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EARLY VOTING
Early-Vote Analysis
Multiple analyses of early-vote totals indicate that women are voting in greater numbers than men. However, while the raw numbers denote such, the historical trends suggest something slightly different.
When comparing the gender participation segments from the previous presidential year of 2020 to this year, women are up just two-tenths of one percent, while men are up one-half of one percent. This data comes from the Target Early / TargetSmart organization, and is based on more than 55 million early votes cast for the 2024 election.
Compared to the 2022 midterm, women are up slightly more than one-half a point, while men are down by that same amount. Perhaps the more significant finding is the increase in rural voting, which appears evident around the country, as well as the decrease detected in urban voter participation.
PRESIDENT
Pennsylvania
A total of six current polls from five different Keystone State pollsters all find former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania ballot test results. The range is relatively wide.
The Oct. 27-30 Echelon Insights survey posts Mr. Trump to a 51-46% count on the multi-candidate ballot. Diverging farthest from the Echelon results is an Oct. 24-28 Fox News poll, which suggests the two candidates are tied with 48% apiece.
Viewed together, the two are a good example of how different pollsters can arrive at significantly different results, even when testing the same race during the same relative time frame. With so many polls showing many different outcomes regarding the various campaigns, it is now time to sit back and let the actual votes determine the final result.
SENATE
Arizona
Earlier this week, Souls and Liberty covered a new poll of the open US Senate race in Arizona showing former news anchor Kari Lake (R) running slightly ahead of Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix). The Oct. 26-28 Data Orbital poll forecast Ms. Lake holding a one-point edge over Rep. Gallego.
Now, we see another survey arriving at the same conclusion. AtlasIntel has just released the results of its Oct. 30-31 Arizona poll, and they show Ms. Lake holding a small one-point lead.
An earlier AtlastIntel poll, taken Oct. 25-29, saw the opposite result, showing Rep. Gallego leading by one percentage point.
Meanwhile, an Oct. 28-30 Noble Predictive Insights survey found Rep. Gallego with a four-point edge over Ms. Lake.
Though all polls, pre-October, gave Rep. Gallego substantial leads, there is now significant data showing a closing of the race. While Gallego is still the likely winner, this race may now join a couple of the Arizona House races in political overtime.
Michigan
Two recent surveys of the Michigan electorate have produced similar, yet contrasting, conclusions.
An Oct. 28-29 Mitchell Research and Communications poll, taken for the Michigan News Source, sees former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) leading Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing), 49-47%.
Meanwhile, an Oct. 25-29 AtlasIntel survey finds Slotkin outpacing Rogers, 49-47%.
This is an excellent example of two professional pollsters testing the same electorate at the same time and arriving at the opposite conclusion. This makes us remember that polls give us a broad snapshot within a stated margin of error at the time a survey is conducted, and reminds us that surveys are meant to show trends over a long period, as opposed to who might be leading a campaign at a given time.
Missouri
Is the Hawley-Kunce contest becoming competitive? A new poll suggests this may be a possibility. An Oct. 23-26 GQR tracking survey conducted for the Lucas Kunce (D) campaign sees their client trailing Sen. Josh Hawley (R) by only a 49-46% margin.
Previous full polls, however, see the Senator maintaining low double-digit leads.
Kunce has a strong fundraising operation that generated more than $20 million in campaign receipts through the end of September – just $6 million behind Sen. Hawley. Another $4 million comes from outside sources, 90% of which has gone to either promote Hawley or attack Kunce.
Missouri's recent voting history suggests that Sen. Hawley should win a comfortable victory, likely landing in the mid-50s with Kunce in the lower 40s.
Nebraska
The latest Siena College / New York Times Nebraska survey finds former President Donald Trump holding a 14-point lead in his statewide race against VP Kamala Harris, while appointed Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) enjoys an 18-point advantage in his electoral quest to serve the balance of the current term.
Senator Deb Fischer (R), who has become embroiled in a tight and bitter race with Independent Dan Osborn, conversely leads by only two percentage points. Osborn, who rejects accusations that, though a registered Independent, he is actually a Democrat, is now running ads saying he supports former President Trump's tax and border policies.
This race remains one to watch on election night.
Nevada
Since the beginning of June, 26 polls have been conducted of the Nevada Senate race and incumbent Jacky Rosen (D) has led in all, with an average edge of eight percentage points.
A new OnMessage survey, however, tells a different story.
This poll sees Republican challenger Sam Brown pulling into a tie with Sen. Rosen, at 48-48%.
While the contest has been getting closer, with Mr. Brown typically shaving off half of Sen. Rosen's previously-healthy lead, no other ballot test result has shown the race tied.
Therefore, the OnMessage poll could be an outlier, or it possibly could be detecting the onset of a Republican surge.
So far – and for the first time since 2020 early voting – more Republicans have cast their ballots than Democrats in Nevada. As a point of reference, the presidential ballot test also showed former President Trump leading, 50-46%.
HOUSE
CO-8
When the Colorado Redistricting Commission members drew the new seat that their state was awarded in the 2020 census, the intent was to construct a highly-competitive Congressional District that both parties could win in any election.
The new 8th District is performing as designed. In the 2022 election, then-state Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Thornton) won the congressional election with a bare 48.4 – 47.7% plurality. A new survey finds that the 2024 contest could be just as close.
Emerson College just returned an Oct. 24-26 poll that projects Rep. Caraveo to hold a slight 48-46% edge, similar to her previous victory margin, over state Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Westminster).
Previous September surveys first found Rep. Caraveo holding a three-point edge, while another showed an even contest. Expect another plurality victory here on Tuesday, regardless of who wins.
MI-7
The race to represent Michigan's open 7th Congressional District promises to end in close fashion on Tuesday.
The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates MI-7 as R+4, and statisticians with The Down Ballot political blog rank it the sixth-most-vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference.
Despite the rating numbers, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) won the current version of the district in 2022 with a 52-46% victory over then-state Sen. Tom Barrett (R), who returns in the open seat contest. Representative Slotkin is now the Democratic nominee for Michigan's open US Senate seat.
Emerson College just published what may be the final public poll for this contest. The Oct. 24-26 survey sees Barrett again holding a lead over former state Senator and ex-gubernatorial chief of staff Curtis Hertel (D), 47-45%.
Barrett has led in all public polls for the race with a range of two-to-seven points. A GOP conversion win here would be a huge boost to the Republicans' quest to maintain their slim House majority.
NY-17
Freshman New York US Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River), one of 2024's most-endangered House incumbents, has received some good news from an Oct. 24-26 Emerson College poll. The ballot test found Rep. Lawler leading former US Rep. Mondaire Jones (D) by five percentage points, 49-44%.
Representative Lawler unseated then-Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Sean Patrick Maloney in 2022 in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rated as D+7. The Down Ballot political blog ranks the seat as the sixth-most-vulnerable district in the House Republican Conference.
OH-13
The Akron-anchored northern Ohio 13th Congressional District was created as an open seat on the 2021 redistricting bill.
In 2022, then-state Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) defeated Republican Madison Gesiotto Gilbert (R) by a 53-47% count, in what was a better Democratic performance than initially predicted.
This year, former state legislator Kevin Coughlin is the GOP candidate, and a new survey suggests he has moved into parity with Rep. Sykes, even though he is being outspent by a 3:1 ratio, including all "outside money" on both sides.
The late October co/efficient poll gives Mr. Coughlin a one-point edge over Rep. Sykes (46-45%). Former President Trump also leads VP Kamala Harris by a single point.
In the Senate race, from the district that Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) would represent today if he were a US Representative, Brown leads Republican Bernie Moreno by only three points (49-46%). This is one more House race that will draw attention on election night.
PA-8
A new Noble Predictive Insights survey finds six-term US Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic/Scranton) leading Republican challenger Rob Bresnahan, 50-43%, in the race for Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District.
The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates PA-8 as R+8. The Down Ballot political blog ranks the seat as the fourth-most-vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. At this point in early voting, more Democrats than Republicans have cast ballots, which is typical for Pennsylvania.
Republicans in this district are, however, up seven points from their 2020 performance, and ten points when compared to 2022. Conversely, Democrats are off almost seven points from 2020 and 11 points from 2022.
Representative Cartwright has won his last two elections with 52% in 2020, and 51% in 2022. The 2024 election will likely end closer than the Noble poll suggests, but Rep. Cartwright still must be considered the favorite to win another term.
GOVERNOR
Tennessee
Three-term Tennessee Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville), who is a sure bet to win re-election on Tuesday, is indicating that he will enter the open 2026 Governor's race and will officially announce his political intentions soon after the current election concludes. We can expect to see a crowded Republican field vying to replace term-limited incumbent, Gov. Bill Lee (R).
When Rose makes his announcement, he will be the second House member to already make clear he will not seek re-election in 2026. Representative Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), in an earlier public comment indicating that the next term will be his last, was the first to declare that he will not be a candidate in the next election.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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