PRIMARY RESULTS
Kansas
The open Governor’s race for both parties was the premier draw in Tuesday’s Kansas primary. For the Republicans, aiming to convert the Governor’s office back to their party after what will be eight years of Democratic control under term-limited state chief executive Laura Kelly, state Senate President Ty Masterson (R-Andover) was a landslide winner. On the Democratic side in a battle between two state Senators, Cindy Holscher (D-Overland Park) defeated Gov. Kelly’s endorsed candidate, Ethan Corson (D-Prairie Village). The general election is expected to be competitive.
Michigan
The marquee Michigan Senate Democratic primary race came down to a small number of votes, which defied the polling projections. Former Wayne County Health/Human/ Veterans Department director Abdul El-Sayed claimed a close win over US Rep. Haley Stevens.
Beyond the close Senate race, voters chose nominees in the Governor’s campaign. As predicted, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson recorded a landslide victory in the Democratic primary. For the Republicans, US Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills), who has twice come close in statewide campaigns, won the party nomination with just over 50% of the vote against three Republican candidates, though one ended his active campaign last week.
In the House races, we first look toward the western 4th District. Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) attracted 85% of the final Republican primary vote. His opponent, as expected for the competitive general election, is state Sen. Sean McCann (D-Kalamazoo), who also was an easy Democratic primary winner.
In the 7th District, which is likely to be the most competitive race in the general election, freshman US Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Charlotte/Lansing) was unopposed for renomination. His general election opponent will be political activist William Lawrence who scored a 43% Democratic primary victory over former US Ambassador Bridget Brink and retired Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam.
In the open 10th District that Rep. James vacated to run for Governor, National Guard officer and Iraq War veteran Michael Bouchard, Jr., son of the long-time Oakland County Sheriff and ex-statewide candidate, recorded a 73% victory over three Republican opponents. For the Democrats, in what promises to be a very tight general election, former Macomb County Prosecutor nominee Christina Hines defeated two Democratic opponents with 46% of the vote.
Turning to Rep. Stevens’ open 11th District, state Senate President Pro Tempore Jeremy Moss captured 41% of the vote against three Democratic opponents to clinch the party nomination. He now becomes the prohibitive favorite to win the general election in a safely Democratic seat. The 13th District Democratic primary challenge to Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) ended in deposing the incumbent. State Rep. Donovan McKinney (D-Detroit) defeated Rep. Thanedar, 51-49%, making the Congressman the eighth House member to lose renomination this year.
Missouri
In the 1st Congressional District Democratic primary, former Congresswoman Cori Bush launched a political comeback against the man who defeated her in the 2024 Democratic primary, current Congressman Wesley Bell. On Tuesday, Representative Bell posted a strong 59-37% victory over the former Congresswoman and “Squad” member and is now a lock to win re-election in the November campaign.
In the new 5th CD, state Sen. Rick Brattin was the Republican primary winner. He will now face Democratic Congressman Emanuel Cleaver in a district that no longer resembles the downtown Kansas City seat from which the Congressman has represented since 2005. Now, the 5th is a Republican seat that stretches into the state’s rural areas and Mr. Cleaver becomes a general election underdog.
Tennessee
Sen. Marsha Blackburn’s victory margin was narrower than early projections when she entered the Governor’s race, but she still secured a double‑digit win and the Republican nomination, effectively guaranteeing her path to the Governor’s Mansion in November.
Sen. Blackburn finished with a 43-33-24% victory margin over U.S. Rep. John Rose (R‑Cookeville) and state Rep. Monty Fritts (R‑Kingston). Both Rose and Fritts began with single‑digit support but steadily improved throughout the long primary cycle. Ms. Blackburn performed strongly statewide, particularly in her western Tennessee base, while Rep. Rose dominated in his home congressional district. Rep. Fritts carried five counties and posted a credible finish.
Sen. Bill Hagerty (R) was unopposed for renomination and enters the general election as a prohibitive favorite against Democratic nominee Marquita Bradshaw, who previously ran for the Senate in 2020 and 2024.
The major development in the House delegation came in the 5th District, where Rep. Andy Ogles (R‑Columbia) lost his renomination bid to former state Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher. The newly drawn 5th District, now stretching to Arkansas and including downtown Memphis, is dramatically different from the central Tennessee anchored district Ogles first won in 2022. Under the new district boundaries, Hatcher’s 53-47% victory positions him as a strong favorite over Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder, the Democratic nominee.
In Rep. Rose’s open and safely Republican 6th District, state Rep. Johnny Garrett (R‑Goodlettsville) defeated former U.S. Rep. Van Hilleary and Iraq/Afghanistan War veteran Jon Henry. Mr. Hilleary, attempting a comeback after two decades off the ballot – he served four House terms and was the GOP nominee for Governor in 2002 and for the Senate in 2006 – finished second, twelve points behind Garrett.
In the newly created 9th District, state Sen. Brent Taylor (R‑Eads), backed with endorsements from President Trump and Sens. Blackburn and Hagerty, won the Republican nomination over state Representative Todd Warner (R-Chapel Hill) and two additional candidates. Sen. Taylor will be a heavy favorite against the new Democratic nominee, state Rep. Justin Pearson (D‑Memphis), a prominent gun‑control advocate.
Virginia
In the US Senate race, Republicans chose retired Army Major General Bert Mizusawa to oppose Sen. Mark Warner (D) who is on the ballot for a fourth term. The Senator had no Democratic opposition. Sen. Warner is expected to glide to another November victory but says this new term will be his last because he will not seek re-election in 2032.
No surprises in the key competitive House races. In the 1st District, Henrico County Commonwealth Attorney Shannon Taylor easily won the Democratic primary against six opponents. Ms. Taylor will now challenge veteran Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Montrose) in the general election. In the Tidewater anchored 2nd District, former Rep. Elaine Luria won a landslide Democratic primary victory opposite three opponents. The Luria victory sets up a rematch of the 2022 campaign between she and US Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach).
In the mid-state 5th District, another former House member is attempting a political comeback. Former Rep. Tom Perriello scored a big Democratic primary win and will now challenge freshman Rep. John McGuire (R-Manakin-Sabot) who also won renomination in a landslide proportion. In a good sign for Rep. McGuire, Republican primary turnout far exceeded his Democratic counterparts’ participation figure.
Washington
Almost 80% of the projected Washington State jungle primary all-mail ballots have been tabulated. In the politically marginal 3rd District, and a major GOP conversion opportunity, it is clear that Democratic Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and Republican and state Senate Minority Leader John Braun will advance into the general election. The current totals have Sen. Braun slightly ahead, again suggesting that this will be a premier general election campaign. It is another must-win for the GOP if they are to hold the majority.
SENATE
Arkansas
Polling is close around the country right now, which is not unusual before Labor Day. Though this race will change drastically in Sen. Tom Cotton’s (R) favor, a 2040 Strategy Group survey for Democratic US Senate nominee Hallie Shoffner (released 8/5; 7/17-25; 586 AR likely voters) sees Sen. Cotton edging Ms. Shoffner by only a 46-43% split.
Iowa
Emerson College polled the Iowa electorate (8/2-4; 712 IA likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) and the results project US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) leading state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs) by a 48-45% clip. Iowa polling is always typically close throughout the summer. Usually, the Republican candidate then pulls away during the last two weeks of the race; therefore, these ballot test numbers are consistent with previous Hawkeye State survey patterns.
HOUSE
HI-1
Saturday’s upcoming Hawaii primary suggests that veteran Rep. Ed Case (D-Kaneohe) is in a close Democratic nomination race with state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole (D-Honolulu). A Blueprint Polling survey for the Keohokalole campaign (released 8/6; 7/7-8; 481 HI-1 likely Democratic primary voters) sees the Congressman holding only a 33-25% lead. Three other minor Democrats are also on the primary ballot.
Maryland Redistricting
This week, the Maryland legislature passed a referendum for the public to decide if the strict redistricting criteria that applies to drawing district boundaries should be eliminated for the congressional map. The legislature is planning to redraw the congressional map before the 2028 election in an attempt to eliminate the state’s lone Republican district. A “yes” vote on the referendum would suspend the redistricting requirements for the congressional map, thus shielding the coming gerrymander from certain litigation.
NC-11
Two-term US Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-Flat Rock/Asheville) withdrew from his 2026 re-election campaign after the House Ethics Committee voted to recommend censure proceedings for the Congressman’s inappropriate behavior involving young female staff members. The North Carolina 11th District Republican Party Executive Committee will now convene to choose a replacement candidate for the general election.
Two possible options are state Sens. Kevin Corbin (R-Franklin) and Tim Moffitt (R-Henderson). The new Republican nominee will have to generate a major campaign quickly from scratch. The Democratic nominee is agribusinessman Jamie Ager, who already has over $2 million cash-on-hand and is the grandson of former 1980s Congressman James McClure Clarke (D).
OH-7
Two-term US Rep. Max Miller (R-Rocky River) is also under pressure to withdraw from his re-election campaign. His situation surrounds domestic abuse accusations from his ex-wife and father-in-law. Rep. Miller was married to the daughter of Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno (R). The Congressman pledges to remain in the race, claiming the accusations are not true. This is another situation that merits watching. The Ohio withdrawal deadline is August 10th, leaving Rep. Miller little time to make an exit decision.
SC-7
While running for re-election to the House in South Carolina’s Myrtle Beach anchored 7th District, Rep. Russell Fry (R-Murrell’s Inlet) is also in the special Republican US Senate primary scheduled for August 11th. A Blueprint Polling survey conducted for House Democratic nominee John Vincent’s campaign, finds the 7th District race could get interesting should Rep. Fry lose the Senate primary. The Blueprint ballot test finds Rep. Fry’s general election lead at only 41-37%. Should Fry become the Senate nominee to replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, the South Carolina Republican Party would have to quickly replace him on the congressional ballot. Therefore, Sen. Graham’s death has also caused complications in this US House contest.
GOVERNOR
Iowa
The aforementioned Emerson College Iowa Senate poll (see Senate section above) also tested the state’s open Governor’s race. Here, the Democratic nominee, State Auditor Rob Sand, holds an advantage over GOP businessman Zach Lahn. The ballot test in this race is 48-43%. While the Senate numbers find Rep. Hinson’s lead consistent with typical Iowa polling patterns, Mr. Sand’s five-point edge is a more indicative sign that the Democrat has a legitimate chance of winning the general election in November.
