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Those Dang Polls!

Updated: May 17

There is a hidden danger in the polling data for Trump — and no one is really talking about it.


The tendency for partisan supporters on each side to glom on to polling data and spin it their way is inevitable in politics. But when it comes to looking at data through rose-colored glasses, Trump supporters better be very, very wary.

It's all in the details.


POLL PROBLEMS

Polling agencies have had their challenges the past couple of election cycles in calling a multitude of races. They have either been flat out wrong on the winner, or notably off on the margins of victory. Part of the problem is electronic/technical. It's just more difficult to physically talk to a human being on a phone because enormous numbers of people won't answer a call from an unknown caller on their cell phone.


That difficulty, of course, cuts both ways — for and against each major party and candidate.


But, in the "Trump is crushing Biden" euphoria touted loudly and continually on conservative social media sites — there is a real and present danger for Trump. It's who is being polled.


Polling outfits go after three/four major types of voters when collecting data — adults in general, registered voters, likely voters and very-likely voters.


And here is the rub for the Trumpies!


TRUMP HAS THE "WRONG" SUPPORTERS

The numbers being reported by media outlets are from the first, most basic, least reliable and predictable group — adults. There is no guarantee some of these people vote, and many never have. In fact — some of this group is what helped power Trump to his 2016 upset of Hillary. They were completely overlooked by pollsters.

According to exit polls — an insufficient number of them turned out in 2020 to overcome the "margin of theft," allowing the Dems to work their "magic."


Among this group, Trump is edging Biden by two points (46%-44%) — and that has held consistently for the past number of months. However, a sampling of merely adults is not the sweet spot when it comes to predictive, reliable polling.


That designation belongs to either likely voters or most likely voters, and in this much- coveted demographic — Biden is, well, frankly, kicking Trump's rear (49%-45%). Even in the less reliable registered voters category, Biden is up over Trump by one point (46%-45%).


These numbers are from the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll.


WHO IS HATED MORE?

Another eye-popping data point for Team MAGA — favorability. It's true, Biden's favorability ratings are in the toilet — hovering in the high 30s to 40%. Likewise, his unfavorable ratings are not exactly what you would want running for re-election — 51%.


No doubt — Biden is not popular or liked.


However — that statement is even more true for Trump. Fewer people have a favorable opinion of him (33%), seven points lower than Biden. And, more people have a negative view of him (58%) than they do Biden; seven points higher, in fact.


In short — neither man is liked or viewed more favorably than unfavorably. However, Trump is bringing up the rear in this measure — trailing Biden by a 14-point margin, and given that most people already know an awful lot about both Biden and Trump — it is very unlikely that will change, at least substantially.


The concern — and it is big for Team MAGA — is a not insignificant number of voters go to the polls and vote their "gut." It comes down to personality and impression and all that; the "human" aspects of voting — it's as emotional (sometimes more) as it is logical.


The Communist Left certainly votes by their gut because they want control. They actually don't care if gas is more expensive; if housing or rent is getting out reach; if Bidenflation is the price that has to be paid; if millions and millions of illegals cascade across the border — all that matters is the defeat of America (in this case personified by Trump, however accurately or not.)


THE EMOTIONAL VOTE

The Left votes on almost pure emotion — they hate America and all that it stands for. They fear a Trump victory more than they fear eternal damnation (which they don't believe in.) And hate and fear are powerful motivators — they indicate a strong desire to vote and win.

In their view, Trump must be stopped at all costs, regardless. It matters little if it's legal or illegal, moral or immoral, ethical or unethical — their lust for power and the use of that power to destroy fills them with a rage — a rage Trumpies too often dismiss laughingly as — TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome.)


Come election day and when one of these men captures the needed 270 Electoral College votes — conservatives who are not properly paying attention to the deep details of polling may find — again — that he who laughs last, laughs best — with the laughter arising from the Communist camp.


Gary Michael Voris holds a graduate degree, Cum Laude, from the Pontifical University of St. Thomas Aquinas in Rome. Voris earned multiple awards for 40+ years of news media experience for writing, producing, and investigative work from the Associated Press, Detroit Press Club, Michigan Broadcasters Association, as well as four news Emmys in multiple categories. He graduated from the University of Notre Dame in 1983 with an undergraduate major in Communications and a minor in History.


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