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PRESIDENT
Kamala Harris Skips Catholic Al Smith Event
Vice President Kamala Harris' failure to participate in public events or news conferences drew a new round of attacks this weekend when her campaign confirmed that she will not attend the annual Al Smith Catholic fundraising dinner in New York on Oct. 17.
It is a tradition for presidential candidates from both parties to attend this function together, but the Harris campaign is deciding to ignore the 40-year-long political custom.
Catholics will likely note this disregard for Catholic voters and political convention as election season approaches.
Donald Trump Rejects 10/23 Debate
It appears the first debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will be the last.
While Ms. Harris declined to participate in a Fox News debate that Trump accepted, now the Republican nominee has declined CNN’s invitation to debate Ms. Harris on Oct. 23.
Mr. Trump says that date is too late for a forum since so many people will have already cast a ballot through early voting.
SENATE
Tracking Polls: Ohio and Texas Flip Leaders
Tracking polls are conducted not so much to capture where a race stands, but rather to detect which candidate the race trend favors over a sustained period. Two major long-term tracking polls suggest the underdog candidate in each important Senate contest is currently moving upward.
The Morning Consult survey research firm is conducting a nationwide series of
Senate and presidential race tracking in the key states.
In Texas, the MC data finds Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) pulling one point ahead of
incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R) (45-44%).
The Activote firm conducted a five week track of the Ohio Senate race and found GOP challenger Bernie Moreno moving ahead of Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) by two percentage points (51-49%).
In neither case do these tracking results necessarily mean that the incumbent is now
trailing, only that their opponents’ campaigns are on an upswing.
House
MT-1: Remains a Close Race
The western 1st Congressional District of Montana was newly created after the 2020 census due to population growth, and its first election delivered a closer-than-expected final tally. In that contest, then-former US Interior Secretary and ex-Congressman Ryan Zinke (R) under-performed with his 50-46% win over former US Olympian Monica Tranel (D).
The latest 2024 poll, again featuring the two contenders, shows another similarly close result.
The Noble Predictive Insights survey finds Rep. Zinke leading Ms. Tranel by only a four-point margin (47-43%), with the Libertarian candidate taking three percentage points.
While the Montana Democratic Party originally tried and failed in their lawsuit to disqualify the Libertarian Party from the statewide ballot, in this race the presence of a minor party candidate might be helping their contender.
While the Republican candidate is still favored overall, it appears we are headed for another tight finish.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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