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EARLY VOTING
National Vote
More than 25 million people have already cast their ballots in the 2024 general election. At this stage, the most consistent voters are dominating the overall tally, and while both Democrats and Republicans are slightly ahead of their 2020 percentage turnout benchmark, we're seeing big increases in the rural vote.
According to the TargetEarly/TargetSmart data organization, early voters from the rural areas are up a full eight percentage points over their 2020 performance, and almost four points over their 2022 turnout. Conversely, urban voters are down ten points from 2020, and six from the 2022 benchmark.
Those listed as frequent and "super voters" – the latter meaning individuals who participate in every election – dominate the 2024 early-voting statistics.
SENATE
Michigan
A new AtlasIntel poll shows Republican former Michigan US Rep. Mike Rogers posting a small one-point edge over Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing), while another poll conducted simultaneously finds the Democrat holding a nine-point lead. AtlasIntel projects Mr. Rogers to be holding a slight 49-48% advantage; meanwhile, the Bullfinch Group finds a Slotkin margin of 51-42%.
Pennsylvania
Similar to what we see with the Slotkin-Rogers race in Michigan, for the first time, a new poll finds Republican David McCormick taking a small lead over Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D).
The Oct. 12-17 AtlasIntel survey projects Mr. McCormick to hold a 48-47% edge over Sen. Casey.
McCormick's gain may explain why, in a new ad, Sen. Casey cites agreement with Trump's trade policies and draws a distinction between his position and the Biden Administration's fracking policy.
However, an Oct. 11-17 Bullfinch Group survey paints a different picture of the race; it shows the Casey leading McCormick by seven percentage points, 50-43%.
Senator Casey has led throughout the entire election cycle, but his sudden shift in messaging – aligning him at least partially with former President Trump – is eyebrow-raising, and suggests that his campaign's internal data may be showing something closer to the AtlasIntel result.
Nebraska
The Senate Leadership Fund – the Republicans' main Senate outside Super PAC – is dropping another $3 million onto the Nebraska airwaves to help GOP Sen. Deb Fischer, who is in an unexpectedly difficult race against Independent candidate Dan Osborn.
With no Democratic opponent, Sen. Fischer looked to have an easy road to a third term until Mr. Osborn surfaced as a credible candidate. Once he did, the Democrats coalesced around him and began helping with his fundraising. In the 3rd Quarter, Osborn raised more than $3.2 million, and using that haul to run heavily-negative personal attack ads against Sen. Fischer.
The Nebraska race is the surprise of the 2024 election cycle, and has now become a critical contest with respect to the Senate majority. With Republicans on the threshold of claiming chamber control, they cannot afford to see any of their incumbents, including Sen. Fischer, upset.
Wisconsin
A fourth consecutive poll – this, an Oct. 21-22 survey from Emerson College – finds Sen. Tammy Baldwin's (D) lead over businessman Eric Hovde (R) falling to less than one percentage point, 48.4 – 47.7%. Since Oct. 18, three other pollsters have found a similar result.
Redfield & Wilton, Quinnipiac University, and the Trafalgar Group all posted the two candidates either at even strength, or with a one-point Baldwin lead. While Sen. Baldwin had maintained a consistent advantage over a period of months, it appears clear that this race has moved to toss-up status.
HOUSE
AL-2
Alabama's newly-created 2nd Congressional District is now beginning to perform as designed. The original intent was to draw the seat to elect an African-American Representative, and after a flirtation with Republican Caroleen Dobson, the electorate appears to be returning to normal trends. The legislature was under court order to draw a second majority minority seat, and this district is the result.
A recent Schoen Cooperman Research survey conducted for the Protect Progress liberal Super PAC finds former Obama Administration official Shomari Figurers (D) leading Ms. Dobson by a 49-38% count, which should put the race to bed for the Democrats.
CA-47
WPA Intelligence this week released the results of its latest survey of the Orange County-housed open 47th District featuring former Republican state Assemblyman Scott Baugh and Democratic state Senator Dave Min of Irvine. According to the poll results, Mr. Baugh claims a 43-40% edge over Mr. Min.
If the GOP were to convert this open seat, it would be a major positive in their quest to maintain their small House majority. The 47th District rates as D+6 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization.
In 2022, Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) defeated Mr. Baugh, 52-48%, but had to outspend him by a 10:1 ratio – dropping almost $30 million into her race. Representative Porter risked the seat this year to run unsuccessfully for the state's open US Senate seat, failing to advance into the general election from the jungle primary.
FL-13
Florida pollster St. Pete Polls conducted a survey of the Pinellas County-anchored 13th CD and sees Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg), running for a second term, languishing in a 46-46% tie with Democrat Whitney Fox.
The poll's accuracy is a bit suspect; though it shows a weighted sample comprised of 41% Republican respondents and 32% Democratic, it finds former President Trump trailing Vice President Kamala Harris, 50-47%. While the district is competitive, these numbers suggest an outlier. Representative Luna running ahead of Trump is a good sign for her, but this poll will likely prove inaccurate when the votes are actually counted.
Additionally, with almost 67,000 early votes recorded, the Republican number is exceeding past performance, which is another data point not in accordance with these poll results.
MI-8
The National Republican Congressional Committee just released an NMB Research poll showing GOP nominee Paul Junge, who has twice run for the seat against retiring incumbent Dan Kildee (D-Flint Township), continuing to cling to a small one-point lead, 41-40%, over state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City).
The 8th District, which houses the municipalities of Flint, Saginaw, Midland, and Bay City, is a swing district. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+1. The Down Ballot political blog ranks MI-8 as the 11th-most-vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference. Therefore, both the polling and vote history suggest this district is performing as predicted.
MI-10
Michigan pollster The Glengariff Group surveyed the state's politically-marginal 10th District for two media outlets, the Detroit News and WDIV Channel 4 in Detroit. The results find freshman Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) leading his 2022 opponent Carl Marlinga (D), a former judge and prosecutor, 47-44%.
The 10th District is a Detroit suburban seat that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+6, but the Dave's Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 49.5D – 47.9% partisan lean. The Down Ballot political blog ranks MI-10 as the 24th-most-vulnerable seat in the House Republican Conference. This is another of the key national congressional districts that will help determine which party controls the next House majority.
MT-1
Montana US Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) was first elected to the state's at-large House seat in 2014, and re-elected in 2016. Shortly after the 2016belection, then-President-Elect Trump nominated Mr. Zinke as US Interior Secretary, a position he held for two years. When Montana earned a second congressional district in the 2020 census, Mr. Zinke returned to elective politics and won the Treasure State's new western 1st District, but with a margin of 50-46% in a seat the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+10.
With 2022 Democratic nominee Monica Tranel back for a rematch, it was thought the '24 race could again be close. A new Guidant Polling & Strategies survey, however, suggests Rep. Zinke is in position to improve upon his previous performance.
The Oct. 13-16 poll, conducted for the Congressional Leadership Fund, projects the Congressman to hold a 52-44% advantage. Yet, an Oct. 14-17 Impact Research survey for the Tranel campaign sees the race coming back into the one-point range with the incumbent still maintaining the slightest of leads.
NM-2
The race between current New Mexico US Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-Las Cruces) and former Rep. Yvette Harrell (R) – a rematch of their 2022 contest, which was decided by less than a percentage point – continues to poll closely, but the Congressman maintains a clear lead.
The Research & Polling organization, conducting a survey for the Albuquerque Journal newspaper finds Rep. Vasquez leading 49-45%. This race will attract a great deal of attention on Election Day, as it is one of the key GOP challenger races that could wrest a seat away from the Democrats.
New York
Siena College tested two Long Island Districts and found scandal-tainted freshman Rep. Anthony D'Esposito (R-Island Park) trailing badly in the region's 4th Congressional District. According to the survey, the Congressman trails former Hempstead Town Supervisor and 2022 congressional nominee Laura Guillen (D) by a substantial 53-41%.
In eastern Long Island, freshman Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Suffolk County) has only a three-point lead over former CNN anchor John Avlon (D). The Siena poll posts the Congressman to a 47-44% edge.
NY-19
A Global Strategy Group large-sample survey for the campaign of challenger Josh Riley (D) gives him a 48-45% lead over incumbent Rep. Marc Molinaro (R) – this, in a district that the 2023 redistricting map actually made slightly more Republican. The same poll found Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by only one point, meaning Molinaro is lagging his party's presidential ticket.
New York will play a major role in determining the next House majority; Republicans will need to keep NY-19 in their column if they are to have a chance of retaining their small majority. Expect right-of-center outside groups to increase spending in this district. Mr. Riley is outspending the incumbent by almost a 2:1 ratio, while outside organizations are helping him in a 3:1 count from combined external spending of over $8 million.
VA-2
An Oct. 11-20 Christopher Newport University survey sees freshman Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach) leading Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal by just a single percentage point, 46-45%, in a district that former President Trump lost by two points in 2020, and currently trails by two.
This is another tight congressional race that will go a long way toward determining the House majority. If the Democrats unseat Rep. Kiggans, it is highly likely that they will wrest the majority away from Republicans. Therefore, VA-2 is a must-win for the GOP. We can expect, therefore, to see additional money coming into the district during the final week of campaigning.
GOVERNOR
Indiana
Democrats are not giving up on their bid to flip the open Indiana gubernatorial race. The Democratic Governor's Association just increased its investment in party nominee Jennifer McCormick's campaign by 40%, bringing its total contribution to her campaign to more than $1 million.
Publicly-released polls of this race have been sparse, with just five surveys publicly unveiled since Sept. 1. US Senator Mike Braun (R), eschewing a second federal term in order to compete in the Governor's race, leads in all five polls by an average of six percentage points.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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