SENATE
Iowa
As predicted, Iowa Republican US Sen. Joni Ernst who won her previous elections in 2014 and 2020, announced that she will not seek re-election next year. Immediately, and also as predicted, US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) entered the race for the now open Senate seat. Rep. Hinson will be a viable GOP candidate, so the party will still be in strong position to hold the Iowa seat.
Announced Democratic candidates are state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines), state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs), Des Moines School Board chair Jackie Norris, and local Chamber of Commerce executive Nathan Sage. It is unlikely we will see much change in the Democratic field despite the seat now being open.
Maine
While Gov. Janet Mills (D) said she will decide in several weeks about whether to challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R), other Democrats are making moves. Now in the race are two Democratic businessmen, oyster farmer Graham Platner and Maine Beer Company co-founder Dan Kleban. Sen. Collins, originally elected in 1996, is running for a sixth term.
Mississippi
Democratic District Attorney Scott Colom, who represents a four-county region, announced that he will seek his party’s nomination to challenge US Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R). Little has been mentioned about this race so far; therefore, it is quite possible that a Hyde-Smith/Colom general election could be what transpires after the early Mississippi primary on March 10.
New Hampshire
While national Republicans attempted unsuccessfully to recruit former Governor Chris Sununu (R) into the open New Hampshire Senate race, John E. Sununu, brother of the retired chief executive and himself a former Senator and US House member, has been traveling the state and may enter the race.
Ex-Massachusetts Senator and 2014 New Hampshire Republican Senate nominee Scott Brown is an announced candidate, but he is trailing US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) in polling and would likely not make this open race a top tier national campaign. A recent St. Anselm College poll (8/26-27; 1,800 NH registered voters; online) found Rep. Pappas outpacing former Sen. Brown, 48-37%.
Texas
Sen. John Cornyn continues to show movement in his Republican primary race against Attorney General Ken Paxton. A new co/efficient survey (8/25-27; 818 TX likely Republican primary voters) finds the Senator pulling to within a 39-36% ballot test result with AG Paxton still leading. Before August, the Paxton average polling lead was 16 percentage points, but the four most recent surveys find Paxton leading in three of four studies but with an average edge of just over four points.
HOUSE
AL-1
Former US Rep. Jerry Carl (R) released a survey posting him in strong position for his comeback attempt. An internal Carl campaign Cygnal poll (8/21-22; 400 AL-1 likely Republican primary voters) sees Mr. Carl leading state Rep. Rhett Marques (R-Enterprise) and Army veteran Joshua McKee, 29-5-2%, respectively. Mr. Carl was defeated in the 2024 Republican primary when a court-ordered redistricting forced he and Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) into the same district.
CA-7
Sacramento City Councilwoman Mai Vang (D) has filed a congressional committee with the Federal Election Commission in anticipation of a Democratic primary challenge to Rep. Doris Matsui (D-Sacramento). The Congresswoman succeeded her husband in the House, Rep. Bob Matsui, when he passed away and has served since early 2005. Rep. Matsui says she will seek re-election.
CA-22
A released Public Policy Polling survey (8/6-8; 547 CA-22 likely general election voters; text and live interview) finds US Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) and state Assemblywoman Jasmeet Bains (D-Bakersfield) tied at 22% preference apiece. The poll was taken prior to the new California map being released which would make a new 22nd District about a point more Democratic.
Irrespective of the partisan number, Rep. Valadao has been able to win in heavily Democratic territory over six elections, but did lose in 2018 to Democrat T.J. Cox. Rep. Valadao returned to re-capture the seat in 2020.
CA-38
Los Angeles County Supervisor Hilda Solis (D) says she will run in the new 38th District if the special redistricting election replaces the current congressional map. The move would send Solis back to the US House where she served from 2001-2009 before President Obama chose her as his US Labor Secretary. After serving in that position during the first Obama Administration, she returned to southern California to seek her seat on the Los Angeles County Board.
The move back to Congress would be an interesting one, since the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors, a panel of just five members, is viewed as one of the most powerful bodies in California. In fact, Supervisor Janice Hahn (D) gave up a seat in Congress to run for the Board in 2016.
IA-2
With incumbent Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) now in the Senate race, we already see action coming from the Republican sector for her open House seat. Former US Rep. Rod Blum, who held the seat for two terms until losing to Democrat Abby Finkenauer in 2018, is expressing interest in running, as is ex-state Sen. Joe Mitchell and state Rep. Shannon Lundgren (R-Peosta). Announced Democrats include state Rep. Lindsay James (D-Dubuque), retired Army Lt. Col. and ex-nursing college dean Kathy Dolter, 2020 local office nominee Don Primus, and pastor and non-profit organization founder Clint Twedt-Ball.
Missouri
The Missouri legislature has reconvened for purposes of redrawing the state’s congressional map. A new draw will likely target Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s (D-Kansas City) 5th District in an attempt to increase the Republican seat count in the eight member delegation to 7R-1D.
NM-3
Four-term state Rep. Martin Zamora (R-Clovis) announced that he will challenge three-term US Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez (D-Santa Fe) giving Republicans a credible candidate in a district that is on the outer edge of competitiveness. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 51.2D – 41.6R partisan lean. Kamala Harris carried the district over President Trump with a 52-46% margin.
NY-12
Empire State Congressman Jerrold Nadler (D-New York City) announced during the week that he will not seek an 18th term next year. The decision ends a long New York political career which featured Mr. Nadler holding an elected office consecutively since the beginning of 1977 when adding his combined time in Congress and the New York State Assembly.
In an interview with the New York Times, Rep. Nadler indicated that the generation gap was an issue in making his retirement decision. He said, “[w]atching the Biden thing really said something about the necessity for generational change in the party, and I think I want to respect that…” Mr. Nadler will be 79 years of age when the 2026 election is held.
Rep. Nadler’s 12th Congressional District lies fully within the Borough of Manhattan and contains most of Central Park. It stretches from the island’s western border at the Hudson River across Manhattan to the East River. The Nadler departure is likely to leave a very crowded Democratic primary in his wake. With a partisan lean of 83.9D – 13.7R (Dave’s Redistricting App projection), the Nadler successor will be the eventual Democratic nominee. One name that has been mentioned is former First Daughter Chelsea Clinton, but a statement was released saying that Ms. Clinton will not enter the race.
NC-1
State Sen. Bobby Hanig (R-Powells Point) announced that he will compete for the Republican nomination to challenge two-term US Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill). Already in the Republican primary race is Rocky Mount Mayor and former congressional candidate Sandy Roberson. The general election will be competitive. In 2024, Rep. Davis was re-elected with only a 49-48 percentage margin, while President Trump carried the seat, 51-48%.
PA-8
Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti (D) announced that she will challenge freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township/Scranton). In 2024, Mr. Bresnahan unseated six-term US Rep. Matt Cartwright who is not returning for a re-match. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 50.0D – 47.9R partisan lean. Both Rep. Bresnahan and President Trump exceeded the partisan lean in November. The President defeated Kamala Harris here, 54-45%.
TN-6
Brad Gaines, the father of women’s sports advocate and former college swimmer Riley Gaines, filed papers to run in his state’s open 6th Congressional District. Obviously, the issue of men competing in women’s sports will be at the forefront of the Republican primary campaign. We can expect a crowded Republican primary, with the winner clinching the open seat in November. Incumbent GOP Congressman John Rose is running for Governor.
Utah
Considering the new judicial ruling that the state must redraw its congressional map means a new Democratic Salt Lake City downtown district could be put in place. Former Rep. Ben McAdams (D) confirms that he would consider making a political comeback. Mr. McAdams was first elected to the 4th District in 2018, but was defeated for re-election in 2020.
VA-1
Henrico County Commonwealth Attorney Shannon Taylor, who lost a close Attorney General’s Democratic primary in June, announced that she is joining the crowded field hoping to challenge veteran US Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Montross). The Democratic primary field has now swelled to eleven candidates.
Rep. Wittman was first elected in a 2007 special election. He won re-election in 2024 with a 56-44% margin. President Trump carried the district 51.8 – 46.9%, but it is the only Virginia congressional district where his percentage dropped from 2020. Therefore, Democrats now believe they have a better chance of converting the seat, hence the large candidate field.
GOVERNOR
Arizona
Noble Predictive Insights conducted one of their regular Arizona polls (8/11-18; 948 AZ registered voters; 385 AZ likely Republican primary voters; online) and finds a surprise in the Republican primary. Previous polling suggested that Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) is the leading candidate, but this ballot test result yields a 37-27% advantage for 2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson. In general election polling, Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) again posts a slight lead against both Robson and Biggs, 40-38 and 39-37%, respectively. Clearly, Arizona will see yet another competitive statewide race in 2026.
Florida
Former state House Speaker Paul Renner announced that he will join the open gubernatorial field, which has so far been US Rep. Byron Donalds’ (R-Naples) clear domain. Recently appointed Lt. Gov. Jay Collins is also reported to be considering the race. The eventual Republican nominee will be favored to succeed term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis (R).
Oklahoma
A new regular Sooner Poll from Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass & Associates again finds Attorney General Gentner Drummond continuing to post a commanding lead in the open Oklahoma Republican gubernatorial primary. According to this most recent poll (8/4-10; 400 OK likely Republican primary voters; live interview), AG Drummond posts a 43-8-8% lead over Superintendent of Public Instruction Ryan Walters and former state House Speaker Charles McCall. The eventual Republican nominee will become a prohibitive favorite in the 2026 general election. Incumbent Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
