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SENATE
Nebraska
A new Impact Research poll was released this week, showing the same pattern we've seen in other recent surveys. Again, the numbers suggest that Sen. Deb Fischer (R) is inexplicably in political trouble. Whereas the same poll finds Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris 58-38%, Independent Dan Osborn continues to forge small leads. Here, he tops Sen. Fischer, 48-46%.
Entering the race to help boost the Senator's prospects is the ESAFund Super PAC, formerly known as the Ending Spending Action Fund. The organization announced it is laying down $2 million for further advertising in the Nebraska Senate race, likely in the form of ads to negatively define Mr. Osborn. Senator Pete Ricketts' (R) family were the principal funders of the organization, so it would make sense they would come to Sen. Fischer's aid.
Texas
Both Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) have spent millions of dollars in their respective campaigns, and now, outside organizations are coming to the Lone Star State to tip the balance in the Senator's favor. Counting the independent money spent for Cruz and against Allred, the aggregate figure is $17.4 million, but it is virtually all one-sided. The pro-Allred/anti-Cruz category spending is a mere fraction of the Republican's total at $470,000. With polls suggesting a close race, expect the Democratic/left-of-center groups to quickly increase their involvement.
Florida Atlantic University is one of the many polling entities testing the Texas Senate race, and like the others, its survey data suggests a looming close finish. The university poll projects Sen. Ted Cruz (R) to be holding only a 46-43% lead over US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas), with 11% undecided.
As has been the case around the country, the Democrats are emphasizing the abortion issue, while the Cruz campaign – like that of former President Donald Trump – is hitting the transgender issue, in addition to crime and the border crisis. It is not clear if transgender policy is a vote-driver, which has caused some to question the Cruz strategy. The same poll finds Mr. Trump leading Kamala Harris, 50-45%. Both Republicans appear to be under-polling.
HOUSE
CA-49
Until this week, Republicans had some hope that their candidate for the Golden State's 49th Congressional District, auto dealer Matt Gunderson, might have "upset potential." Gunderson came very close to winning an area state Senate seat in 2022, and the coastal Southern California district – on paper, at least – appears moderately competitive.
A newly-released Survey USA poll conducted for the San Diego Union Tribune and KGTV-Channel 10, however, finds three-term Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano) posting a healthy 53-41% advantage over Mr. Gunderson. In 2022, Rep. Levin was re-elected with 52.6% of the vote.
The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the San Diego-Orange County district as D+5, but Rep. Levin has been able to slightly outperform the domain's voter history.
CO-8
Last week we covered a survey from Emerson College, polling for The Hill newspaper and two Denver television stations, that projected freshman US Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Thornton) and state Rep. Gabe Evans (R) falling into a flat tie, 44-44%.
Countering that data is a new survey from the Colorado Community Research organization, which finds Rep. Caraveo – who won her seat two years ago with a plurality victory of less than one percentage point – leading within this weighted polling sample by a 48-45% margin.
There is no doubt this will be a close race, as the seat was drawn to be a swing district. The data suggests that Rep. Caraveo has a slight edge, but this is a highly-competitive contest that will be decided in political prime time.
NJ-7
When formidable potential northern New Jersey contenders decided earlier this year not to enter the Democratic congressional primary – thus leaving the nomination to former New Jersey Working Families Executive Director Sue Altman (D) – it looked like freshman Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield) would have an easier 2024 re-election battle than expected. A new poll might suggest otherwise.
The Global Strategy Group, polling for the Altman campaign, released the results of its latest internal poll, which finds the Congressman leading Ms. Altman with only a two point margin, 47-45%. It is unclear if any push statements were used on the poll questionnaire. It will be curious to see if the Kean campaign quickly releases survey results of its own to counter this data.
NM-2
In the Land of Enchantment's typically tight 2nd Congressional District, freshman New Mexico Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-Las Cruces) has opened a large lead over former US Rep. Yvette Herrell (R), based upon a recent Survey USA poll conducted for KOB Channel 4-TV in Albuquerque. According to this result, Rep. Vasquez holds a 51-42% advantage. Previous polling had previously shown a much closer race.
The 2nd District was once a Republican-friendly seat, but in 2021 it was reconfigured as part of a redistricting effort that resulted in the seat being drawn into the outer Albuquerque suburbs in order to make it more Democratic. The plan worked: In 2022, Mr. Vasquez, then a Las Cruces City Councilman, edged out the one-term Congresswoman by less than one percentage point.
Regardless of this poll result, the NM-2 campaign will likely be close. Before President Biden exited his race, the Republicans appeared to be on an upswing in the state, but that has changed since Kamala Harris was installed as the Democratic presidential nominee.
NY-1
Fabrizio Lee & Associates recently tested the NY-1 electorate for Rep. Nick LaLota's (R-Amityville) campaign and finds the freshman Congressman leading former CNN commentator and author John Avlon (D) by a 50-42% margin in this eastern Long Island seat, which trends Republican.
In 2022, Rep. LaLota succeeded then-Rep. Lee Zeldin (R) who left the seat after four terms to run a close, but unsuccessful, bid for Governor. Mr. Avlon defeated former 1st District congressional nominee Nancy Goroff with 70% of the vote in the Democratic primary.
According to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, the 1st District carries a R+5 rating. The Dave's Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 53.5R – 45.6D partisan lean. The Down Ballot website staff ranks the seat as the 27th most-vulnerable in the House Republican Conference.
NY-17
Emerson College conducted an identical two-poll series for The Hill newspaper in adjoining New York Hudson Valley congressional districts. The first, in one of three New York Democratic-leaning seats that Republicans hold, tested freshman Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) against former Westchester County US Rep. Mondaire Jones (D). The Emerson poll finds a predictable toss-up result, with Rep. Lawler holding just a one-point lead, 45-44%, over Mr. Jones.
This is one of the critical seats in the country that will determine the next House majority. In a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+7, any sustained slight polling lead for a Republican candidate is a good sign for the GOP and suggests Rep. Lawler has a legitimate chance to again win this difficult district.
NY-18
Emerson College also tested the competitive 18th Hudson Valley district, which lies adjacent to Rep. Mike Lawler's competitive 17th CD. Here, we see the Democratic incumbent recording a five-point lead, which is just beyond the polling margin of error.
The Emerson poll posts Rep. Pat Ryan (D-Gardiner) to a 48-43% advantage over retired NYPD Deputy Inspector Alison Esposito (R). This is a competitive race, and Republicans are investing in the campaign, yet it is clear that Rep. Ryan commands the inside track to re-election.
NC-1
The new 2023 North Carolina congressional map, which is expected to deliver at least a three-seat gain for Republicans, sees the next-most competitive seat still trending Democratic. The 1st District, hugging the Virginia border in the northeastern portion of the state, carries a 50.9D – 47.7R partisan lean, according to statisticians for Dave's Redistricting App statisticians.
With this background, Noble Predictive Insights, polling for Inside Elections' political report, projects freshman Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) to be leading retired Army Colonel and consultant Laurie Buckhout (R) by a 42-34% margin, with Libertarian Tom Bailey recording 3% preference.
Because of the new congressional map, the current 7D-7R delegation is expected to become 10R-4D, with the 1st District only leaning toward the Democrats. This will be yet another congressional race to closely monitor on Nov. 5.
VA-7
For the third consecutive time, Ragnar Research Partners has produced a poll that finds a virtual dead heat between retired Army Colonel Eugene Vindman (D) and Iraq War veteran and attorney Derrick Anderson (R) in northern Virginia's open 7th Congressional District. The latest survey (for the Anderson campaign) sees Mr. Vindman holding only a 43-42%, margin, which is almost identical with what RRP found in its August and September polls.
Representative Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) is leaving this lean Democratic district to run for Governor in 2025. Despite his huge 5:1 spending advantage, Mr. Vindman has failed to nail down the seat. This suggests we will see a very close finish on Election Day.
WA-3
A surprising dead-heat poll emerged this week from southwestern Washington State. In their latest survey, Public Policy Polling (for the Northwest Progressive Institute) finds freshman Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Skamania County) and 2022 congressional finalist Joe Kent tied at 46% apiece.
Though the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates WA-3 with a substantial R+11 partisan lean, Mr. Kent failed to win the seat in 2020, when he was the favored candidate.
Perez won the district two years ago, posting a 50.1 – 49.3% result. It was widely-thought that she would prevail by a larger number in this year's election, since she was again running against a candidate the electorate previously rejected. A larger turnout, however, in this lean Republican district likely means more GOP voters participating, so the presidential year turnout model could well help Mr. Kent.
The PPP survey result finds this race to be very much in play. Mr. Kent returning to win the seat in 2024 would be a major boon to Republicans in their fight to hold their small majority. Conversely, a Perez re-election victory would be a key cog in any new Democratic majority.
LOCALITIES
Los Angeles County
The campaign of first-term Los Angeles County District Attorney George Gascon (D), who has become the face of controversial prosecution and bail policies, is in serious trouble. A new University of California at Berkeley's Institute for Government Studies poll (for the Los Angeles Times) finds Independent challenger Nathan Hochman crushing Gascon by 30 percentage points, 51-21%.
In the March primary, Gascon placed first in a field of 12 candidates, but could only manage to secure 25% of the vote. For an incumbent, a percentage this low is an ominous sign for the general election, and the latest survey certainly confirms such a pattern. Before moving to Los Angeles and entering the DA race in 2020, Mr. Gascon served for eight years as the San Francisco County District Attorney.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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