El-Sayed’s Close Win; Results: KS; MO; VA; WA

Surprises, No Surprises — and a Razor-thin Victory

The marquee race of the August 4th primary night, the Michigan Senate Democratic primary race, came down to a small number of votes, which defied the polling projections. 

Former Wayne County Health/Human/ Veterans Department director Abdul El-Sayed was projected late last night as a close winner over US Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham). He began the counting with a large lead, but Ms. Stevens consistently chipped away until the final El-Sayed margin will be approximately 20,000 votes from more than 1.4 million Democratic primary votes cast.

Nine different July pollsters all forecast a large El-Sayed lead, one where he was averaging just under a 15-percentage point advantage, but the final margin proved razor thin. Abdul El-Sayed now faces former seven-term Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers who was unopposed in the Republican primary. The Michigan general election is likely to be the key to which party will hold the Senate majority in the new Congress.

Kansas

The open Governor’s race for both parties was the premier draw in last night’s Kansas primary. For the Republicans, aiming to convert the Governor’s office back to their party after what will be eight years of Democratic control under term-limited state chief executive Laura Kelly, state Senate President Ty Masterson (R-Andover) was an easy winner.

On the Democratic side in a battle between two state Senators, Cindy Holscher (D-Overland Park) defeated Gov. Kelly’s endorsed candidate, Ethan Corson (D-Prairie Village). The general election is expected to be competitive. Republican primary turnout exceeded the Democratic numbers, which gives Sen. Masterson a boost as the candidates turn toward November.

Michigan

Beyond the close Senate race, voters chose nominees in the Governor’s campaign. As predicted, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson recorded a landslide victory in the Democratic primary. For the Republicans, US Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills), who has twice come close in statewide campaigns, won the party nomination with just over 50% of the vote against three Republican candidates, though one ended his active campaign last week. 

Looking at the state’s voting history and the strong Democratic primary turnout as compared to the Republican number, Ms. Benson will begin the general election race as the favorite.

In the House races, we first look toward the western 4th District.  Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) will attract more than 80% of the final Republican primary vote. His opponent, as expected for the competitive general election, is state Sen. Sean McCann (D-Kalamazoo), an easy Democratic primary winner.

In the 7th District, which is likely to be the most competitive race in the general election, freshman US Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Charlotte/Lansing) was unopposed for renomination. His general election opponent will be political activist William Lawrence who scored a 43% Democratic primary victory over former US Ambassador Bridget Brink and retired Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam.   

In the open 10th District that Rep. James vacated to run for Governor, National Guard officer and Iraq War veteran Michael Bouchard Jr., son of the long-time Oakland County Sheriff and ex-statewide candidate, recorded a 73% victory over three Republican opponents. For the Democrats, in what promises to be a very tight general election, former Macomb County Prosecutor nominee Christina Hines defeated two Democratic opponents with 46% of the vote.

Turning to Rep. Stevens open 11th District, state Senate President Pro Tempore Jeremy Moss captured 41% of the vote against three Democratic opponents to clinch the party nomination. He now becomes the prohibitive favorite to win the general election in a safely Democratic seat.

The 13th District Democratic primary challenge to Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) could end in deposing the incumbent. With just under half the vote counted, state Rep. Donovan McKinney (D-Detroit) leads Rep. Thanedar, 51-49%, in a race that is still too close to call.

Missouri

With no Senate or Governor’s race on the ballot, the US House races led the ballot. 

In the 1st District, former Congresswoman Cori Bush launched a political comeback attempt against the man who defeated her in the 2024 Democratic primary, current Congressman Wesley Bell (D-St. Louis). 

Last night, Rep. Bell posted a strong 59-37% victory over the former Congresswoman and “Squad” member. Winning the Democratic primary in this St. Louis district is tantamount to claiming the general election, so Rep. Bell is virtually guaranteed re-election in the Autumn.

In the redistricted 5th CD, state Sen. Rick Brattin (R-Kansas City) was the clear Republican primary winner. He will now face US Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Kansas City) in a district that does not resemble the downtown Kansas City seat that the Congressman has represented since the beginning of 2005. Now the 5th District is a Republican seat that stretches into the state’s rural areas and Rep. Cleaver must be considered as an underdog for the general election. 

The MO-5 race now becomes a must-win Republican campaign if the GOP is to have a chance at holding their slim national majority.

The open 6th District was decided last night in the Republican primary. There, radio talk show host Chris Stigall, who carried retiring 13-term Congressman Sam Graves’ (R-Tarkio) endorsement, won last night’s Republican primary with 44% of the vote over four Republican opponents. Mr. Stigall will cruise to victory in the general election from this safe Republican northwestern Missouri congressional seat.

Virginia

In the US Senate race, Republicans chose retired Army Major General Bert Mizusawa to oppose Sen. Mark Warner (D) who is on the ballot for a fourth term. The Senator had no Democratic opposition. Sen. Warner is expected to glide to another November victory. The Senator says this new term will be his last as he will not seek re-election in 2032.

No surprises in the key competitive House races. In the 1st District, Henrico County Commonwealth Attorney Shannon Taylor easily won the Democratic primary against six Democratic opponents. Ms. Taylor will now challenge veteran Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Montrose) in the general election.

In the Tidewater anchored 2nd District, former Rep. Elaine Luria won a landslide Democratic primary victory opposite three opponents. The Luria victory sets up a rematch of the 2022 campaign between she and two-term US Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach).

In the mid-state 5th District, another former House member is attempting a political comeback. Former Rep. Tom Perriello scored a big Democratic primary win and will now challenge freshman Rep. John McGuire (R-Manakin-Sabot) who also won renomination in a landslide proportion. In a good sign for Rep. McGuire, Republican primary turnout far exceeded his Democratic counterparts’ participation figure.

In the Alexandria-Arlington 8th District, veteran Rep. Don Beyer (D-Alexandria) won renomination with 2/3 of the Democratic primary vote against four opponents.

Washington

The all-mail Washington ballots were reported quickly because the state election officials allow the counting and release of the vote totals after the polls close. Therefore, result reporting is quick. Approximately 50% of the projected vote total came through early voting.

In the 3rd District, with under 60% of the vote counted, it is clear that Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Skamania County) and state Senate Minority Leader John Braun (R-Chehalis) will advance to the general election. The early vote totals have Rep. Perez and Sen. Braun virtually even, again suggesting that this will be a premier general election campaign and a likely must-win for the GOP if they are to hold the majority.

The open 4th District sees Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney (R) and retired Air Force officer John Duresky advancing to the general election. The open 4th District (Rep. Dan Newhouse-R retiring) is one of two safe Republican seats in the state. This gives Ms. McKinney the clear inside track to claiming the general election in November.

In the Spokane anchored 5th District, freshman Rep. Michael Baumgartner (R-Spokane) captured just about 50% of the early vote and has clinched the first general election slot. It appears that Democratic retired US diplomat Carmela Conroy will also advance. Rep. Baumgartner will be favored for re-election.