Weekly Roundup – May 3, 2025

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SENATE

Illinois

Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) and US Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) each announced their support for Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton’s (D) open Senate campaign. With Sen. Dick Durbin (D) retiring, we expect to see a crowded Democratic primary form irrespective of Pritzker and Duckworth making an early endorsement. 

Those believed to be interested in running include a trio of US Representatives, Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago), Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg), and Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville), and potentially state Comptroller Susana Mendoza, and Secretary of State and former US Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias. 

Several weeks ago, Attorney General Kwame Raoul (D) made a public statement saying he would not run for the Senate even if Mr. Durbin decided to retire. US Rep. Darin LaHood (R-Peoria) is reportedly considering a run for the Republican nomination.

Minnesota 

US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) announced that she will enter Minnesota’s open US Senate race next year. The Congresswoman will at least face Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen in next year’s Democratic primary.

Ms. Flanagan is off to a strong start, but a Flanagan-Craig-Franzen race will be hotly contested and will likely go beyond the party endorsing convention to the August primary. 

One person will not be running even after expressing public interest in doing so.  Dave Wellstone, the son of the late Sen. Paul Wellstone (D), instead declared his support for Rep. Craig after her candidacy declaration. With Sen. Tina Smith (D) retiring, this will be a race to watch. 

Ohio

Former Congressman Tim Ryan (D), who lost to J.D. Vance in the 2022 Ohio US Senate race, said he will not challenge appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R). He did not, however, rule out a bid for Governor so long as Lt. Gov. Jim Tressel (R), his former football coach, does not run. 

Texas 

The Houston Chronicle is running a story about a new poll that Trump 2020 campaign manager Brad Parscale released to an HC reporter about the upcoming Texas Senate Republican primary. Though the methodology is not fully described, the ballot test is somewhat consistent with other polling at least to the point that incumbent Sen. John Cornyn is trailing Attorney General Ken Paxton. 

The ballot test posts Paxton to a major 50-33% advantage over Sen. Cornyn.  In the rather unlikely event that President Trump would endorse the incumbent, the Paxton lead would shrink to 44-38%. US Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston), who appears to be readying a formal Senate announcement, was again not included in the poll.

HOUSE

MI-13

The Democratic primary race against two-term incumbent Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) is already getting hot.  This week state Rep. Donavan McKinney (D-Detroit) announced his congressional candidacy joining the battle to deny Mr. Thanedar renomination for a third term.  In the race is former state Senator Adam Hollier (D) who lost to Thanedar 28-23% in a crowded open seat 2022 Democratic primary.  Mr. Hollier declared his candidacy in 2024 but failed to qualify for the ballot due to submitting an insufficient number of qualified petition signatures.

Certainly, this will be a competitive race, but the more candidates entering the contest, the easier it will be for Thanedar to win a plurality victory.  Winning the Democratic nomination in the 13th District is tantamount to clinching the general election.

MN-2

With Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) vacating the 2nd District for a US Senate run, a host of candidates are already coming forward to express interest in running for the open congressional seat. 

Three Democrats appear as sure candidates.  State Sen. Matt Klein (D-Mendota Heights), former state Senator Matt Little, and businessman Mike Norton have all indicated they will soon join the developing candidate field. For the Republicans, two-time GOP nominee Tyler Kistner indicates that he will return for a third attempt to win the seat. Joe Teirab, who was the party’s 2024 nominee, has also made statements suggesting that he is considering making a political comeback. 

This will be a competitive election, but the Democrats will begin with at least a slight edge. Kamala Harris carried this seat last November with a 52-46% margin over President Trump. Rep. Craig defeated Mr. Teirab with 56% of the vote in her down ballot congressional race.

VA-11 

Nine-term US Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax), who announced through written statement that he will not seek re-election in 2026 due to a recurrence of cancer, leaves an open seat that will be decided in Democratic primary. 

Mr. Connolly also said he will soon resign his position as the Ranking Minority Member of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. He intends to serve the balance of his final congressional term, however. We can expect a crowded northern Virginia Democratic primary to form for the regular June 2026 nominating election.

GOVERNOR

Michigan

A new National Research poll (4/8-10; 500 MI likely Republican primary voters) projects US Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) to a 35-29% Republican primary lead over 2022 gubernatorial nominee Tudor Dixon. Rep. James is an announced gubernatorial candidate, while Ms. Dixon has so far been non-committal about what might be her near future political plans. No other candidate even reached the 12% support plateau.

The Michigan Governor’s race will be unique among the 38 gubernatorial contests scheduled for the 2025-26 election cycle. While both major parties will of course nominate candidates, three-term Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan is also in the race as an Independent candidate. His presence and name ID from the state’s largest metropolitan area suggests that he has the capacity to draw a large number of votes and make the general election a legitimate three-way race.

Minnesota 

Gov. Tim Walz, the 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee, is publicly indicating that he will seek a third term next year. Though Minnesota has no term limit law pertaining to the Governor’s office, none of the 40 Governors before Mr. Walz served more than two full terms. Republicans are expected to field a credible candidate to make a serious run for the position.

New Jersey 

Several new polls were released again showing US Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) leading the crowded Democratic gubernatorial primary but she commands less than 20% support. The Global Strategy Group actually surveyed for two of the candidates, Ms. Sherill, and her congressional colleague, US Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff).  Rutgers University conducted the other April statewide poll.

All of the ballot test results find Rep. Sherrill leading but only one survey, her own internal poll, finds her breaking the 20% mark. The other candidates, all within single digits of the lead in most polling are Rep. Gottheimer, Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka. Close behind is New Jersey Education Association president and former Montclair Mayor Sean Spiller, while former state Senate President Steve Sweeney lags well back. 

The winner of the June 10th plurality primary will then face the likely Republican primary winner, 2021 gubernatorial nominee and former state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, in the 2025 general election. 

New York

A recent Grayhouse polling firm survey of New York voters (4/22-24; 826 NY registered voters; 400 oversample of Republican primary voters; live interview & text) finds US Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) leading Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) by a 44-7% count for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. Both Representatives say they are considering the Governor’s race but neither has announced any definitive plans. 

In a preliminary test of a Stefanik direct challenge to Gov. Kathy Hochul (D), the Grayhouse survey finds the incumbent leading the Congresswoman 46-40%.  Against Rep. Lawler, the Governor’s advantage would be 45-38%. 

South Dakota 

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy released a new survey of what could become a Republican gubernatorial primary (4/9-11; 500 SD likely Republican primary voters; live interview) and found a very tight potential race. 

Gov. Larry Rhoden (R), who ascended to his position from the Lt. Governor’s slot when then-Gov. Kristi Noem resigned to become the national Homeland Security Secretary, has not yet indicated whether he will seek a full term as Governor next year. At-large US Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell) is a potential candidate as is Attorney General Marty Jackley (R). 

According to the early Mason-Dixon poll, Rep. Johnson would lead Gov. Rhoden and AG Jackley by a slight 28-27-18% count. The South Dakota race will become yet another interesting gubernatorial primary campaign.

STATE AND LOCAL

Pittsburgh

Several polls have been released showing Allegheny County Controller Corey O’Connor (D) substantially leading Pittsburgh Mayor Ed Gainey (D). New data, however, coming from the Gainey camp finds a very different result. According to an Upswing Poll (week of 4/21; 402 Pittsburgh likely voters; live interview and text), Mayor Gainey has overtaken Mr. O’Connor and leads his battle for re-election with a 49-42% margin. 

In response, the O’Connor campaign spokesman indicated the race has closed, as they expected, but the Mayor is still trailing by four points according to their campaign internal data.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

Editor's note:

HOW SOULS AND LIBERTY WILL MOVE FORWARD THE NEXT FOUR YEARS

There can be no doubt we have witnessed an extraordinary moment in the history of the United States and the world. The election of Donald Trump to a second Presidential term is a great victory for Christian patriots, but it is not a complete or final victory. Rather, it is a reprieve from the ceaseless assaults on life, liberty and faith we have had to endure for four years.

Donald Trump is president once again, and his decisions, Cabinet selections, and force of personality are shaping the United States and the world in ways we could only dream of.

We have a Heaven-sent opportunity to step up and ensure this victory is not merely a one-off, but the first of many and the foundation of a lasting legacy of patriotic, Christian, pro-family policies.

Souls and Liberty will be part of that effort, but we cannot do it without you. It will require reporting and activism that YOU can be a part of.

Can you step up and support us? Just once – a one-time donation is very valuable. Or, better yet, support us every month with a recurring donation. Thank you, and may God bless you.

Stephen Wynne

Editor-in-Chief, Souls and Liberty