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PRIMARY RESULTS
Massachusetts
Attorney and Marine Corps veteran John Deaton easily defeated two other Republican candidates and will now face Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) in the general election. Obviously, Sen. Warren will be considered a prohibitive favorite in this most Democratic of states.
In the House, Rep. Richard Neal (D-Springfield) faces only Independent candidates in November. Representative Stephen Lynch (D-South Boston) will again see opposition from 2022 GOP nominee Rob Burke in this year's general election. Two years ago, Rep. Lynch was re-elected with 70% of the vote, and we can count on a similar result in November.
Representative Bill Keating's (D-Bourne) general election opponent is nurse Dan Sullivan (R), who was unopposed last night for his party's nomination. As is the case for Rep. Lynch, Mr. Keating is considered a prohibitive favorite for re-election. The other six members of the Massachusetts US House delegation, all Democrats, are all unopposed in the general election.
PRESIDENT
Ballot
More states are finalizing their 2024 general election ballot, and we see new decisions announced in key battlegrounds. The North Carolina Board of Elections ruled that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr, (I) will remain on the ballot despite his withdrawal action. Mr. Kennedy says he will sue to overturn the Board's ruling.
In Georgia, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) declared that Mr. Kennedy can withdraw from the ballot, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein is disqualified. Making the Georgia ballot are Independent Cornel West and Communist Party nominee Claudia de la Cruz.
The new Virginia ruling includes Mr. Kennedy on the ballot, but Dr. West is disqualified.
NE-2
As part of Survey USA's Nebraska statewide poll, the research organization tested the state's 2nd District, the seat that can vote against the Republican statewide result and deliver an important electoral vote to the Democrats.
According to the S-USA results Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by a 47-42% margin. This district is important because, if it votes Mr. Trump's way, the CD could cause a tie in the Electoral College, thus sending the race to the House of Representatives to decide the final outcome.
SENATE
Minnesota
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) has always been regarded as a lock for re-election, and while the newly-released Redfield & Wilton survey does not suggest any result other than the Senator's victory, the poll results reveal a closer than expected developing campaign. The R&W ballot test numbers find Sen. Klobuchar leading former NBA basketball player Royce White (R) by only a 51-44% margin.
This poll is likely an anomaly large due to the small sample size. In contrast, Survey USA was in the field during a similar period (8/27-29; 635 MN likely voters; online) and found a much different ballot test result with the Senator leading Mr. White, 50-36%.
Nebraska
The Survey USA statewide poll again delivers unwelcome news for Sen. Deb Fischer (R), who is seeking her third term in office. Here, the Democrats are not fielding a candidate, instead throwing their backing behind an Independent candidate to form a coalition, similar to the way the Utah Democrats backed Independent Evan McMullin in 2022.
Though polling was suggesting a close race in Utah, the end result found Sen. Mike Lee (R) generally uniting right-of-center voters and winning re-election with a 53-43% vote spread. In this Nebraska poll, Sen. Fischer posts only a one point edge, 39-38%, over local union President Dan Osborn who is running on the Independent ballot line.
While Mr. Osborn's standing at 38% is what one would expect for a left-of-center candidate in Nebraska, Sen. Fischer's 39% poll total suggests a severe under-performance.
Ohio
A new On Point / Red Eagle / SoCal Strategies survey has been released for the Ohio races, and the results are consistent with what has been presented for weeks. In the presidential campaign, former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by nine percentage points, 52-43%. Yet, the Senate contest again produces a much different conclusion.
Senator Sherrod Brown (D) leads businessman Bernie Moreno (R) by five points, 50-45%. Since the end of May, Sen. Brown has maintained the advantage in six consecutive polls that six different polling firms conducted. His leads have been consistent: eight, five, six, four, five, and five points even though Mr. Trump has led in each survey.
The last time Sen. Brown was on the ballot, in 2018, a total of eight polls were conducted for the race featuring the incumbent and then-US Rep. Jim Renacci (R). Senator Brown led in each poll and his average advantage was just over 13 percentage points. Yet, his winning margin was only six points. Therefore, if polling history repeats itself in 2024, this race may prove closer than the current data suggest.
Pennsylvania
Senator Bob Casey, Jr. (D-PA) has clearly been leading his race for re-election, but the most recent polls find the contest becoming much closer, just as former President Trump has been taking a small lead in most of these same Pennsylvania polls.
After posting consistent double-digit leads through July and early August, the month's mid to latter periods has yielded different results. Since mid-August, ten polls have been released of this Senate race, and Sen. Casey's mean average margin has dropped to 4.5 points. In July, his advantage through 11 released polls was almost nine percentage points. While the Trump numbers have improved in recent PA polling, so has Republican Senate challenger David McCormick's standing.
West Virginia
In a race that has attracted little in the way of political attention because most observers believe the result is a foregone conclusion, Research America, polling for the West Virginia Metro News website, casts Gov. Jim Justice (R) in a very favorable light.
In the Senate race, after reaching the maximum number of years allowed in the Governor's office, Mr. Justice posts a major advantage over Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott (D). Looking at the ballot test data, Gov. Justice is staked to a huge 62-28% margin over Mayor Elliott.
Should Gov. Justice continue this trend and claim the seat on election night, a West Virginia conversion victory would give the Republicans their 50th Senate seat. Defeating just one more Democratic incumbent would secure an outright GOP majority in the next Congress.
HOUSE
AK
The Alaska Aug. 20 primary numbers are now final, and Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) finished with 50.9% of the vote in the state's unique top four jungle primary system. Obtaining a majority primary vote makes her the favorite for the general election.
In second place was Republican Nick Begich, III with 26.6% followed by GOP Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom who posted 19.9% support. The fourth-place finisher, Republican Matthew Salisbury, received only 652 votes, for less than 1%. Both Ms. Dahlstrom and Mr. Salisbury are forfeiting their general election positions. Therefore, it appears that Mr. Begich will get his long-awaited chance to face Rep. Peltola with only minor party contenders accompanying him on the ballot.
While Ms. Peltola received majority support, it was with a turnout of only 108,407 voters. In the general election, more than 350,000 ballots are projected to be cast meaning the November at-large election yields a whole new political ballgame. A major party head-to-head poll that the Cygnal polling organization conducted for the National Republican Congressional Committee found Rep. Peltola leading Mr. Begich by just a single percentage point, 46-45%.
FL-13
Last week, St. Pete Polls released an online survey that found Democrat Whitney Fox leading freshman Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) by a 48-44% clip. This week, WPA Intelligence released their data, which shows the exact opposite ballot test result. According to WPAi, Rep. Luna has a mirror image 48-43% advantage.
The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-13 as R+12, and The Down Ballot statistical organization (formerly Daily Kos Elections) ranks the Tampa Bay area seat as the 38th most vulnerable seat in the House Republican Conference. Therefore, it is likely that the WPAi numbers are the better gauge since their data is more consistent with the district's voter history. Still, this will be a competitive election down the home stretch.
MT-1
Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) previously served in the House and was appointed Interior Secretary in the Trump Administration. He returned to Congress in 2022 with an unimpressive 50-46% victory over former US Olympic crew team member Monica Tranel (D) that was below a typical Republican performance. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 1st as R+10.
The new Fabrizio Ward / David Binder Research poll for AARP sees Rep. Zinke holding the lead over Ms. Tranel, who returns for a rematch; but again the contest appears closer than what is typically seen for a partisan race in this district. The ballot test cut 49-43% in Rep. Zinke's favor, but numbers such as these will likely increase outside resources coming into the district to aid Ms. Tranel.
OR-5
Another in the series of released US House race polls finds a freshman GOP incumbent slightly trailing her Democratic challenger. Oregon US Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley) defeated Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner in 2022 after the latter woman had denied then-Rep. Kurt Schrader renomination in the May Democratic primary.
This year, Rep. Chavez-DeRemer's opponent is state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Clackamas) who easily defeated McLeod-Skinner in the Democratic primary. A Noble Predictive Insights survey finds the Congresswoman trailing Ms. Bynum by a single percentage point, 43-42%.
While Ms. Chavez-DeRemer has a 39:30% favorability index, Vice President Harris holds an eight point lead over Donald Trump in the 5th District. Therefore, the political dynamics here make the district a tough hold for the Congresswoman.
GOVERNOR
West Virginia
The same Research America survey that tested the West Virginia Senate race also asked an open gubernatorial question. In this race, the polling analysis suggests that Attorney General Pat Morrisey (R) holds a double-digit lead of 49-35% against Huntington Mayor Steve Williams (D). While closer than the Senate race, this poll gives the full indication that Mr. Morrisey will easily hold the Governor's position for the GOP.
STATES
Early Voting
The time for states to begin sending absentee ballots to voters is fast approaching. The first to begin mailing ballots is North Carolina, and their deadline for posting is today, Sept. 7. Three states will open early voting polling places on Sept. 20: Minnesota, South Dakota and Virginia. A fourth, Illinois, will follow suit six days later.
All but three states, Alabama, Mississippi and New Hampshire, have some form of early voting. Clearly early voting changes campaign strategies, and certainly the political calendar. Instead of election day, we now have election month. Charting early voting has become a valuable way of monitoring voter intensity, which often is a victory momentum indicator.
Editor's note: For resources on political action, including a downloadable Voter's Guide for Authentic Catholics provided by the Souls and Liberty Action Network, click here.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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