Hawaii Dem incumbent holds onto seat, holds off challenge from farther Left candidate
Hawaii
Confounding polling that suggested veteran Hawaii US Rep. Ed Case (D-Kaneohe) could lose his renomination campaign the Congressman instead posted a decisive 60-36% win on Saturday night. He defeated state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole (D-Honolulu) and two others.
Rep. Case now becomes the prohibitive favorite for November against the new Republican nominee, Adriel Lam, a retired Army officer who was unopposed in his primary.
Gov. Josh Green (D) easily secured renomination and likewise enters November as a strong favorite for re‑election. The same holds for 2nd District U.S. Rep. Jill Tokuda (D‑Kaneohe), who also faced little difficulty in her primary.
Tuesday Primaries
August 11th is another major primary day, with voters in six states set to nominate candidates for the general election. The second part of the Alabama primary will be held tomorrow in the House districts affected by the state’s new redistricting map.
Today’s coverage also includes key races in Connecticut, Vermont, and Wisconsin. Tomorrow, we will turn to Tuesday’s marquee contests: the Minnesota and South Carolina Senate campaigns.
Alabama
Nominees for three House districts will be decided tomorrow. Because the redistricting changes forced a new primary date for several districts, these contests will be conducted under a plurality format, meaning Alabama’s traditional runoff system will not apply.
In the Mobile anchored 1st District, former U.S. Rep. Jerry Carl (R), who lost his seat in the 2024 Republican primary after being paired with another incumbent under the previous map, is attempting a comeback in a district similar to the one he originally represented. The revised boundaries make it likely that Mr. Carl will win the nomination tomorrow and return to Congress at the start of 2027.
In the new 2nd District, which reverts to its traditional southeastern Alabama configuration, U.S. Rep. Shomari Figures (D‑Mobile) must now seek re‑election in a district that favors Republicans. In the GOP primary, state Rep. Rhett Marques (R‑Enterprise) is favored to win the nomination from a field of five candidates.
AL‑2 will be a must‑win for Republicans in November if the party hopes to maintain its slim House majority. A competitive Figures-Marques general election is expected. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean, the district favors Republicans but with only a 52.2R – 47.1D margin.
The other primary comes in District 6 where veteran Congressman Gary Palmer (R-Hoover/Shelby County) is expected to easily secure renomination for a fifth term. His central Alabama district delivered a 67% vote for President Trump in 2024, underscoring Palmer’s strong position.
Connecticut
Tomorrow’s gubernatorial primary will draw the most political attention among the Connecticut campaigns, along with a competitive Democratic contest in the Hartford anchored 1st Congressional District.
Gov. Ned Lamont (D) is seeking a third term and faces a relatively competitive challenge from state Rep. Josh Elliott (D‑Guilford). Rep. Elliott is running on affordability and tax policy, arguing that the Lamont Administration has placed too heavy a burden on the middle class.
Late July polling from several sources indicates the Governor holds a comfortable double‑digit advantage, with leads ranging from 20 to 30 points.
Tomorrow’s Democratic winner will become the heavy favorite in November against state Sen. Ryan Fazio (R‑Greenwich), who is unopposed for the GOP nomination.
In the 1st Congressional District, veteran US Rep. John Larson (D-Hartford) faces a strong Democratic primary challenge from former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin, state Rep. Jillian Gilchrest (D-West Hartford), and Hartford School Board member Ruth Fortune.
Mr. Bronin is clearly the principal challenger, but the presence of the other two candidates may allow Rep. Larson to secure renomination with a plurality. No late polling has been released, but Bronin leads the fundraising race. This contest will be worth watching.
Vermont
Gov. Phil Scott (R) is unopposed in the Republican primary as he faces voters for the sixth time. Vermont and New Hampshire remain the only two states where Governors serve two‑year terms. Despite Vermont being one of the most Democratic states in the country, Gov. Scott again enters the general election as the clear favorite.
At-large US Rep. Becca Balint (D-Brattleboro) is seeking a third term. She’s unopposed for renomination tomorrow and will sail to victory in November.
Wisconsin
The Governor’s race is the main attraction on Wisconsin’s 2026 ballot. Democratic Socialist Francesca Hong, a Madison state Representative, is favored to win the Democratic nomination – another example of a far‑left candidate prevailing in a party primary and advancing to a high-profile general election.
Her opponent will be U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany (R‑Minocqua), who faces only minimal competition for the Republican nomination. The general election is expected to draw national attention.
The state’s 3rd Congressional District, likely a rematch between U.S. Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R‑Prairie du Chien) and businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D), will also host a major national congressional campaign. Their 2024 contest ended with a narrow 51–49% Van Orden victory, and a similarly close race is anticipated this year. WI‑3 remains a top Democratic conversion target.
The open 7th District features a Republican primary in which the winner becomes the prohibitive favorite for November. Much of the attention will center on Trump‑endorsed Michael Alfonso, the son‑in‑law of U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, a former four‑term 7th District Congressman.
