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Sun Belt vs. Rust Belt

Updated: May 17

Trump Will Likely Need One Northern Blue State to Swing His Way

Less than half a year out from the fate of the nation being determined — and almost everything is already locked down. Well, almost everything.

Since 43 states are almost assured of how the presidential vote (and therefore the electoral college vote) will go — it's come down to just seven states, neatly divided geographically between North and South, what's being dubbed — The Sun Belt vs. the Rust Belt.

In the Rust Belt — the key states are Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

In the Sun Belt — the critical states are Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.

Without getting into the specific electoral college votes awarded by each state and so forth — it comes down to this simple arithmetic: Trump must sweep the Sun Belt and capture one of the Rust Belt states (it doesn't matter which one). [Caveat: If he were to win Pennsylvania, he could actually lose some combination of Sun Belt states.]

For Trump, the combination of the states he's virtually assured of winning combined with sweeping the Sun Belt would leave him a meager 2 (TWO) votes shy of the needed 270, which Biden would have captured.

There is a total of 538 electoral college votes; 270 is exactly half plus one (269+1) and whoever captures that amount, wins.

Without winning at least one of the Rust Belt states — Trump loses, by two votes, with the final tally being Biden: 270 and Trump: 268.

Essentially, Biden can lose all those Sun Belt states he "won" in 2020, and still come out on top — albeit by a much smaller (but still sufficient) margin. As they say, a win is a win is a win.

Right now, things are trending slightly in Trump's favor in all seven of those states. In the Sunbelt states it is Trump up by 4.5 in Nevada, up by 5 in Arizona, 3.8 in Georgia and 5.4 in North Carolina.

The margins get much tighter for President Trump, however, as the map heads north.

In Wisconsin — Trump is up by just one-half of one point; in Michigan he's up by a slim 1.2 and in Pennsylvania it's Trump ahead by 1.8 (the best of his Rust Belt polling.)


So, Biden just needs to "hold serve" in the Rust belt, and he wins again — because he, too, (and his Communist Party) have sufficient locks on enough states to provide him the winning combination, provided he doesn't lose any of the three.

But there is one small chink in the armor of Team Biden — Pennsylvania. IF Trump could capture that for his column — with its 19 electoral votes — he could actually lose various combinations of the Sun Belt states, still win the electoral college, and thereby the White House.

Nevada has 6 electoral votes, Arizona 11, Georgia 16 and North Carolina 16. Right now, Trump is ahead (see above) in all four (as well as the Rust Belt, but well within the margin of error.)

Since Pennsylvania has 19 electoral college votes, if Trump were to capture it (his strongest Rust Belt polling state as of now), he could lose some various combinations — as long as they wouldn't eclipse 17 electoral college votes (recall: even sweeping the Sun Belt, he would still lose by two [19 electoral votes (PA) minus 2 electoral votes = 17]).

So winning Pennsylvania, Trump could afford to lose Nevada, or Arizona, or Georgia or North Carolina.


There is however one little fluke — a tie! IF Trump wins Pennsylvania, but loses Nevada and Arizona — that would result in a 269-269 tie in the electoral college, and ties are broken in the US House — by each state casting one vote for whichever candidate its congressional delegation desires.

Right now, the current Congressional breakdown of states and which party has the majority control of its state's congressional districts is — GOP 26 | DEM 24. Translated — if it came down to an electoral college tie, Donald Trump would prevail by a single state vote in the US House (presuming GOP House members voted according to party lines in their respective state delegations.)

No matter how this gets looked at, analyzed, and so forth — this US Presidential election is shaping up to be the tightest in US history. America, as patriots understand that nomenclature — is hanging on by the barest of political threads. You can toss out all previous elections and all the propaganda (from both sides) — it's going to come down to one simple equation — whoever gets their voters out in Sun Belt and Rust Belt will win.

And, because of the Communist/Democrats expertise in cheating — Trump will have to get out more than just a majority; he'll have to overcome the "margin of steal," as well.

Gary Michael Voris holds a graduate degree, Cum Laude, from the Pontifical University of St. Thomas Aquinas in Rome. Voris earned multiple awards for 40+ years of news media experience for writing, producing, and investigative work from the Associated Press, Detroit Press Club, Michigan Broadcasters Association, as well as four news Emmys in multiple categories. He graduated from the University of Notre Dame in 1983 with an undergraduate major in Communications and a minor in History.

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