Population shifts appear poised to accelerate US political realignment
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The current mid-decade population calculations for the coming 2030 census and national reapportionment not only mean a potential major political shift in the distribution of congressional districts – they also suggest the possibility of significant changes to the next decade's presidential elections.
As we covered on Tuesday, the Brennan Center for Justice's recently-released 2030 census reapportionment projection reveals what could become a major partisan flip in the Republicans' favor. Diving deeper into the data, it is clear that such shifts would also alter presidential campaign strategies for the national elections coming in the '30s.
The big changes would affect, in a major way, the electoral vote (EV) counts within the Democrats' two largest voting states, California and New York. The Brennan Center calculations, and those of the American Redistricting Project (which released similar, but not identical, projections in October), see the Democrats losing six electoral votes from the two entities – down four in California, and minus two in New York. Looking at the estimated congressional district gains in the two large Republican strongholds of Texas and Florida (each state would gain four seats according to the BC calculations) adds an even more significant electoral vote increase, presumably for a Republican presidential nominee, as soon as the 2032 national election.
If the Brennan Center calculations were in effect for the 2024 election, for example, President-Elect Trump's 312-226 EV victory would have been even larger.
Adding the changes in California, Florida, New York and Texas – along with other states that are projected to gain or lose single seats – the Trump EV victory total would have ballooned to a 322-216 margin. This means the net swing would have been a huge 20 electoral votes just from the population shifts projected for the next census and reapportionment.
To put in perspective just how large a margin is seen in this projected swing, the 2020 census saw only seven congressional districts change states. The result added a net three electoral votes to the Republican total, boosting a starting base of what became a Trump nomination to 235 from his actual 2020 total of 232 EVs.
Looking at the projected 2030 list of 14 states that will gain or lose representation from one to four seats apiece helps illustrate the evolving trends. Among Arizona, California, Florida, Idaho, Illinois, Minnesota, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Utah and Wisconsin, only two of these states – Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (both losing one seat) – adversely affects the Republican vote count when overlayed with the 2024 Trump election.
At this point, we can mention that the American Redistricting Project (ARP) arrived at a slightly different calculation.
This organization projected both Georgia and Tennessee, whose electorates voted for Trump, gaining one congressional seat apiece; while Wisconsin holds firm with an eight-district delegation. ARP found New York losing three seats and Florida gaining three. The Brennan Center found New York losing two and Florida gaining four. ARP also projected Illinois losing two seats as compared to the Brennan Center calculation, suggesting that the Land of Lincoln would lose one.
Obviously, much will change in terms of population shift in the latter part of the current decade to alter the final outcome of the coming 2030 census reapportionment; therefore, the differences between the BC and ARP calculations, at this point, are negligible.
Yet, the core population patterns – of great swings shifting away from the Northeast, Midwest and Pacific Coast to the South and interior West – look to significantly favor Republicans, and that trend is unlikely to change.
Taking the ultimate geographical shifts into account, we will see heightened political activity designed to enhance political persuasion in the affected states. Therefore, partisan messaging in the 2026 and '28 election cycles will become another significant factor in determining whether the 2024 election, as some political observers believe, has launched a national political realignment that may culminate in the next census reapportionment.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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