Stefanik Eyes Gov Run

Warning bells for New York Dems?

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Yesterday, the Politico publication ran a story reporting that New York US Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) is being courted to run for Governor, and she’s apparently considering the move.

Rep. Stefanik, originally appointed as US Ambassador to the United Nations but then pulled back when it appeared Republicans could lose her Upstate New York House seat in a special election, was subsequently appointed as Chair of the House Republican Leadership. In this position, she coordinates between the elected leadership and the Conference members. It was created for her as a consolation, if you will, for having her UN nomination pulled back, especially when Senate confirmation was virtually assured.

Now, discussion of her running for Governor comes into focus from what is her decidedly blue home state. The last time a Republican won the New York Governorship occurred when then-Gov. George Pataki clinched a third term in 2006. Prior to Mr. Pataki’s tenure, one must return to 1970 to see a Republican, Nelson Rockefeller for the fourth time, elected as New York’s Governor.

It is clear that Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) is vulnerable, but could Stefanik, or any Republican, beat her? In 2022, then-US Representative and now EPA Administrator in the Trump Administration Lee Zeldin performed well, especially on his native Long Island, but lost statewide 53-47%. Still, this was the best Republican gubernatorial performance since then-Gov. Pataki’s final victory in 2006.

On the negative side, the Governor’s favorability numbers have been upside-down for at least part of her tenure. She assumed her office in August of 2021 from her Lt. Governor’s position after then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) was forced to resign because of a personal scandal. Ms. Hochul was then elected in her own right in 2022, defeating Mr. Zeldin as mentioned above. 

The latest published Hochul favorability rating comes from Siena College, in an early March poll conducted through live interviews over the month’s 2nd through 6th period from a sampling universe of 806 NY registered voters. According to this survey, the Governor’s personal favorability index was 40:50% positive to negative. Among the 395 tested Democrats, her ratio is 59:34%, which is low for an incumbent within his or her own party.

In addition to facing what should be a competitive general election, Gov. Hochul will apparently be forced to fight for renomination. It is possible that both Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado and US Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) could launch primary challenges against the Governor. 

The Siena College poll tested a potential Democratic primary and found the Governor leading both Delgado and Torres, 46-11-10%. This result is similar to a Data for Progress survey conducted later in the month (3/26-31; 767 NY likely Democratic primary voters; online) that saw a 51-11-11% ballot test response, again in Gov. Hochul’s favor.

Still, these numbers are not particularly impressive for a sitting Governor in her own party primary. Her best case scenario would be if both men entered the race. That way, the anti-Hochul vote would be split between two candidates, which would allow the Governor to win renomination with a lower percentage.  

Of her two potential Democratic opponents, Mr. Delgado appears the more likely to run. Even though Ms. Hochul chose him as her running mate for the 2022 election, Mr. Delgado says he will not appear with her in the coming election. On the Republican side, in addition to Rep. Stefanik apparently being interested, US Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) had long been touted as a possible gubernatorial candidate. Assuming that Ms. Stefanik enters the Governor’s race and obtains a Trump endorsement, which is likely, Rep. Lawler would be a clear underdog for the party nomination. Under this scenario, his best option would likely be to seek re-election in his 17th Congressional District.

Though Gov. Hochul appears to currently be in a weakened political position, it is probable that she will ultimately be favored to win the Democratic nomination and, in the end, the succeeding general election. 

Republicans may be showing more competitive signs in New York – in November, President Trump improved his 2020 performance by more than 11 percentage points, the highest increase of any state – but the party is still a long way from knocking on the door of an Empire State major victory.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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