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PRESIDENT
Vice President Harris
Bloomberg News is reporting that presumptive presidential nominee Kamala Harris has narrowed her selection for the second slot on the national Democratic ticket to three individuals: Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), and Governors Josh Shapiro (PA) and Tim Walz (MN). If the report is valid, it means that Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Governors J.B. Pritzker (IL), Andy Beshear (KY), and Roy Cooper (NC) have been eliminated from consideration. It is likely that Sen. Kelly and Gov. Shapiro are the leading choices.
SENATE
Arizona
Tuesday's primary in Arizona produced official nominees for both parties, and the Senate race is now set for the November campaign. There was no mystery on the Democratic side, as Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) was unopposed in his primary election. Much of the drama from the race evaporated when Independent incumbent Kyrsten Sinema decided not to seek re-election for a second term; a three-way general election would have sent the campaign in unpredictable directions.
On the Republican side, as expected, former news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake won the open Senate GOP nomination, but her victory margin over Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb was far from overwhelming. Though the results won't be final for some time – probably weeks under the modern system of mail balloting – the current numbers find Lake with a 55-40% edge over Sheriff Lamb.
The Lake victory appears assured, but seeing approximately 45% of Republicans support another candidate is not what she needed to enhance her underdog chances against Rep. Gallego.
Minnesota
Senator and former 2020 presidential candidate Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) has never been considered a potential political target in this year's Senate race; now, a new Survey USA poll confirms that she is safe for re-election.
According to the ballot test results, Sen. Klobuchar holds a 55-33% lead over former NBA basketball player Royce White (R), and a similar 54-33% advantage when paired against banker and retired Navy officer Joe Fraser (R).
Sen. Klobuchar will have an official general election opponent when the Republicans nominate their candidate on August 13.
Tennessee
Senator Marsha Blackburn easily won renomination in the Republican primary, capturing over 90% of the vote and winning all 95 of the state's counties. She will now face state Rep. Gloria Johnson (D-Nashville) in the general election. Representative Johnson defeated multiple Democratic candidates to win with a 70% vote total. Senator Blackburn is the heavy favorite to win the general election.
HOUSE
AL-2
Alabama's new 2nd Congressional District was drawn to elect an African-American Democrat, but a recent Strategy Management poll for the Alabama Families PAC found Republican Caroleen Dobson polling close to race favorite Shomari Figures (D).
The ballot test gives Mr. Figures just a 37-34% edge. Figures is still favored in a seat that Kamala Harris should easily carry over Donald Trump, but Dobson's effort may be worthy of more attention as the campaign season moves into prime time.
Arizona
Hotly-contested congressional primaries were decided Tuesday night, and in at least two cases, competitive general elections will follow.
In the tight 1st District, Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) was renominated in the Republican primary, but with just 63% of the vote — a surprisingly low tally considering he faced a pair of minor opponents who barely spent more than $100,000 apiece. The district slightly favors Republicans, but we can again expect a major general election battle in this Scottsdale-anchored district.
For the Democrats, who featured a highly-competitive five-way primary, former state Representative and physician Amish Shah, who resigned from the legislature to concentrate on his congressional campaign and lagged in the published polling, has claimed the Democratic nomination.
With over 93% of the vote counted, Shah has a two-point lead over race favorite Andrei Cherni, the former Arizona Democratic Party chairman. This translates to a 1,592-vote margin, which is enough to earn the nomination projection. Former news anchor Marlene Galan-Woods, widow of the late Attorney General Grant Woods (D), is a close third, just 196 votes behind Cherni.
In the 2nd District, freshman Rep. Eli Crane (R-Oro Valley), one of the leaders in the movement to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, saw no after-effects of his action as he easily won renomination over former Yavapai County Supervisor Jack Smith, garnering over 80% of the vote. Representative Crane will now glide through the general election in this safe Republican district that covers most of eastern Arizona.
In District 3, the predicted close contest to succeed Rep. Gallego materialized. With outside support from a pro-crypto currency PAC and the Democratic Majority for Israel PAC (DMFI), it appears that former Phoenix City Councilwoman Yassamin Ansari has a 467-vote lead over former state Senate Minority Leader Raquel Teran with 93% of the vote counted. Though not yet projected, it appears Ansari is still in the driver's seat to win the Democratic nomination, which is tantamount to claiming the seat in November.
Representative Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) won renomination against minor Republican opposition, but his 60% total is not what the Congressman would have preferred. He will again face a tough challenge in the general election from his 2022 opponent, former state Senator Kirsten Engel (D). The 2022 race was decided by just 5,232 votes, so another close finish in the southeastern 6th CD is again forecast.
With Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Peoria) retiring from Congress and easily winning the Republican nomination for her Maricopa County Supervisorial district last night, the 8th District became the host to a very nasty Republican primary battle. The subject of most of the attacks, Abe Hamadeh, has been projected as the GOP nomination winner and will succeed Rep. Lesko.
With most votes counted, Mr. Hamadeh has a secure four-point lead over 2022 US Senate candidate Blake Masters. State House Speaker Ben Toma (R-Peoria) is close behind Masters, while former US Rep. Trent Franks trails in fourth place, some six percentage points behind the race leader.
MN-5
It has been a bit surprising that the American Israel Public Affairs Committee's Super PAC affiliate, the United Democracy Project – which has spent millions of dollars targeting anti-Israel Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) and Cori Bush (D-MO) – has spent nothing against one of its most vociferous congressional adversaries, Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis).
Now, a new poll suggests why there has been so little outside involvement against Rep. Omar or for her top Democratic primary opponent, former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels. At the outset, this looked like a competitive challenge, considering Samuels lost to Omar by just two percentage points in 2022. However, the current data suggest otherwise.
According to Rep. Omar's internal poll from Lake Research Partners, the ballot test projects the Congresswoman holds a 60-33% lead over Samuels. The fact that the incumbent's lead is so large dissuades opposition involvement since the die appears already cast for the August 13 primary election.
MO-1
Apparently, the strong outside group influence aimed at defeating Missouri US Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis) – roughly a 9:2 ratio in millions of dollars – is being well-spent. A new Mellman Group poll sees former St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell leading Rep. Bush, 48-42%, as the candidates steam toward next week's August 6 primary election.
The Bell lead has increased five points since a previous poll was published in June. The chief funder of the anti-Bush efforts is the United Democracy Project, which is the political arm of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). This group also led the charge to defeat another anti-Israel incumbent on June 25, Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY).
OH-9
A just-released Noble Predictive Insights survey finds 21-term US Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) posting a ten-point, 47-37%, advantage over state Rep. Derek Merrin (R-Monclova Township).
The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates Ohio's 9th Congressional District as R+6. In contrast, President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are tied at 46-46% within the district. The Republicans and their allies are expected to bring in outside dollars to compete with Rep. Kaptur, which is needed since she has almost a 5:1 advantage in fundraising.
The race will end in a competitive finish, but Rep. Kaptur's longstanding incumbency continues to provide her an advantage in a district that should be trending Republican.
Tennessee
All incumbents were renominated in the Tennessee primary. Six of the nine House members ran unopposed in their respective primary elections. Representative Andy Ogles (R-Columbia) faced the most difficult challenge, but he defeated Davidson Metro Councilwoman Courtney Johnston (R) with a 56-44% vote margin even though he was outspent in the campaign. Representatives Scott DesJarlais (R-Sherwood) and Steve Cohen (D-Memphis) each won their primaries with more than 70% of the vote.
VA-5
The official recount that US Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg) has requested and financed produced the predicted result. That is, state Sen. John McGuire's (R-Manakin Sadot) certified 374-vote victory stands, and now the count has passed every official test. McGuire is now the prohibitive favorite to win the general election and succeed Rep. Good in the House.
GOVERNOR
New Hampshire
Emerson College tested the New Hampshire electorate in anticipation of the state's late September 10 primary election. The poll results found former US Senator Kelly Ayotte leading ex-state Senate President Chuck Morse, 41-26% for the open Republican gubernatorial nomination. On the Democratic side, former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig has a 33-21% advantage over Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington. The two primary winners will square off in November to succeed retiring Gov. Chris Sununu (R).
STATES
Arizona
Arizona Republicans have consistently out-registered Democrats over the years, and the latest released pre-primary figures find the GOP posting its strongest margin of the last three election cycles.
The Grand Canyon State also features a large Independent and minor parties' registration category. It is this latter group that now makes the state so politically close. According to the Secretary of State's report, Republicans now claim 35.4% of the Arizona registered voters, which is 6.3 points higher than the Democrats' 29.1% figure. The Independent/Other category has the second-highest contingent, at 33.9%.
The R-to-D split is almost three full percentage points higher when compared to the 2020 election, when President Biden scratched out a tight 49.4–49.1% victory over then-President Donald Trump.
LOCALITIES
New York City
While the New York City Mayor's primary election is not until next June, the campaign to oust Mayor Eric Adams (D) is already well underway. Earlier this week, NYC Comptroller Brad Lander announced that he will join the Democratic primary, hoping to deny the incumbent renomination. Two others, former NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer (D) and state Sen. Zellnor Myrie (D-Brooklyn) have formed mayoral exploratory committees.
The bigger name, however, who is expected to eventually join the race and begin a political comeback, is former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D), who was forced to resign his position in 2021 owing to a sexual harassment scandal. Should Cuomo enter the race, the political battle will become a free-for-all and a media sideshow.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
Keep us posted, Jim. And thank you.