Where Key Statewide and Congressional Races Stand as Vote Counting Continues Toward the Holidays
Several more races have been projected as 15 races in the House and two in the Senate remain outstanding:
Alaska
In the Senate race, former US Rep. Mary Peltola (D) leads GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan 48.6 – 47.5% with approximately 75,000 votes to count according to NBC News. Since both could finish under 50%, the race would then go into the Ranked Choice Voting rounds once the count is finally finished. Expect this race to be decided closer to Thanksgiving.
In the Governor’s race, the Democratic nominee, former state Representative Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, is at 49.6% with a big lead over a large ballot. He has a chance to win the race outright. If not, he will very likely win in the first RCV round.
At-large Rep. Nick Begich (R-Chugiak) currently has 49.2% of the vote and is also in position to top 50% before going to RCV. He, too, is expected to win the race either in the outright vote or RCV.
Arizona
District 2 Rep. Eli Crane (R-Oro Valley) has been projected the winner with 49.6% of the vote. The Arizona delegation is now complete and the Democrats netted a gain of two congressional seats.
California
The state’s elongated vote counting process likely means we won’t see final results until Thanksgiving week. The state has 36 days after the election to count and certify the final results.
Rep. Mike Thompson (D-St. Helena/Napa) continues to trail Democratic challenger Eric Jones. The latest vote count finds the challenger leading Rep. Thompson by 7,940 votes, but an estimated 89,000 ballots remain uncounted.
In District 7, Rep. Doris Matsui (D-Sacramento) leads her Democratic opponent, Sacramento City Councilwoman Mai Vang, with a 21,772 vote spread with approximately 81,000 votes remaining uncounted.
In District 23, Rep. Jay Obernolte (R-Big Bear Lake) leads his Democratic opponent, Clinical Social Worker Tessa Lynn Hodge, with a margin of 3,384 votes and only an estimated 16,000 votes remaining outstanding.
Colorado
The lone outstanding race is in the Centennial State’s 4th District where incumbent Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) continues to trail her Democratic opponent, retired Navy Admiral Eileen Laubacher. At this point, with approximately 8,000 votes remaining, Rep. Boebert trails by 3,352 votes. Though this race has not been officially called, it appears the Democratic challenger will unseat the Congresswoman.
Florida
Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Miami) has been projected the winner of the 26th District campaign with a vote percentage of 49.9.
The open 7th District, with Republican Ryan Elijah and the 9th District with Rep. Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee) ahead, are also uncalled. Mr. Elijah leads by 1,631 votes. Rep. Soto holds a 1,506 vote lead. It is unlikely that either of these races drastically change, meaning Mr. Elijah and Rep. Soto should soon be declared the winner.
In Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar’s 27th CD, the latest analysis makes little sense. She leads her Democratic opponent, former news anchor Eliott Rodriguez (D) by 1,090 votes, yet they claim only approximately 700 votes remain outstanding. It is likely they are waiting to see if the race falls within the automatic recount range of .5 percent between the two leading candidates. In the end, Rep. Salazar will win re-election.
Louisiana
The state’s two outstanding congressional elections are headed to December 12th runoff elections because no candidate in Districts 5 and 6 reached 50%. In both places, the aggregate Republican vote exceeded the aggregate Democratic numbers in seats that are designed to elect Republicans.
In District 5, Republican candidates received an aggregate 63.1% of the cast ballots. Two state Representatives, Patricia Moore (D-Monroe) and Gabe Firment (R-Pollock) advance to the runoff.
In CD-6, the six Republican candidates garnered an aggregate 57.4% of the vote. The two advancing candidates are former East Baton Rouge Councilwoman Chauna Banks (D) and state Senator Blake Miguez (R-New Iberia).
Minnesota
Rep. Brad Finstad (R-New Ulm) trails educator Jake Johnson (D) by 679 votes with an approximate reported 4,100 votes outstanding. It is always better to be leading in these types of situations, and NBC News estimates that Rep. Finstad would need to capture just under 54% of the remaining votes, which is likely a tall order.
Mississippi
The Senate race remains uncalled, but is virtually over. Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, after being behind by just 43 votes on election night, now trails local District Attorney Scott Colom by 2,536 votes. An estimated 26,000 votes remain outstanding, but NBC News estimates that Sen. Hyde-Smith would have to garner almost 54% of the outstanding universe.
North Carolina
Two races appear headed to recounts with one Republican incumbent barely leading and another barely trailing.
In NC-3, Rep. Greg Murphy (R-Greenville) leads former state Representative Raymond Smith by just 233 votes with an approximate 3,100 votes, likely provisional ballots, remaining uncounted.
The District 5 result is almost as close. Here, veteran Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-Banner Elk) trails retired newspaper reporter Chuck Hubbard (D) by only 99 votes with approximately 2,600 votes remaining in the process. Both of these contests could go either way once the final votes are counted and then recounted. Expect both of these situations to take weeks to determine.
Washington
In District 5, Rep. Michael Baumgartner (R-Spokane) has been declared the winner with 51.7% of the vote.
