ELECTION RESULTS
New Hampshire
New Hampshire voters chose their nominees Tuesday night, and its two contests important to the national political landscape are now set.
In the Senate race, as expected, U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas and former Senator John E. Sununu easily won their respective Democratic and Republican primaries and will meet in a shortened general election campaign. Early November polling suggests a competitive race. Though Democrats have held a consistent advantage in New Hampshire for much of this century, the Sununu family has also performed strongly statewide; Mr. Sununu’s brother, Chris Sununu, for example, won four consecutive two‑year gubernatorial terms before retiring in 2024.
In the state’s closely watched 1st Congressional District, former Portsmouth City Councilwoman Stefany Shaheen – daughter of retiring Democratic U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen – eked out a narrow 37-35 percent victory over former Biden Administration official Maura Sullivan. On the Republican side, automobile business owner Anthony DiLorenzo scored a decisive 52-26 victory. Ms. Shaheen is favored in the general election.
In the Governor’s race, incumbent Republican Kelly Ayotte is expected to win a second two-year term in November over former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington.
Rhode Island
As polling had been forecasting for months, Rhode Island Democratic Gov. Dan McKee on Wednesday night became the first Ocean State chief executive in 30 years to lose renomination. He fell to former CVS corporation executive Helena Foulkes by a landslide 62-38% margin in the state’s primary election.
Ms. Foulkes, the niece of former Connecticut Senator Christopher Dodd (D), will now have an easy run in the general election in a state where Democrats dominate. The Republican gubernatorial primary has still not been called as we see a close race between trade association executive Aaron Guckian and magazine publisher Elaine Pelino.
In the Senate race, five‑term incumbent Jack Reed scored another landslide renomination victory, taking 77% against two under‑funded Democratic challengers. The Senator is well positioned to win a sixth term in November.
Both of Rhode Island’s US House members, Reps. Gabe Amo (D‑Providence) and Seth Magaziner (D‑Cranston), ran unopposed for renomination and are heavy favorites in the general election.
SENATE
Delaware
Next Tuesday, the First State hosts the nation’s last 2026 regular primary election. Sen. Chris Coons (D) is on the ballot seeking renomination for a third full term. In 2010, Mr. Coons won the special election to fill the remainder of Joe Biden’s final Senate term. Mr. Biden left the Senate to become Vice President in 2009. During the interim between Biden’s resignation and the special election, long-time Biden confidant Ted Kaufman was appointed as the state’s junior Senator. Mr. Kaufman chose not to run in the special election, thus opening the door for Mr. Coons. Next week, Sen. Coons faces only minor Democratic Party opposition. He will then become a prohibitive favorite for re-election in November.
Maine
New polling is consistently yielding former state Senate President Troy Jackson (D) as leading Sen. Susan Collins (R) by a small margin. In the latest released data (YouGov; 9/2-8; 1,335 ME likely voters; online), Mr. Jackson holds a 48-44% edge. In Sen. Collins’ previous race (2020), at the commensurate point in time (Sept 4-20), four different pollsters found her average deficit at just over 7 percentage points when her opponent was then-state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D). Yet, on election day, Sen. Collins won the state with a greater than eight-point margin even though she led in none of the 14 polls published between Labor Day and election day.
HOUSE
AL-2
Despite the new Alabama congressional redistricting map returning the 2nd District to its historical roots in the state’s southeastern sector, which should return it to the Republican column, we still see a close race. According to a Tulchin Research survey conducted for the Democratic House Majority PAC (8/24-31; 600 AL-2 likely voters), US Rep. Shomari Figures (D-Mobile) and state Rep. Rhett Marques (R-Enterprise) are tied at 47% preference.
CA-40
Under the new California redistricting map, US Reps. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) and Young Kim (R-La Habra) were paired in new District 40. A recent Public Opinion Strategies survey conducted for Rep. Kim’s campaign released on September 10th (8/17-20; 400 CA-40 likely voters; live interview) finds a virtual dead heat result.
According to this ballot test, which is consistent with others published earlier, Rep. Calvert posts only a 34-33% edge despite him representing much more of the common territory. This is a double-Republican general election since the two finished first and second in the state’s June 2nd jungle primary.
CA-48
In a new district designed to elect a Democrat, we continue to see a close race evolving. A recent Survey USA poll (conducted for KGTV Channel 10 in San Diego; 8/27-9/1; 625 CA-48 adults; 522 likely CA-48 general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds a very tight contest between San Diego City Councilwoman Marni Van Wilpert (D) and San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond (R). The ballot test sees the candidates within three percentage points of one another with Van Wilpert leading 45-42%.
The new 48th District contains a significant portion of Riverside County, all the way to Palm Springs, as well as most of San Diego County’s rural population. Ms. Van Wilpert represents none of the new 48th on the San Diego City Council while Mr. Desmond represents a large portion of the CD in his current position. Neither represent any of Riverside County. The 48th is one of the CDs projected to flip to the Democrats under the state’s new redistricting map. Incumbent US Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego) is retiring.
GA-7
In an outer Atlanta suburban congressional district that stretches well into rural north Georgia, another race is reporting a close ballot test poll. From a 20/20 Insight survey (conducted for the Tony Kozycki campaign; 8/20-26; 445 GA-7 likely general election voters), we see two-term US Rep. Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee) leading US Naval Academy graduate and attorney Tony Kozycki (D) by a tight 46-43% margin.
The 7th District is strongly Republican according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians (calculated partisan lean: 61.5R – 36.3D), so a developing competitive race here is unexpected.
Missouri
US Supreme Court Associate Justice Brett Kavanaugh denied Missouri’s appeal of a state Supreme Court ruling disqualifying the new congressional map, but the judicial saga may not be entirely finished.
Justice Kavanaugh, who administers emergency matters for the 8th Circuit, ruled that the ballot initiative to approve or overturn the congressional map may appear on the November ballot. Under Missouri procedure, any qualified initiative that could alter a proposed law suspends that law until voters decide its fate; therefore, the 2026 congressional map is suspended.
Complicating matters, U.S. District Judge Stephen Clark issued a separate ruling barring the state from reverting to the 2022 map. His decision came in response to a lawsuit filed by US Rep. Bob Onder (R-Augusta) and state Sen. Rick Brattin (R-Kansas City), who argued that voters participating in the August 4th primary under the new map would be disenfranchised if district lines were changed afterward. Judge Clark agreed with the plaintiffs’ argument and blocked the state from reinstating the 2022 boundaries.
On September 10th, the US Supreme Court stayed Judge Clark’s ruling, so it appears the 2022 map will now be reinstated for November.
NV-2
Nevada’s northern congressional district anchored in Reno should be safely Republican, but as an open seat has historically been competitive. With Rep. Mark Amodei (R-Carson City) retiring, we see a tight general election forming between retired Air Force officer David Flippo (R) and former state House Majority Leader Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D).
A new Strategies 360 poll (conducted for the Benitez-Thompson campaign; 8/22-26; 400 NV-2 likely general election voters; live interview & text) finds Mr. Flippo holding only a 45-42% edge as the candidates enter political prime time.
NM-2
Another competitive race is developing, this time for a Democratic incumbent. Survey USA released a recent poll (conducted for Albuquerque KOB-TV Channel 4; 8/26-9/2; 622 NM-2 registered voters; 522 NM-2 likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) finding two-term US Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-Las Cruces) leading retired police officer and Marine Corps veteran Greg Cunningham (R) by only a 46-43% count.
GOVERNOR
Maine
While the aforementioned new YouGov poll (see Maine Senate above; 9/2-8; 1,335 ME likely voters; online) finds a close Senate race between incumbent Susan Collins (R) and former state Senate President Troy Jackson (D), the open Governor’s race shows a much bigger gap between the two partisan nominees. In the race to succeed term-limited Gov. Janet Mills (D), former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, daughter of US Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/Portland), leads former State Department official Bobby Charles (R) by a substantial 47-36% margin.
Nevada
The Silver State political campaigns are always close, and it appears that this year’s Governor’s race is no exception. Now we see a newly published poll from Emerson College (conducted for KLAS-TV Channel 8 in Las Vegas; 9/5-8; 680 NV likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) that projects Attorney General Aaron Ford (D) holding a slight lead over Gov. Joe Lombardo (R). While previous polls have given Gov. Lombardo a small advantage, the Emerson results find AG Ford holding a 44-42% edge.
STATE AND LOCAL
Massachusetts
As we have repeatedly covered, several states employ a qualifying process for candidates advancing to the general election rather than the more familiar partisan primary structure. In what is termed a “jungle primary,” all candidates irrespective of political party affiliation are placed on the same ballot.
In most cases, the top two finishers then advance to the general election regardless of percentage attained. In Alaska, the top four finishers advance, and if no candidate receives majority support in the general election the race is decided by Ranked Choice Voting. The Louisiana system, where this process began in the late 70s, features a first election that is held concurrently with the general election. If a candidate receives majority support, the individual is elected in one election. If no one receives a majority, the top two finishers advance to a December runoff.
Now, Massachusetts may join the jungle primary group. Voters will decide in November if they want to abandon their long-held partisan primary system in exchange for the qualifying election structure. Ballot Proposition 3 will determine how the state will conduct its future elections.
St. Petersburg, FL
Former Governor, ex-Congressman, and previous Florida Attorney General Charlie Crist, who was a Republican, Independent and now a Democrat, and who lost repeated races for Governor and US Senate, is making yet another comeback. Now, Mr. Crist is attempting to win the mayor’s office from his home in St. Petersburg. To do so, he will have to oust incumbent Democratic Mayor Ken Welch.
A new poll suggests that Mr. Crist will be successful in his comeback quest. A St. Pete Polls survey (8/31-9/1; 509 St. Petersburg registered voters; interactive automated phone system & text) finds Mr. Crist commanding a strong lead, 52-27 percent when respondents leaning to one candidate or the other are included.
