SENATE
Florida
Polls have been seesawing between appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R) and state Rep. Angie Nixon (D-Jacksonville) in another state where Republican candidates habitually under poll. After St. Pete Polls (10/5-7; 836 FL likely general election voters; interactive voice response system) detected only a 47-45% edge for Sen. Moody, two later surveys, Stetson University (10/1-9; 716 FL likely voters) and MDW Communications (10/4-10; 2,351 FL likely voters; online) found the Senator holding larger leads of 52-41 and 48-42%.
It is likely that Sen. Moody will win her first Senate special election in a margin well beyond the polling margin of error.
Michigan
After a series of close polls that found Democratic former Wayne County Health Department Director Abdul El-Sayed leading former US Representative and 2024 US Senate Republican nominee Mike Rogers, a new Tyson Group survey (10/6-8; 600 MI likely general election voters) sees the GOP nominee forging ahead with a 46-44% edge. The Michigan race continues to poll close and should be considered one of the bellwethers of the 2026 US Senate campaigns as a precursor to the next chamber majority.
Minnesota
While most of the Senate races appear trending Democratic, Minnesota Republican Michele Tafoya continues to move closer to Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan in their battle to succeed retiring Sen. Tina Smith (D). The recent SurveyUSA poll, conducted for KSTP-TV covering the Twin Cities (10/8-12; 718 MN likely general election voters), finds Ms. Flanagan leading Ms. Tafoya, 45-42%, again only within the polling margin of error. Democrats appear to be underperforming in all Minnesota statewide races, suggesting that a Tafoya upset in the Senate race remains a possibility.
Mississippi
A Wedgewood Polls survey of 511 likely general election voters, conducted online from October 12-14, shows Sen. Cindy Hyde‑Smith (R) leading eastern regional Mississippi District Attorney Scott Colom (D) by just a 52-48% margin.
The sample size is small for a statewide poll, and the questionnaire consists of only a single item: the ballot test. While the demographic and political weighting appears consistent with statewide benchmarks, the absence of undecided or refusing to answer respondents strongly suggests that the published results reflect only those who answered the ballot question, not the full set of individuals who opened the email invitation. The pollsters did not disclose the total number of opens, leaving the true response rate unknown.
Because Mississippi is one of only three states, Alabama and New Hampshire being the other two, that does not offer early voting, the race will not provide early vote progression indicators. Therefore, this race will culminate on November 3rd.
Montana
A new poll conducted for Independent Montana Senate candidate Seth Bodnar finds him, for the first time, leading Republican former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme in the open statewide race. While the survey raises methodological questions, its topline results suggest the campaign’s closing weeks could prove more challenging for Republicans than initially expected.
The Concord Public Opinion Partners poll (10/6-8; 405 Montana likely general election voters; live interview & text), conducted for the Bodnar campaign, shows the Independent, an Army Green Beret veteran and former University of Montana president, leading Mr. Alme, Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead, and Libertarian candidate Kyle Austin by a 37-35-13-1% margin.
Montana was the Democrats’ strongest opportunity for an Independent coalition strategy, given Bodnar’s relative strength among the coalition candidates running in Idaho, Nebraska, and South Dakota. Ms. Bankhead’s decision to remain in the race after winning the primary eliminated that possibility. Regardless of this latest Montana Senate poll, Mr. Alme still remains the best positioned candidate to win a plurality victory in November.
Nebraska
After seeing the Senate race between incumbent Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) and Independent Dan Osborn run close for most of the cycle, and typically with the latter man possessing a close lead, a new survey finds the Senator beginning to rebound to forge a small edge.
A NPA Polling survey (10/2-5; 800 NE likely general election voters; live interview & text) posts Sen. Ricketts to a 46-43% lead over Mr. Osborn. While the initial ballot test is slightly more positive for Sen. Ricketts than Mr. Osborn, some of the underlying data suggests that the turnout pattern is favoring the Democrats. According to the poll analysis, those most motivated to vote, answering the question as a 10 of 10, favor Mr. Osborn 48-43%, while the rest of the sample backs Sen. Ricketts, 57-24%.
While Osborn has the advantage with younger voters (under 55) 49-36%, voters 55 and older back Ricketts, 55-38 percent. As we know, the older voters almost always have the higher turnout rates. The 2024 Senate race between Sen. Deb Fischer (R) and Mr. Osborn ended in a 53.2 – 46.5% Fischer win after Osborn led in polling for much of the general election campaign, just as he has in this race.
HOUSE
GA-7
A surprising poll comes from the suburban area of north Georgia. A 20/20 Insight survey (10/6-9; 457 GA-7 likely general election voters) finds US Rep. Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee) trailing his Democratic opponent, attorney and Afghan and Iraq War veteran Tony Kozycki, by a 47-45% margin. The poll suggests this is yet another surprising toss-up race involving a Republican incumbent. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the 7th District’s partisan lean is 61.5R – 36.3D, so even with a close poll result upsetting Rep. McCormick will still be a difficult task.
KY-6
A series of four polls from late September through October 5th are all showing basically the same result. That is, Democrat Zach Dembo, an attorney and Navy veteran, holding a single digit lead over Republican former state Senator and 2019 Lt. Governor nominee Ralph Alvarado. This is a significant race because it will be a conversion seat for the Democrats since US Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) has held the seat for seven terms. Mr. Barr, the 2026 GOP US Senate nominee, is now the odds-on favorite to succeed retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R).
NE-2
The Nebraska statewide NPA Polling survey (10/2-5; 800 NE likely general election voters; 377 NE-2 likely voters; live interview & text) finds Democrat Denise Powell leading Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding (R) in the open 2nd District race by a strong 50-38% count in a previously Republican district that continues to move closer to the Democrats. This will be a conversion victory for the Democrats as it is now very likely that Ms. Powell will succeed retiring Congressman Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha).
NM-2
In another race that seems to be running against the current political grain, another poll in southern New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District verifies that a close race is again unfolding in the state’s swing CD. A Research & Polling firm survey (10/1-9; 383 NM-2 likely general election voters) sees two-term US Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-Las Cruces) leading retired police officer Gregg Cunningham (R) by a 44-40% margin.
In 2022, Rep. Vasquez unseated then Rep. Yvette Harrell (R) by a tight 50.3 – 49.6% margin. He was re-elected in 2024, again versus Ms. Herrell with 52.1% of the vote. Despite polling showing the Congressman significantly below the 50% support level, Rep. Vasquez is again favored in his re-election bid. Despite being heavily outspent, challenger Cunningham is still expected to run close.
NC-1
Until recently, Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) appeared to be defying the region’s political history, but the newest polling suggests a tightening race. Since June, three Democratic surveys and one Republican poll have been released. The Democratic firms, GQR (twice) and GBAO, showed Davis leading by an average of 47.3 – 41.0 percent.
The co/efficient Research survey (Oct. 6-8; 623 likely voters; live interview & text), however, found Ms. Buckhout slightly ahead, 43-42 percent, marking a notable improvement for the Republican and potentially reflecting deeper GOP strength of the newly added territory more accurately than earlier polls.
In the 2024 campaign, polls from Noble Predictive Insights and GQR released in late September and mid-October, respectively, found Rep. Davis holding an average 9.5 percent lead. As we saw in the 2024 final result, that lead decreased to a 1.7 percent margin. If a similar Republican undercount occurs, as has been common in many regions over the past four election cycles, Ms. Buckhout may be in a stronger position than the topline numbers suggest.
VA-2
In what was again expected to be a close race between US Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach) and ex-Rep. Elaine Luria (D) in their rematch of the 2022 campaign, Christopher Newport University, a regular Virginia pollster (10/1-10; 702 VA-2 likely general election voters; live interview), finds the former Congresswoman staked to a small lead. According to the CMU findings, Luria would lead Kiggans, 46-43%. This is another survey result polling within the margin of error meaning that the race is a toss-up as early voting continues toward election day voting on November 3rd.
GOVERNOR
Connecticut
Gov. Ned Lamont (D) is seeking a third term and looks to be cruising toward victory on November 3rd. A recently released Emerson College poll (10/10-12; 800 CT likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) projects the Governor leading state Sen. Ryan Fazio (R-Greenwich) by a 51-38% count.
Quinnipiac University also surveyed the Connecticut electorate (10/8-12; 1,225 CT likely general election voters; live interview) and found Gov. Lamont outdistancing Sen. Fazio, 58-38%. These polls are consistent with other recent surveys and all project the Governor having little trouble continuing his tenure in office.
Florida
Some of the same polls that tested the Florida Senate race (see Florida Senate above) also asked the open gubernatorial contest question. Though US Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is viewed as the race leader over former Congressman David Jolly who served as a Republican and an Independent, and is now running as a Democrat, several polls have suggested a close finish is expected.
From the end of September through mid-October, eight polls have been released from eight different pollsters and Rep. Donalds has led in six with Change Research (10/8-10; 920 FL likely voters; online) and St. Pete Polls (10/5-7; 836 FL likely general election voters; interactive voice response system) finding the two tied. The polls were all conducted between the September 28th thru October 11th period and see Rep. Donalds holding an average lead of 4.6 percent. Factoring in the typical Florida Republican under poll spread suggests the Congressman’s lead is several points larger.
Georgia
According to an Insider Advantage poll, GOP gubernatorial nominee Rick Jackson deciding not to debate former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) on a statewide televised debate has not hurt his standing. The IA poll, conducted after the debate (10/12-13; 800 GA likely general election voters), still finds Mr. Jackson holding a tight 49-47% edge over Ms. Lance Bottoms. The margin, however, still puts this race, like many others, in the toss-up category because the result is within the polling margin of error.
Minnesota
As covered above (see Minnesota Senate) the recent SurveyUSA poll, conducted for KSTP-TV covering the Twin Cities (10/8-12; 718 MN likely general election voters), also projects a closer-than-expected open gubernatorial race but one that Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) will likely win. The current SUSA poll finds Klobuchar leading state House Speaker Lisa Demuth (R-Cold Spring) by a 48-41% count, but that is far below Sen. Klobuchar’s 60% average vote in her four successful Senate elections.
