SENATE
Alabama
The regular Alabama Poll was just published (12/15-18; 600 AL likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text) and the results continue to project Attorney General Steve Marshall leading the GOP race for the open US Senate seat. Mr. Marshall posts a 30-12-8% lead over US Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) and ex-Navy SEAL Jared Hudson as the candidates position themselves for the May 19 primary. If no one reaches the majority mark, a runoff election between the top two finishers will be held on June 16. Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) is leaving his current position to run for Governor.
Colorado
State Senator Mark Baisley (R-Woodland Park) ended his pursuit of the GOP gubernatorial nomination and instead announced his intention to challenge Sen. John Hickenlooper (D). While Sen. Baisley has a much better chance of capturing the Republican Senate nomination than he did as a gubernatorial candidate, he will still be a major underdog against Sen. Hickenlooper in the November general election.
New Hampshire
Praecones Analytica, surveying for the New Hampshire Journal news site (conducted 12/26-28; 603 NH registered voters) finds US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) leading former US Senator John E. Sununu (R) by a 42-36% margin. If former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown were the New Hampshire GOP Senate nominee, Rep. Pappas’ margin increases to 46-28 percent.
A second poll, from Guidant Polling & Strategy (12/9-11; 600 NH likely general election voters; 353 likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text), finds a closer race. According to this ballot test, Rep. Pappas would lead former Senator Sununu 47-44%. In the Republican primary, Mr. Sununu tops ex-Senator Brown, 49-30 percent.
The New Hampshire primary will not be decided until September 8. The general election winner will succeed the retiring Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D).
Texas
A mid-December Pulse Decision Science survey (12/14-17; 809 TX likely Republican primary voters; live interview) again sees the March 3 Senate Republican primary battle headed for a runoff election. The ballot test finds Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton advancing to the runoff with 38% preference apiece. US Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) trails with 16% support. This poll is consistent with the plethora of polling released for this nomination campaign.
Virginia
Republican state Senator Bryce Reeves (R-Spotsylvania) who before Christmas announced that he would challenge Sen. Mark Warner (D), has already ended his campaign. The Senator said a family health problem forces him out of the race. At this point, Sen. Warner faces only minor opposition and will likely become a prohibitive favorite for re-election to a fourth term. Sen. Warner has said this will be his last campaign as he plans to retire after serving until the end of 2032.
HOUSE
AZ-5
Former NFL place kicker and ex-CBS sports analyst Jay Feeley (R) announced that he is leaving his 5th District campaign and will enter the open 1st District race. Polling data showing former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb leading the GOP primary in landslide proportions likely forced Mr. Feeley to choose another district. Mr. Lamb now becomes a prohibitive favorite to capture the Republican nomination and win the general election in a safely Republican Maricopa County seat. Incumbent Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) is leaving the House to run for Governor.
CA-1
California Congressman Doug LaMalfa (R-Oroville) suddenly passed away during the week marking the fourth time we have seen a member of the House die during the current congressional biennial. The other 119th Congress deceased members are Reps. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), Sylvester Turner (D-TX) and Gerry Connolly (D-VA). Mr. LaMalfa’s death will lead to a special election in California’s post-redistricting 1st CD. Running under the new boundaries will give the Democrats a distinct advantage toward converting the seat.
It is arguable that Rep. LaMalfa received the worst draw of any California Republican incumbent when comparing the new 1st District to the 1st CD from which he was elected. The northern California draw was largely conceived to give state Senate President Mike McGuire (D-Sonoma County) the opportunity of running for the US House.
Rep. LaMalfa, after serving three terms in the state Assembly and being elected to the state Senate, claimed the 1st District congressional seat in 2012. He was re-elected six times, including November of 2024. In his seven congressional elections, Mr. LaMalfa averaged 59.5% of the vote.
CO-8
Democratic state Treasurer Dave Young, one of nine Democratic candidates vying for the opportunity of challenging vulnerable freshman US Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Ft. Lupton) in the politically marginal 8th CD, has ended his congressional campaign. Mr. Young says a serious family health situation led to his withdrawal decision. The leading contenders for the party nomination are state Reps. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) and Shannon Bird (D-Westminster).
GA-14
US Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) officially resigned from the House, and Gov. Brian Kemp (R) announced that the special jungle primary replacement election will be held on March 10. All candidates will be placed on the same ballot irrespective of political party affiliation. If no one obtains majority support, the top two finishers will advance to an April 7 runoff election. GA-14 is the safest Republican seat in Georgia. A large number of Republicans are lining up to run for the seat. It is possible that two of the party’s members will advance to the runoff election.
MD-5
First winning a special congressional election in early 1981, 23-term US Representative and former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) announced in an interview with a Washington Post reporter that he will not seek re-election this year.
At the end of the current Congress, Mr. Hoyer, 86 years of age, will complete just under 57 years in elective office counting his time in the US House and the Maryland state Senate. After losing a race for Lt. Governor in 1978 for which he left the state Senate, Mr. Hoyer served a three-year stint as an appointed member of the Maryland Board of Higher Education.
During his 46 years in the House, Rep. Hoyer served as an elected member of the Democratic leadership for 26 years, holding the positions of Democratic Caucus Vice Chairman, Caucus Chairman, Minority Whip and Majority Leader. He also served three years as the Maryland State Senate President. The seat will remain safely Democratic in the 2026 election.
MI-4
Jessica Swartz, the 2024 Democratic congressional nominee who was attempting to return for a re-match with US Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland), has instead decided to seek an open seat in the state House of Representatives. Her move leaves the Democratic congressional primary to state Sen. Sean McCann (R-Kalamazoo). Though the seat leans Republican (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 51.8R – 45.1D), this race will become competitive.
MT-1
Montana smokejumper elite firefighter Sam Forstag (D) announced that he will enter the Democratic congressional primary with the goal of challenging US Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish). Since returning to the House after serving as US Interior Secretary in President Trump’s first term, Mr. Zinke has averaged 50.9% of the vote suggesting that the 1st District will again be competitive later this year. Prior to his service in the Trump Administration, Mr. Zinke was twice elected to the House when Montana had only an at-large congressional district.
NC-11
A new poll suggests that US Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-Flat Rock/Asheville) will be facing a highly competitive general election this year. The Democratic firm Impact Research surveyed the district (conducted for the Jamie Ager campaign; 12/15-17; 500 NC-11 likely general election voters) and finds Rep. Edwards slightly behind potential challenger Jamie Ager, an agribusinessman. The ballot test reveals a 45-44% split in Mr. Ager’s favor.
Because Republicans tend to under-poll in North Carolina, Rep. Edwards is probably in a bit better shape than these numbers suggest. Still, this race could be one to watch as the campaign cycle moves toward political prime time.
PA-7
The 7th District congressional race promises to be the most competitive in the Keystone State. Four Democrats competing for the party nomination were tested. The winner then faces freshman GOP Representative Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lower Macungie/Allentown).
Change Research released a Democratic primary poll (12/16-19; 892 PA-7 likely Democratic primary voters; online) and projects Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure to be leading Firefighters Association president Bob Brooks, former congressional aide Carol Orbando-Derstine, and ex-federal prosecutor Ryan Croswell, 17-11-10-5%. This suggests the Democratic primary could turn into a tight dogfight as the candidates move toward the May 19 nomination election.
TX-33
Former Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee Colin Allred (D), who eschewed another Senate bid to run for the new open 33rd Congressional District, released the results of his internal GBAO Research survey (12/14-17; 500 TX-33 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview). The ballot test projects Mr. Allred topping 32nd District US Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch), who chose to seek re-election in the new 33rd CD, by a whopping 58-30% margin.
The Democratic nominee will capture the open seat in November. The Texas primary is March 3. If no candidate receives majority support, the top two finishers will advance to a May 26 runoff election.
GOVERNOR
Minnesota
Apparently related to the fraud scandal associated with certain Minnesota public assistance programs that have driven his polling numbers down, Gov. Tim Walz (D) announced during the week that he is ending his quest for a third term as the state’s Governor. In response to the move, veteran US Senator and former presidential candidate Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) confirmed that she is seriously considering entering the now open Governor’s race. Regardless of who wins the Democratic nomination, the party’s candidate will be the favorite to hold the position in the November general election.
Nevada
Washoe County Commissioner Alexis Hill released the results of her internal Democratic gubernatorial primary poll, but the results show Attorney General Aaron Ford holding a wide lead for the June 9 statewide primary as the Nevada Independent political blog reports. The Change Research survey (12/11-18; 555 NV likely Democratic primary voters; online) shows AG Ford leading Ms. Hill, 48-13%. Even after push questions designed to pump Ms. Hill’s standing were asked, the secondary ballot test favors Mr. Ford, 47-26 percent. The Democratic primary winner will challenge Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) in the general election.
Ohio
Presumptive Republican gubernatorial nominee Vivek Ramaswamy announced that state Senate President Rob McColley (R-Napoleon) will be his Lt. Governor running mate for the 2026 campaign. This move affects the 9th District US House race as national Republicans had hoped that Sen. McColley would challenge vulnerable US Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo).
Texas
Andrew White, businessman and son of the late former Governor Mark White (D), announced that he is ending his quest for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. In his withdrawal statement, Mr. White said he is endorsing state Representative Gina Hinojosa (D-Austin) for the party nomination. The eventual Democratic nominee will challenge Gov. Greg Abbott (R) who is running for a fourth term.
