Platner Plotting; McMorrow Out

Maine and Michigan showing strong signals on the senatorial radar

While the Graham Platner Senate candidacy saga continues in Maine, another US Senate campaign development is unfolding in Michigan, the site of another critical 2026 contest.

Wolverine State Senator Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), after seeing her fortunes tumble recently with poor polling results, announced that she is suspending her US Senate campaign. The move means what was an interesting three-way Democratic primary that won’t be decided until August 4th is now between US Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed.

The plot thickens in Maine after most Democratic leaders are calling for Senate nominee Platner to withdraw from the race after yet another sexual assault incident, this time referenced as a rape, became public this week as victim Jenny Racicot came forward to tell her story. 

Time is of the essence in Maine because the deadline for nominees to withdraw from their respective campaigns is Monday, July 13th. While party leaders call for Platner to leave the race so they can choose a replacement nominee before July 27th, the party nominee who received 72% of the primary vote on June 9th has yet to acquiesce to the withdrawal demands.

At least until Monday, Platner is in the power position since he does not have to withdraw because he is the official nominee and is apparently making current demands of the party leadership. 

While reports are surfacing that many supporters, including his campaign manager, are telling Mr. Platner that he can overcome the current bad publicity over the rape accusation – he publicly denies Ms. Racicot’s accounting of her story – the nominee is reportedly telling the party leaders that one price for him leaving the race is that he be allowed to choose his own successor.

Under Maine’s election law, withdrawal deadlines are stated and the party is given a time period – in 2026, until July 27th – to choose a new nominee but the law is silent regarding the replacement procedure. Therefore, Mr. Platner could insist they choose his candidate. Otherwise, he does not have to withdraw. 

While many Democratic politicians are beginning to position themselves in an attempt to succeed Platner, including many of the gubernatorial candidates who lost on June 9th, such moves become moot if the nominee refuses to withdraw on Monday. Therefore, if Platner does nothing between now and Monday afternoon, he remains the Democratic US Senate nominee.

In certain ways, the Michigan race is the harbinger of which party will control the Senate in the next Congress. While Republicans hold a 53-47 current majority margin, a loss in North Carolina to Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper, which appears likely at this point, will pull the Democrats within a 52-48 deficit.

Among the three Democratic competitive defense states this year, Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire, the Republicans’ best chance at scoring a conversion comes in the Wolverine State where former Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers has a legitimate chance to win the general election.

Before Sen. McMorrow’s move to end her active campaign, the battle appeared as a tight three-way contest among herself, Stevens, and El-Sayed. Recent polling, however, detected McMorrow falling significantly behind, leading to her early exit.

Eight polls, from seven different pollsters, over a period beginning in mid-May to the present find El-Sayed leading the race with McMorrow now trailing far behind, averaging just 13% support and placing third in each of these Democratic Senate race polls.

The Democratic battle will now continue as Rep. Stevens will attempt to attract the McMorrow support in order to overcome El-Sayed’s lead. We can expect a close outcome on August 4th.

With Democrats having current problems in these two critical Senate races, Republican prospects of holding their small majority have improved. Next week is sure to bring further interesting developments in both Michigan and Maine.