Senate: Ten Toss-Ups

Nail-biting Battle for Senate 2026

With new polling arriving almost daily, an unusually large number of Senate races are now entering the toss‑up realm. Early and mid‑September surveys indicate that ten Senate campaigns currently fall within a three‑point margin, placing them squarely inside the traditional polling margin of error and classifying each as too close to call.

Three of these ten toss‑ups are in states that typically vote Democratic at the federal level. This dynamic significantly complicates the Democrats’ path to erasing the Republicans’ net four‑seat advantage. Because Republicans would retain the majority in a 50-50 Senate, Democrats must reach 51 seats to claim control. 

Under that math, Democrats would need to win nine of the ten toss‑up races, assuming former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) converts the open North Carolina seat. If Cooper does not win NC, Democrats would need to sweep all ten toss‑ups to reach a majority.

Below are the toss‑up states, listed alphabetically, along with the September poll(s) that place each race within the three‑point margin of error.

Alaska 

Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) performed poorly in Alaska’s August 18th jungle primary, finishing 8.1 percentage points behind former at‑large Rep. Mary Peltola (D). Since then, however, he has rebounded.

The co/efficient September survey (9/14-17; 799 likely Alaska voters) now finds Sen. Sullivan ahead 48-46%. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted one day earlier (9/13-14; 1,188 likely voters) showed the race tied at 39% apiece.

Iowa

In the most recent Iowa survey, another from the busy co/efficient firm (9/14-16; 831 Iowa likely voters), U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R‑Marion/Cedar Rapids) leads state Rep. Josh Turek (D‑Council Bluffs) 46-42%. Rasmussen Reports, however, produced a very different result in its September 8-10 statewide poll (1,031 likely voters), finding Rep. Turek ahead 45-40%.

Though neither poll falls within the three‑point toss‑up range, the fact that two reputable pollsters show opposite leaders strongly suggests that the true state of the race is closer than either individual survey indicates.
 
Maine

Sen. Susan Collins (R) has trailed for much of the race since Democrats forced nominee Graham Platner out and transferred the Senate party nomination to former state Senate President Troy Jackson. The latest polling shows a contest that has tightened considerably.  

Quantus Insights (9/14-15; 621 likely voters) reported Sen. Collins claiming a one‑point edge, 48-47%. Just days earlier, Rasmussen Reports (9/8-10; 1,033 likely Maine voters) found Mr. Jackson leading 46-45%. 

Michigan

Though Democrat Abdul El‑Sayed has held a slight lead in several post‑primary polls, he has yet to consistently break 48 percent in political polling. Former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) remains consistently within the polling margin of error.  

Emerson College (9/12-14; 1,000 Michigan likely voters) shows El‑Sayed ahead 48-46%. A Washington Post survey conducted just days earlier (9/10-14; 803 likely voters) found a similar 48-45% advantage. Conversely, earlier September data from the Glengariff Group (8/31-9/3; 600 likely voters) placed Rogers in front, 46-44%, underscoring how tightly contested the race remains.

Minnesota

Republican Michele Tafoya has steadily closed the gap in this race, gaining enough momentum to force Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) into a virtual tie. The latest co/efficient survey (9/14-15; 833 Minnesota likely voters) shows Flanagan holding a narrow 43-42% edge. A SurveyUSA poll conducted just days earlier (9/9-14; 654 likely voters) projects an outright 44-44% dead heat. 

Nebraska

Wedgewood Polls (9/14-16; 500 Nebraska likely voters) shows Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) holding a four‑point lead, 52-48%, with leaners allocated to both candidates. SurveyUSA, on the other hand (9/8-13; 503 likely voters), finds Independent Dan Osborn posting a similar four‑point advantage, 46-42%. 

As in Iowa, neither margin falls within the three‑point toss‑up range. Yet the fact that two pollsters, in consecutive periods, each project four‑point leads for opposite candidates strongly suggests the race is considerably closer than either individual survey indicates. 

New Hampshire

This contest has shown steady Republican momentum since the state’s late September 8th primary. co/efficient surveyed New Hampshire immediately after the nomination vote (9/9-11; 958 likely voters) and found U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) and former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) tied at 46%. Prior to the primary, two late‑August polls also pointed to a competitive race and showed Sununu clinging to a narrow advantage. 

Republican polling firm Fabrizio Lee & Associates (8/27-30; 600 likely voters) posted Sununu to a slight 37-36% lead, while the University of New Hampshire (8/20-24; 1,878 likely voters) found a 45-43% Sununu edge.

Ohio

Two pollsters, the Trafalgar Group and Bowling Green State University/YouGov, surveyed the Ohio electorate between September 14-16 and September 1-10, respectively. Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), attempting a comeback after losing his 2024 race, held three‑point leads over appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) in both surveys, 45-42% and 48-45%.

This pattern mirrors what occurred in the 2024 Senate election. Sen. Brown posted similar small leads in September of that year, only to see his advantage fade as the campaign moved closer to Election Day. He ultimately lost in 2024 to Republican Bernie Moreno by 3.5 percentage points.

South Dakota

Public Policy Polling released its latest South Dakota survey (9/8-9; 629 registered voters), suggesting that the Democrats’ strategy of persuading their nominee to withdraw so the party could formally back Independent Brian Bengs is beginning to bear fruit. The PPP ballot test shows Sen. Mike Rounds (R) leading Mr. Bengs only 45-42%. This marks the second poll within a month indicating that the race could be competitive.

Texas

Five polls have been released in the Texas Senate race just since September 8th. While two of the five give state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) more than a three‑point lead over Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), three surveys, from Emerson College, Insider Advantage, and Mason‑Dixon Polling & Strategy, find the contest within the three‑point toss‑up sphere.  

Emerson College (9/12-14; 1,000 Texas likely voters) and Insider Advantage (9/8–9; 1,200 likely voters) each recorded the same 47-46% Talarico edge. Mason‑Dixon Polling & Strategy (9/8-10; 625 likely voters) measured a 46-43% Talarico lead.

The culmination of these ten toss‑up races will likely determine which party controls the Senate in the next Congress, and each will be closely monitored all the way through Election Day.