R) by a three point, 47-44%, margin.
The data looks similar to the 2018 numbers that brought Golden to Congress. In that election, Golden, then a challenger, was elected through Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) even though then-Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) received more original votes.
Though this 2024 race has the underpinnings to again be close, especially with former President Trump likely to carry the district as he has done twice before, it may very well end with Golden again winning through RCV even though his opponent could have more original votes.
NJ-10: LaMonica McIver (D) Wins Special Election
Yesterday, voters in the Newark metropolitan area went to the polls to replace the late Rep. Donald Payne, Jr. (D-Newark), who passed away in late April. The winner of last night's special election is, as expected, Newark City Council President LaMonica McIver (D).
McIver captured 81% of the vote from a turnout that will barely reach 30,000 voters. Upon certification of the results, McIver will immediately be sworn into the House to complete the balance of the current term. She is then the prohibitive favorite to win a full term in the November general election.
With McIver's election, the House party division count is now 220R – 212D, with three vacancies (2D and 1R). The other seats – in New Jersey, Texas, and Wisconsin – will all be filled concurrently with the November 5th general election.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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