Weekly Roundup – Saturday, May 24, 2025

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SENATE

Illinois 

US Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville), who was expected to enter the crowded Democratic US Senate field, announced that she will instead seek re-election next year.  In the field are two of her congressional colleagues, Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) and Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago), and Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, who has the backing of both the state’s Governor and junior Senator, J.B. Pritzker and Tammy Duckworth (D). At this point, Republicans do not have a major candidate.

Minnesota 

Former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen (D) has ended her US Senate campaign. This leaves Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) as the two prominent Democratic candidates vying for the party nomination to succeed retiring Sen. Tina Smith (D). As is the case in the Illinois open race, Republicans do not have a major candidate.

HOUSE

CO-8

State Rep. Shannon Bird (D-Westminster) announced during the week that she will join the growing Democratic congressional field vying to oppose freshman US Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Fort Lupton) in a district designed to be competitive every two years. Ms. Bird has established a moderate, more business friendly record in the state House. 

Already in the Democratic primary field are former US Rep. Yadira Caraveo, who lost to Rep. Evans last November, and state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City), who raised just under $1.2 million in the first quarter. Two others are expected to join the fray. Both state Treasurer Dave Young and former teachers’ union president Amia Baca-Oehlert are expected to add their names to the Democratic primary candidate list. Both the Democratic primary and general election will again likely be decided by a very small margin, probably between one and two percentage points.

IL-7 

Rumors are surfacing suggesting that 83 year-old veteran US Rep. Danny Davis (D-Chicago) will not seek re-election next year and retire. A key ally of the Congressman, state Rep. LaShawn Ford (D-Chicago), has filed a congressional committee with the Federal Election Commission. Rep. Davis, first elected to the House in 1996, has had two close Democratic primary victories in recent election cycles. He has been in elective office since 1979, including his time on the Chicago City Council, Cook County Board of Commissioners, and Congress. 

ME-2

Four-term Maine US Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston), amid speculation that he might run for Governor or possibly the US Senate against his former boss, Sen. Susan Collins (R), this week announced that he will seek a fifth term in the House next year. Earlier in the year, Rep. Golden was circumspect about his political plans not only acknowledging that he was considering a statewide bid, but also that he might retire outright from elective politics.

Next year, it appears he will face former two-term Gov. Paul LePage (R) who again returned from living in Florida to announce for public office in Maine. In 2022, Mr. LePage unsuccessfully challenged Gov. Janet Mills (D). Earlier this month, Mr. LePage announced that he would enter the 2nd Congressional District race next year. 

MN-2 

Twice defeated congressional candidate Tyler Kistner (R), a retired Marine Corps veteran, announced that he will return to compete for the open seat that Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) vacates to run for Senate. For the Democrats, state Senator Matt Klein (D-Mendota Heights/Rochester) and former Senator Matt Little are announced congressional candidates as is former Minneapolis City Council candidate Mike Norton.  Though this is likely to be a competitive election, the Democrats will be favored to hold the seat.

VA-11

Veteran Democratic US Representative Gerry Connolly (D-VA) passed away this week after an extensive battle with cancer. He is the third member to die since the beginning of the current Congress. 

At the end of April, Mr. Connolly announced that his cancer had returned and that he would not seek re-election and step down as Ranking Minority Member of the Oversight and Government Reform Committee. At the beginning of the current Congress, he easily defeated Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) to win the committee leadership position.

Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw (D) continues to gain momentum in his bid to replace retiring Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax), and it is presumed he will be the leading candidate to win the succeeding special election. Former state House Speaker Eileen Filler-Corn (D) and state Sen. Jennifer Boysko (D-Herndon), both viewed as prospective congressional candidates, each indicated she will not run and endorsed Mr. Walkinshaw. State Sen. Stella Pekarsky (D-Centrevile) is Walkinshaw’s main opponent for the Democratic nomination. 

The local 11th District Democratic Party committee will determine the nomination structure, whether that be an open primary, a firehouse primary, or a party convention, after Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) sets the date of the special general election. The eventual Democratic nominee will be a prohibitive favorite to win the seat.

GOVERNOR

Alabama 

Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) is expected to announce his campaign for Governor at some point in the coming week. Doing so will make the Alabama seat the sixth open Senate race for the 2026 election cycle, joining Illinois, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire as open states.

Sen. Tuberville’s move toward the Governor’s contest looks ever more secure since Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth (R) announced late this week that he will not run. Earlier this month, his statements led observers to believe that he would be the only Republican willing to challenge the Senator in the Republican gubernatorial primary. 

Georgia 

As expected, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms officially announced her candidacy for the open Democratic gubernatorial nomination during the week. She joins state Senator Jason Esteves (D-Atlanta) as the only two official Democratic gubernatorial candidates, to date. 

Attorney General Chris Carr is the lone Republican candidate, but Lt. Gov. Burt Jones is soon expected to enter the race.  Others in both parties could also join. Twice nominated gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams (D) recently indicated she is looking a potentially launching a third run for the office. The Georgia general election promises to be competitive.

Iowa 

Attorney General Brenna Bird (R) is sending broad hints that she will soon announce her campaign for Governor. If she enters the race, Ms. Bird will face US Rep. Randy Feenstra (D-Sioux City) in the June 2026 Republican primary.  For the Democrats, their lone statewide official, State Auditor Rob Sand, has the inside track for the party nomination.  Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) is not standing for a third full term.

New Jersey

Emerson College returned a poll of the New Jersey electorate (5/11-13; 386 NJ likely Democratic primary voters; 330 likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) and their results find US Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) pulling away from the Democratic field. 

The EC data finds Rep. Sherrill leading Jersey City Mayor Stephen Fulop, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, US Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff), Montclair Mayor and New Jersey Education Association president Sean Spiller, and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney by a 28-11-11-11-10-5% split. This survey finds Rep. Sherrill with her strongest lead of the 2025 election cycle. 

For the Republicans, 2021 Republican gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli, now armed with an endorsement from President Trump, leads radio talk show host Bill Spadea 44-18%. The New Jersey primary is scheduled for June 10.

Maine 

With US Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) seeking re-election, Democrats will still see a crowded open gubernatorial primary since Gov. Mills is ineligible to seek a third term.  Those party members officially announced for Governor include Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, businessman Angus King, III, son of Sen. Angus King (I-ME), former state Senate President Troy Jackson who hails from Maine’s far northern tier, and businessman David Jones. Expected to soon enter is former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, daughter of US Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/Portland). 

For the Republicans, former Assistant US Secretary of State Bobby Charles, ex-local official Robert Wessels, and businessman Owen McCarthy are the announced candidates.

Ohio

Attorney General Dave Yost (R), who was the first Republican candidate to announce for Governor, has dropped out of the race. Trailing businessman Vivek Ramaswamy in polling and then seeing the state Republican Executive Committee award the official party endorsement to his opponent made his victory path so small as to render his effort futile. Mr. Ramaswamy is now unopposed for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. 

For the Democrats, former state Health Director Amy Acton is the only announced prominent candidate. Former US Representative and 2022 US Senate nominee Tim Ryan says he is deciding whether to enter the race after saying he will not challenge appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R). Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is ineligible to stand for a third term. 

STATE AND LOCAL

Philadelphia 

City District Attorney Larry Krasner (D) who is one of the top George Soros’ organization backed candidates in the country was renominated in the Democratic primary this week with 62% of the vote. 

No Republican filed, but the GOP was running a write-in campaign for ex-Judge Patrick Dugan (D), who Krasner defeated in the primary. It will be a while before we know if the Republican plan to recruit at least 1,000 voters to write-in Dugan’s name to give the Democrat the Republican ballot line in the general election worked. Should Dugan not attract 1,000 Republican write-in votes, Krasner will run unopposed in the general election.

Pittsburgh

Mayor Ed Gainey was defeated for renomination during the week.  Allegheny County Controller Corey O’Connor unseated the Mayor with 53% of the Democratic primary vote. Mayor Gainey is now the third Mayor this year to lose a bid for re-election joining St. Louis Mayor Tishaura Jones (D) and Omaha Mayor Jean Stothert (R). 

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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