SENATE
Iowa
State Rep. J.D. Scholten (D-Sioux City) withdrew this week from the Senate race amongst a growing Democratic primary. While leaving the race, Mr. Scholten endorsed state Rep. Josh Turek’s (D-Council Bluffs) US Senate effort. Also in the Democratic primary are state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines), Des Moines School Board chair Jackie Norris, and local Chamber of Commerce executive Nathan Sage. While not yet officially announced, two-term Sen. Joni Ernst (R) is expected to seek re-election.
Ohio
Former US Senator Sherrod Brown (D), who lost his seat in November to current Sen. Bernie Moreno (R), released an official announcement video this week saying he will challenge appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R). Also announcing for the Democratic nomination is venture capitalist Fred Ode who said he would invest millions into his race if it became clear he has a chance to win. Otherwise, his campaign will be short lived.
Texas
For the first time this year, US Senator John Cornyn has posted a polling lead over Attorney General Ken Paxton in their 2026 Texas Republican primary battle. Emerson College tested the Lone Star State electorate (8/11-12; 1,000 TX registered voters; 491 TX self-identified Republican voters; multiple sampling techniques) and the results project Sen. Cornyn only edging AG Paxton by a scant 30-29%, but the survey clearly shows positive movement for the veteran incumbent.
Both Sen. Cornyn and AG Paxton would lead former US Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Colin Allred (D) in general election pairings. Sen. Cornyn would top Mr. Allred 45-38%, while Mr. Paxton posts a smaller 48-44% advantage.
The Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University also released US Senate poll results. Their survey (8/6-12; 1,500 TX Republican primary voters; online) found Mr. Paxton leading 44-39%, yet even this spread is a major improvement for Sen. Cornyn when compared to previous 2025 polling.
HOUSE
AL-1
Former US Rep. Jerry Carl (R) formally announced that he will compete for the now open 1st District since incumbent Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) is running for the Senate. In 2024, Reps. Moore and Carl were paired by a court-ordered redistricting plan that forced the state to add another minority district.
Now, in an open seat, former Rep. Carl is working to regain the position from which the court forced him. At this point, Mr. Carl looks to be a clear favorite for the 2026 GOP nomination. Winning the party nod is tantamount to clinching the general election in a safely Republican seat with a partisan lean calculated at 76.5R – 22.0D (Dave’s Redistricting App).
California
The California proposed retribution redistricting map in response to the Texas redraw is now public, and the process to adopt such a plan occurred this week.
In order for the California Governor and legislators to replace their current congressional map before the 2030 census is completed, the leadership must find a way to usurp the California Citizens Redistricting Commission that the voters instituted through a 2010 ballot measure. The only way to cancel the Commission map, Governor Gavin Newsom and the majority Democrats believe, is to have another vote of the people to directly adopt a specific new map.
To approve a ballot referendum, each legislative chamber must do so with a 2/3 super majority, and such vote was cast. Count on a legal challenge being filed to contest the process. If the redistricting plan goes to the ballot, the voters would then have to adopt the map in a November special election.
IA-2
State Rep. Lindsay James (D-Dubuque), who was first elected to the legislature in 2018 and is an ordained minister, announced that she will enter the Democratic congressional primary to challenge US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) next year. Rep. Hinson is in strong political and financial shape (almost $2 million cash-on-hand) and will be difficult to unseat as she moves forward with her quest for a fourth term.
NV-3
Cardiologist James Lally announced a Democratic primary challenge from the left to four-term US Rep. Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas). The politically marginal 3rd District will likely be one of the few toss-up general election battles we will see in 2026, redistricting notwithstanding. While it is unlikely that Rep. Lee would lose renomination, a battle from a self-funding opponent could force her to spend significant dollars in a June election. Already seven Republicans have announced their candidacies in what promises to be a competitive GOP primary campaign.
TX-21
Texas US Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin) will not seek re-election in 2026 as he announced his statewide candidacy for Texas Attorney General. The move will open a safely Republican seat even under the new map though in a different configuration. Thus, we will likely see a highly competitive Republican primary with the winner clinching the seat in November.
Texas
With the Democratic state House members returning to Austin, the legislature passed the new congressional redistricting map and sent it to Gov. Greg Abbott (R) for his signature. Republicans believe they can gain five seats under this map, but it remains to be seen what happens with legal challenges and actual campaigning once the new races begin in earnest.
VA-8
Alexandria City Councilman Mo Seifeldein announced that he will launch a Democratic primary challenge to six-term Congressman Don Beyer (D-Alexandria) in another situation nationally where a younger Democrat is challenging an older incumbent – Rep. Beyer will be 76 years of age at the next election – and using the age argument as an issue in the campaign. Rep. Beyer will be favored for renomination.
Governor
Alaska
Former state Sen. Tom Begich (D), son of the late US Rep. Nick Begich (D), brother to former US Senator Mark Begich (D), and uncle to at-large US Rep Nick Begich, III (R-Chugiak), announced his campaign for Governor during the week.
The move is a curious one since former US Rep. Mary Peltola (D), who is still viewed very favorably statewide, is also expected to become a gubernatorial candidate. Should she decide to run, Mr. Begich says he would end his own campaign. Since two-term Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek a third term, the Alaska Governor’s race will feature a competitive open campaign.
Arizona
Eight-term Arizona US Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills/ Scottsdale) is confirming reports that he is considering entering the 2026 Governor’s race.
In the statewide Republican primary contest are US Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert), who is leading in early polling, and Karrin Taylor Robson who ran for Governor in 2022 but failed to overtake Kari Lake for the GOP nomination. Earlier in the year, President Trump issued a dual endorsement for Rep. Biggs and Ms. Robson, but her support was recently withdrawn because the President said she was not using his backing to its fullest benefit.
With Robson likely stagnating, Rep. Schweikert may see the opportunity of overtaking Mr. Biggs in a GOP primary race that won’t be decided until August 4 of next year. The eventual Republican nominee will be highly competitive against Gov. Katie Hobbs (D), who defeated Ms. Lake by a scant 50.3 – 49.6% count in 2022.
Connecticut
Two state legislators announced their 2026 gubernatorial campaigns during the week, one from each party, even as Gov. Ned Lamont (D) decides whether to run for a third term. State Sen. Ryan Fazio (R-Greenwich) and state Rep. Josh Elliott (D-Hamden) are the new gubernatorial entries. If Gov. Lamont announces for a third term, which is expected, he will be favored both for his party’s nomination and re-election.
New Jersey
The Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University released the results of their most recent statewide survey (7/31-8/11; 1,650 NJ likely 2025 general election voters; online) and find US Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) continuing to lead former state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli (R) in the open Governor’s race. The initial ballot test found Ms. Sherrill topping Mr. Ciattarelli 44-35%. When leaners are added, the ballot test moves to 47-37%.
It is clear that Ms. Sherrill is the race leader, but the margin may be tighter than the data indicates since Mr. Ciattarelli has consistently outperformed the polling in his previous elections. Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.
New York
An early August Siena College poll (8/4-7; 813 NY registered voters; live interview and online) provides good news to often embattled Gov. Kathy Hochul. In the Democratic primary, Gov. Hochul swamps Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, 50-15%. In a general election pairing versus US Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville), the Governor would lead 45-31%.
In other favorable Hochul news, US Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx), who for months was openly considering challenging the Governor for renomination, called for Democratic unity in announcing he is endorsing the Governor for re-election and cautions others “not to underestimate Kathy Hochul.”
Pennsylvania
As expected, Republican State Treasurer Stacey Garrity announced she will seek the GOP nomination to challenge Gov. Josh Shapiro (D). Ms. Garrity was first elected to her statewide post in 2020 and does not have to risk the position for a 2026 run. She next stands for re-election in 2028.
Ms. Garrity made her intentions as a probable gubernatorial candidate clear when US Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Dallas/Lebanon) announced in July that he would seek re-election instead of entering the 2026 Governor’s race. Ms. Garrity is expected to draw little in the way of primary opposition but will be an underdog to Gov. Shapiro in the general election.
South Carolina
US Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) released the results of her most recent internal campaign poll (8/8-11; 600 SC likely Republican primary voters; live interview and text), which posts her to a 25-17-10-6-3% lead over Attorney General Alan Wilson, US Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), Lt. Governor Pamela Evette, and state Sen. Josh Kimbrell (R-Spartanburg), respectively.
Even running against the state’s sitting Lt. Governor, four-term Attorney General, and a five-term Congressman, Rep. Mace was the best known among the respondents. A total of 83% recognized her name, and her favorability index stood at 50:21 positive to negative. Despite winning four statewide elections, AG Wilson’s name ID was only 60% according to this poll, but his favorability index is a strong 37:8.
Wisconsin
US Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) released the results of a Fabrizio Lee & Associates poll (7/28-31; 600 WI likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text) that post him to a 39-13-10% lead over Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann and manufacturing company CEO Bill Berrien. The Tiffany lead expands to 60-8% over Schoemann when informed Rep. Tiffany would have President Trump’s endorsement. Since Gov. Tony Evers (D) recently announced that he would not seek a third term, the 2026 Wisconsin Governor’s race will be open.
For the Democrats, Secretary of State and former State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski became the first party member to formally announce his or her gubernatorial candidacy.
