Questionable Texas Poll

Flawed figures dog Cornyn-Paxton contest survey

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A new Texas statewide poll shows Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) trailing Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) in a hypothetical Senate Republican primary, but the survey contains several flaws.

Lake Research and Slingshot Strategies partnered on a poll for the Texas Public Opinion Research organization (reported only as March 2025; 700 TX registered voters) and though the study was designed predominantly to test issues and attitudes, the ballot test between Sen. Cornyn and AG Paxton, showing the incumbent trailing the challenger 38-27% before a Republican vote segment, cannot be considered reliable.

First, there is no indication as to how many people were surveyed as "Republican primary voters" because there is no number disclosure of self-identified Republicans.  Using the percentages answering the partisan identification question means the segment cell could possibly only contain a maximum of 315 respondents, which would be very low for a statewide survey in a place the size of Texas.

Secondly, the pollsters did not test the entire proposed GOP field. US Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) was not included on the ballot question even though he has been firmer in statements about running for the Senate than has Mr. Paxton.

Third, the data gathering period was not identified, nor the data collection method; the latter meaning live interview, Interactive Voice Response system, text or online. Without this information, it is difficult to detect a proper error factor.

Fourth, a four-term Senate incumbent attracting only 28% within his own party on a ballot test is hard to believe, and likely wholly understated, though the Paxton support figure of 38% could be about right.

Fifth, the pollsters exhibited a somewhat liberal bias with regard to the types of questions asked and the descriptive language used, especially when describing the abortion question. The query asked respondents if they identify as pro-choice or anti-choice. Certainly, the anti-choice option would receive less support than if described as pro-life.

The favorability index question responses were also curious, especially relating to Sen. Cornyn. In fact, of the 11 individuals and institutions queried for a favorable or unfavorable rating, Sen. Cornyn finished dead last (21:43%). Again, it is difficult to find credible that a scandal-free elected official who has won six statewide elections (four for US Senate; one for state Attorney General; one for Texas Supreme Court) would perform so badly.

Of all eleven people tested, former US Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Colin Allred, the only Democratic politician on the list, finished with the strongest favorability rating, 37:30% positive to negative. Mr. Allred is the only tested individual or institution to finish with a positive rating even though he lost the Senate race this past November to GOP incumbent Ted Cruz by almost nine percentage points.

In contrast, both President Trump and Vice President Vance are three points down (Trump: 47:50%; Vance: 44:47%), yet the Trump-Vance ticket carried the state by almost 14 percentage points.

For his part, AG Paxton scored a 35:40% index, which is not particularly bad considering he came within a few state Senate votes of being removed from office in 2023. Again, an argument can be made against the Lake/Slingshot reliability factor when seeing an elected official who was almost removed from office largely by members of his own party (at least in the State House of Representatives) enjoying a better standing within the electorate than a sitting incumbent with no personal scandal who has been elected six times to statewide office.

It will be interesting to see if Mr. Paxton ultimately decides to run. While his performance in this Lake/Slingshot poll is stronger than Sen. Cornyn's, which would encourage him, fundraising under the federal election system will not. 

Gone would be the days when a contender could call selected donors and receive major contributions sometimes totaling seven figures as he or she can under Texas election law. Running for Senate, Mr. Paxton will have to fundraise in small increments: $3,500 per election, or a grand total of $10,500, if someone wanted to fully support him in the Republican primary, the Republican runoff (if necessary), and the general election. 

While certain individuals might contribute large dollars to a Super PAC supporting Paxton or opposing Cornyn, they would have no control over how the money is spent.  Furthermore, contributing to an incumbent, as many big donors did for Paxton when he was AG, is much different than contributing major dollars against an incumbent, especially one that many of these same prospective donors have also supported in past campaigns.

Considering Texas will hold its primaries on March 3, 2026, this election campaign will soon be swinging into high gear.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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