AK: Sen. Sullivan Now Trailing Former US Rep. Mary Peltola

But campaign expected to heat up after August qualifying election


A new Alaska Survey Research poll finds two-term Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) again trailing former at-large Congresswoman Mary Peltola (D) in the firm’s monthly statewide tracking survey.

The April poll (4/16–19; 1,946 likely Alaska voters; text-to-online) projects Ms. Peltola, who lost her statewide re‑election bid in 2024 and is now challenging Mr. Sullivan for his Senate seat, leading the incumbent 49.1% to 42.5%. In the March track (3/19-22; 1,340 AK likely voters; text-to-online), the ex-Representative held a six-point lead after posting a two-point edge in the January survey (1/8-11; 1,681 AK likely voters; text-to-online).

Early polling in Alaska has historically been an unreliable indicator of how campaigns ultimately conclude. The state often sees Democratic candidates perform well in initial surveys, only for Republican contenders to gain ground and frequently take control as the race enters its final stretch.

Alaska’s election system also differs from the traditional partisan primary structure used in the vast majority of states. Although voters will decide this cycle whether to keep or replace the current structure, it will remain in place for the 2026 contests.

Under the system, all candidates appear on a single, nonpartisan “jungle primary” ballot, with the top four finishers advancing to the general election. If no candidate secures a majority in November, the Ranked Choice Voting process is triggered.

At this stage, eleven candidates have announced Senate bids: five Democrats, including Ms. Peltola; four Republicans, including Sen. Sullivan; one Independent; and one Green Party candidate. The lineup will likely shift before the June 1st candidate filing deadline. All contenders will appear on the August 18th statewide qualifying election ballot, and the top four will advance to the November general election.

Campaign finance is unlikely to pose a challenge for either major party contender in a state with just under 600,000 voters. According to first‑quarter Federal Election Commission financial disclosure filings, Sen. Sullivan has raised just under $9.1 million and reports $7.1 million in cash on hand. Ms. Peltola has attracted a comparable $8.7 million, with $5.7 million remaining to spend.

Sen. Sullivan was first elected in 2014, defeating then-incumbent Mark Begich (D) with a 48.0 – 45.8% margin in a regular election format. He was re-elected in 2020 with 53.9% of the vote against Independent Al Gross. Alaska did not adopt its top‑four qualifying primary and Ranked Choice general election format until 2022, following voter approval of a 2020 ballot initiative.

Had the top‑four system been in place in 2014, Sen. Sullivan might not have prevailed. Because he fell short of a majority in the general election, the Ranked Choice tabulation could have shifted the outcome to Mr. Begich once minor‑party candidates were eliminated and voters’ second and third choice preferences were added to the aggregate total. By contrast, Sullivan’s 2020 result would not have launched additional Ranked Choice rounds because he secured majority support.

To date, the Ranked Choice system has generally benefited Democrats, and in particular Ms. Peltola in her congressional races. In 2024, however, her Republican challenger, Nick Begich III, emerged as the beneficiary. In the initial round of the general election, he finished ahead with a 48.4% to 46.4% margin.

Because neither candidate reached 50%, Ranked Choice tabulation was triggered. After Democrat Eric Hafner was eliminated in the second round, Peltola narrowed the gap, trailing Begich 48.8% to 47.0%. In the third round, however, when Independence Party candidate John Wayne Howe was removed, Mr. Begich widened his lead and secured victory with 51.2% of the vote.

Regardless of how many candidates enter the 2026 race, both Sen. Sullivan and Ms. Peltola are certain to advance into the general election. As a result, the truly competitive phase of this important campaign will begin in earnest after the August qualifying election.