SENATE
Maine
The Maine Democratic Party has scheduled a snap convention in Bangor on July 25th to select a replacement for resigned U.S. Senate nominee Graham Platner. After delivering a video address late last week, Mr. Platner formally submitted his withdrawal papers to the Maine Secretary of State.
The convention will consist of 601 voting delegates: the 101 members of the Democratic State Committee and 500 county‑based delegates apportioned according to the raw vote totals Kamala Harris received in 2024. Because Ms. Harris performed strongest in southern Maine, the delegate pool will be heavily weighted toward that region, even though the in‑person convention is being held in Bangor. The northern location may simply reflect the challenge of securing a large venue on short notice.
Several individuals have begun positioning themselves for the nomination. Three losing gubernatorial candidates – former Maine Health Director Nirav Shah, who finished first in the initial vote but lost under Ranked Choice Voting; former state Senate President Troy Jackson, who placed third; and Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, who finished fourth – are taking steps toward entering the race. Former congressional aide Jordan Wood, who placed a close third in the initial 2nd District primary vote, and fourth‑place finisher Paige Loud have also expressed interest. The convention winner will advance to the general election to face five-term incumbent Susan Collins (R).
Michigan
The Michigan Senate Democratic primary has undergone significant change within the past ten days. State Senator Mallory McMorrow’s withdrawal leaves US Representative Haley Stevens and former Wayne County Health, Human, and Veterans Services Department director Abdul El‑Sayed competing for her supporters.
Two new polls, conducted during the same period, present sharply different pictures of the race. The Glengariff polling firm that regularly surveys the Michigan electorate, conducted for the Detroit News, posts Rep. Stevens to a 48-41% lead over Dr. El-Sayed. The Data for Progress firm, however, sees a much different result. Their survey, conducted for the American Priorities Super Pac, projects Dr. El-Sayed as holding a double-digit lead of 54-41 percent. Taken together, the surveys show a net 20‑point swing in the candidates’ respective leads, underscoring how unsettled this primary remains
North Carolina
According to the most recent Public Policy Polling survey, the North Carolina race is getting closer. The PPP study (7/10-11; 759 NC likely general election voters; text & live interview) finds former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley coming within a 48-44% spread of former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) in their open US Senate race. Until this poll, Mr. Cooper had averaged leading the race by just over nine percentage points in 14 surveys conducted since the beginning of this year. North Carolina remains the Democrats’ best conversion opportunity, but this PPP poll could be the inevitable beginning of the race closing as the candidates begin to move toward the November vote.
Pennsylvania
One of the media’s favorite spin stories is whether Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) will leave the Democratic Party before he seeks re-election in 2028. A new Quinnipiac University survey again suggests that the Senator, while posting positive approval numbers among Independents and Republicans is viewed poorly among his own party members.
The new Pennsylvania Q-Poll Sen. Fetterman’s overall job approval is 48:41% favorable to unfavorable. In one of the strangest juxtapositions ever seen for a sitting politician, his favorability among members of his own Democratic party is a dismal 19:69, while among Republicans, his approval ratio stands at 77:12. His position among those identifying as Independent is also favorable at 48:44. Clearly, the Fetterman re-election scenario will be among the top stories of the 2028 election cycle.
South Carolina
Sen. Lindsey Graham’s death has thrown the South Carolina Republican Party into turmoil, and party leaders have now opted to hold an irregular, expedited primary to select a new U.S. Senate nominee.
Candidate filing will close on July 28th for a statewide August 11th primary, followed by an August 25th runoff if no contender wins a majority in the first vote. The eventual Republican nominee will face pediatrician Annie Andrews, who won the Democratic primary on June 9th. The party is working with the Department of War to satisfy the Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act, which requires adequate notice and ballot access for covered voters. Meeting these requirements under such a compressed timeline is likely not possible.
Since the Republicans cannot meet the 45-day notice requirement as federal law requires, expect the Democrats to file a federal lawsuit in an attempt to thwart having the special primary. Therefore, a possibility exists that the Republicans could be forced to retain Sen. Graham’s name on the ballot and be forced to convince people to vote for a candidate who they know is dead in order to hold a special election at the beginning of next year. Gov. Henry McMaster has appointed the late Senator’s sister, Darline Graham Nordone, to fill her brother’s vacancy. She will serve until January 3rd, unless she chooses to enter the special primary.
HOUSE
FL-14
Florida US Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Tampa) has held a safely Democratic Tampa anchored seat for 20 years, but she now faces the most difficult campaign of her career because of the new Sunshine State redistricting map.
According to Dave’s Redistricting App, the new configuration carries a 55.5R – 43.4D partisan lean – a net shift of nearly 31 points toward the GOP when compared with the 2021 map.
Florida’s primary is August 18th, so Castor will not know her Republican opponent for several weeks. A new St. Pete Polls survey (7/14-15; 469 FL-14 likely voters; automated calling and text) projects Rep. Castor to be holding a lead over the two most likely individuals favored to win the GOP primary.
According to the St. Pete data, Rep. Castor leads both former state Rep. Mike Beltran and current state Rep. Kevin Steele (R-Hudson), one of whom is likely to top the field of eight Republican hopefuls. Isolated with Mr. Beltran, the Castor advantage is 46-38%. If Rep. Steele becomes the party nominee, the early result is an almost identical 46-39%.
These early numbers likely reflect Castor’s strong name recognition. Once Republicans choose a nominee and the general election begins in earnest, the race is expected to tighten. FL‑14 is a must‑win for Republicans if they hope to maintain their narrow House majority.
NV-2
Controversy surrounds Republican nominee David Flippo, a retired Air Force Lt. Colonel, in Nevada’s safest GOP seat. Critics highlight his recent political history: Mr. Flippo ran for Congress in NV‑4 in 2024 and for the state Assembly in a North Las Vegas district in 2022 – both far from the northern, Reno‑anchored NV‑2.
Despite the 2nd District’s strong Republican partisan lean (53.8R – 40.5D, per Dave’s Redistricting App), the new GOP congressional nominee trails in a recent ballot test. A Wedgewood Polls survey (7/9-12; 350 likely voters; online panel) shows former state House Majority Leader Teresa Benitz‑Thompson (D) leading Mr. Flippo 48-46%.
While the margin suggests a statistical tie, Flippo’s standing represents a significant underperformance in a district that should yield a mid to high 50s Republican victory in November.
WA-3
Southwest Washington remains one of the GOP’s strongest non‑redistricting conversion opportunities. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D–Skamania County) has twice surprised Republicans by winning a district with a 52.0R – 45.6D partisan lean, but she now faces a more formidable challenger.
State Senate Minority Leader John Braun (R-Chehalis) is the likely general‑election finalist emerging from the August 4th jungle primary. A new Emerson College survey (7/8–10; 500 likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) forecasts Sen. Braun as holding a slight edge over Rep. Perez, 45-44%.
In the jungle primary, Sen. Braun leads the nine‑candidate field with 26%, while Rep. Perez posts 25% – a major warning sign for the incumbent. Once the primary concludes, this race is poised to become one of the cycle’s major battles.
GOVERNOR
Alabama
Since Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) has been running for office, Democrats have dogged him with a residency argument, claiming he fails to comply with state law. Since Alabama requires statewide officials to fulfill a seven-year requirement, the residency attack has been renewed. Sen. Tuberville again won in court during the week, with the judge ruling that she did not have the authority to rule on the case. The Democrats vowed to again appeal to the higher court.
Nebraska
Former Republican state Sen. Brett Lindstrom, who was expected to become a candidate in the open 2nd Congressional District, has instead filed to run as an Independent in the Governor’s race. There, he will face incumbent Gov. Jim Pillen (R) and Democratic nominee Lynne Walz, a former state Senator and cousin of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D). Mr. Lindstrom is likely to attract some votes in the Omaha area on the Independent ballot line but Gov. Pillen remains a strong favorite for re-election.
Nevada
A recent Wedgewood Polls statewide Nevada survey (7/9-12; 700 NV likely general election voters; online panel) tested what promises to be a close gubernatorial election between Republican incumbent Joe Lombardo and Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford. The Wedgewood ballot test projects the Governor maintaining a small lead at 50-47 percent. In 2022, Mr. Lombardo, then the Clark County Sheriff, unseated then-Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) by a tight 48.8 – 47.3% margin. Nevada statewide elections are always close, and the 2026 Governor’s race will be no exception.
Pennsylvania
The aforementioned Quinnipiac Pennsylvania poll (7/9-13; 895 PA registered voters; live interview) tested the state’s Governor’s race where incumbent Josh Shapiro (D) is running for a second term. The ballot test results, as expected, find the Governor leading State Treasurer Stacy Garrity (R) by 13 percentage points, 53-40%. While the margin between the two candidates remains large, this is the closest PA Governor’s public poll of the entire campaign.
South Dakota
The Republican gubernatorial runoff is fast approaching on July 28th, and it appears that Gov. Larry Rhoden, on the ballot for his first full term after succeeding Gov. Kristi Noem (R) who resigned her office to accept a cabinet position in the Trump Administration, is well positioned for victory.
In the June 2nd primary election, businessman Toby Doeden placed first with 30.2% of the vote, edging Gov. Rhoden (25.2%), US at-large Congressman Dusty Johnson (23.4%), and state House Speaker Jon Hansenn (20.8%). A new pre-runoff poll, however, suggests that Gov. Rhoden will win the party nomination, and then the Governorship in November, with a landslide margin. Emerson College (7/12-13; 500 SD likely GOP runoff voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds the Governor leading Mr. Doeden, 62-32 percent.
