SENATE
Alabama
The new Alabama Poll (Released 2/6; 500 AL likely Republican primary voters) suggests a closing Republican US Senate primary contest. According to the new survey results, Attorney General Steve Marshall leads US Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) and retired Navy SEAL and anti-human trafficking activist Jared Hudson, 26-17-8%. Though still trailing, the result is a net nine-point improvement for Rep. Moore after he received President Trump’s endorsement.
The Congressman also has a slight advantage in cash-on-hand according to the latest Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports. It was also just announced that Rep. Moore will get a major funding boost. A crypto currency Super PAC is reportedly forming to launch a $5 million effort to help the Congressman in his Senate race. The eventual Republican nominee will become a prohibitive favorite to win the general election.
Illinois
Two polls both showing US Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumberg) leading the Democratic primary were released during the week. Public Policy Polling, surveying for the Lt. Governor’s Association that backs Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (2/2-4; 574 IL likely Democratic primary voters; live interview and text), finds Rep. Krishnamoorthi’s advantage to be 34-23-8% over Lt. Gov. Stratton and US Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago), respectively.
Victory Research, in an earlier poll (surveying for the Illinois Politics Blog; 1/21-25; 806 IL likely Democratic primary voters), found the Krishnamoorthi margin to be 32-21-11% over Stratton and Kelly. The Congressman has consistently led this race from the beginning, and he will likely be victorious in the March 17 Illinois Democratic primary. The eventual general election winner will succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D).
Minnesota
A new Emerson College poll (2/6-8; 1,000 MN likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds Republican former national sportscaster Michele Tafoya climbing into competitive range. Though trailing, this ballot test projects her within six and seven points of Democratic Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan and US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake). Contrasting the data, the Governor’s question finds US Senator Amy Klobuchar (D) running with over 50% support against all potential Republican nominees.
Texas
A series of political surveys conducted in late January and early February are now in the public domain, and we again see data suggesting that four-term Sen. John Cornyn is virtually assured of being forced into a runoff election once votes are cast and counted in the March 3 Texas Republican primary.
Four new polls have been released, and while each produces different ballot test numbers the conclusion is similar: that is, we will see two of the three major contenders – Sen. Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton and US Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston), advancing into a secondary nomination election on May 26. The difference between these and other polls is that Mr. Hunt is gaining enough momentum to position himself to possibly make the runoff.
HOUSE
CA-3
US Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento) announced this week that he will not seek re-election in the state’s newly drawn Democratic 3rd District where he would battle current 6th District Congressman Ami Bera (D-Sacramento). Mr. Kiley says he will announce his re-election campaign at a later date. It is likely he will challenge fellow US Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Elk Grove) in a safely Republican district. He could also run in the new open 6th District that houses more of the city of Sacramento, but this seat is also strongly Democratic.
CA-43
Myla Rahman, a liberal non-profit organization executive who was running for the state Assembly, announced that instead she will file against veteran US Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Los Angeles). Her move will likely lead to a cycle-long campaign as both she and Waters will likely qualify for the general election. Ms. Rahman is already drawing a contrast with Rep. Waters on the age issue. The Congresswoman is seeking re-election at 87 years of age, while Ms. Rahman says she is a more energetic 53-year-old who is closer to the local community.
FL-20
A new Listener Group survey conducted for the Political Matrix News (2/2-4; 300 FL-20 likely Democratic primary voters) confirms that indicted two-term US Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Miramar) trails in her bid for renomination. Community organizer Elijah Manley posts a 38-35-10% lead over Rep. Cerfilus-McCormick and former Broward County Commissioner Dale Holness. Also expected to join the race is local Hip Hop artist and former mayoral candidate Luther Campbell.
IN-7
Attorney Destiny Wells, the former Democratic nominee for Secretary of State in 2022 and Attorney General in 2024, announced that she will challenge US Rep. Andre Carson (D-Indianapolis) for renomination. Rep. Carson was first elected in a 2008 special election to replace his grandmother, veteran Congresswoman Julia Carson (D) who had passed away. The Congressman will be favored to win renomination and the general election.
NV-2
Ending what will be a 30-year career in elective and party politics when this Congress concludes, Nevada US Rep. Mark Amodei (R-Carson City) announced that he will not seek a ninth term in the House later this year. Mr. Amodei is the 51st House member not to seek re-election in this cycle. Another six open seats are created through new redistricting maps in California, Texas and Utah. The number also includes the three districts, in California, Georgia and New Jersey, that are vacant and currently in special election cycles.
Mark Amodei was first elected to federal office in a 2011 special election after then-US Rep. Dean Heller (R) was appointed to the Senate. Prior to winning the US House seat, he served 14 years in the Nevada legislature. The open 2nd District is expected to remain Republican.
NJ-11
Democratic Socialist Analila Mejia is now the official winner of the 11th District special election, which ended in a close contest between she and former 7th District US Rep. Tom Malinowski (D). During the campaign, state Assemblywoman Rosie Bagolie (D) indicated that she was considering running in the regular election and against the person who would win the April 16 special general, now presumably Ms. Mejia. Assemblywoman Bagolie has since backed away from such a plan.
Conversely, former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way (D), who finished third in the special election, reportedly is considering whether to wage a regular election primary challenge to Ms. Mejia. The New Jersey candidate filing deadline is March 23 for the associated June 2 primary election. Therefore, this district will still be attracting political attention at least through the candidate filing period.
NC-1
An AI support group is forming an unusual Super PAC that is obviously centered only around the endorsed candidate’s position over light regulation pertaining to artificial intelligence. The group is reportedly planning to invest $500,000 to support Republican 2024 congressional nominee Laurie Buckhout in her comeback attempt against US Rep. Don Davis (D-NC).
The group is also expected to support Illinois Democratic congressional candidates Jesse Jackson, Jr. and Melissa Bean, both former US House members attempting political comebacks. Both North Carolina and Illinois have March primaries.
TX-18
Recent polling finds new Congressman Christian Menefee (D-Houston) posting a commanding lead over veteran US Rep. Al Green (D-Houston), despite the latter man representing 65% of the new 18th District’s constituency as compared to just 26% from the district where Mr. Menefee just won a special election.
Lake Research Partners released their poll (2/2-8; 430 TX-18 likely Democratic primary voters; online and text) that posts Rep. Menefee to a 49-29-7% lead over Rep. Green and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards.
Weighing her chances after losing in a landslide to Rep. Menefee in the January 31 special election, Ms. Edwards has now suspended her regular election campaign thus effectively dropping out of the race. The Texas primary is March 3. If no one receives majority support, the top two finishers will advance to a May 26 runoff election. Retired Defense and Intelligence analyst Gretchen Brown remains in the Democratic primary contest.
TX-34
Attorney Eric Flores (R), who has President Trump’s support, is running new primary ads attacking former US Rep. Mayra Flores for losing two elections to US Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen). The ads are a bit unfair in that she lost to Rep. Gonzalez in a previous district that was designed to elect a Democrat, yet she ran far ahead of the previous Republican benchmarks. The Flores vs. Flores (the two are not related) battle will prove to be an interesting primary on March 3. The eventual Republican nominee will face Rep. Gonzalez, but this time in a much more Republican friendly CD.
Virginia Redistricting
While the 2026 Virginia redistricting process is legally disqualified, Democrats are still moving forward with attempting to hold a referendum election. They are even to the point of having candidates announce for the new districts.
The court ruling, which invalidated the process because the judge ruled the legislature violated their own rules in order to rush through votes to schedule a special referendum election, is on appeal with the state Supreme Court. The high court has yet to hear the case, so the current Democratic political activity could well be for naught.
GOVERNOR
Alaska
Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), who had not ruled out entering her state’s open Governor’s race, said to reporters earlier in the week that she will not run later this year and restated her commitment to serve Alaskans in the US Senate. The Senator’s decision looks to lay the groundwork for an interesting 2028 campaign, however. Term-limited Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) has already said he plans to challenge Sen. Murkowski in the next election.
Arizona
2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson (R), who President Trump co-endorsed along with US Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert), ended her campaign at the end of the week. Ms. Robson said she did not want to divide the party through a tough primary. Therefore, Rep. Biggs is becoming the consensus GOP candidate to oppose Gov. Katie Hobbs (D).
New York
Gov. Kathy Hochul easily won her party’s endorsement at the New York Democratic state convention last weekend with an 85-15% delegate vote victory over Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado. Because Mr. Delgado fell below the 25% support threshold at the convention, he must access the ballot through petition signatures. To qualify for a ballot line, Mr. Delgado must submit 15,000 valid signatures by April 6. Instead, the Lt. Governor decided to end his campaign, saying he no longer has “a path to victory.”
South Carolina
The National Public Affairs polling organization released a new survey (2/2-5; 800 SC likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text) of the South Carolina electorate. In a battle of conflicting polls, NPA’s results find Attorney General Wilson leading 23-17-16-12-2% over US Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), Lt. Governor Pamela Evette, US Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) and state Senator Josh Kimbrell (R-Spartanburg). Other recent polls have found both Lt. Gov. Evette and Rep. Mace leading the crowded field.
The South Carolina primary is scheduled for June 9. If no candidate receives majority support, the top two finishers will advance to a quick secondary election scheduled for June 23.
STATE AND LOCAL
Arizona
Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) signed legislation moving the state’s primary from August 4 of this year to July 21. The measure also sets future primaries for the second to last Tuesday in July. The new law takes effect immediately, so the 2026 Arizona primary date has now officially moved.
