SENATE
Alabama
A Napolitan News Service poll for the Alabama Policy Action organization (9/21-25; 800 AL registered voters) finds US Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) comfortably ahead of Democrat Everett Wiss by a strong 54-33% margin.
Maine
The co/efficient Republican polling firm conducted a Maine electorate poll (9/28-30; 1,240 ME likely general election voters; live interview & text) and found Sen. Susan Collins (R) holding a slight 48-46% lead over former state Senate President Troy Jackson (D). The poll has the credibility to substantiate a Collins lead because the same respondent sample finds Democratic gubernatorial nominee, former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, daughter of US Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/Portland), leading former Assistant US Secretary of State Bobby Charles (R) by a 47-38% count, which is consistent with other published polls.
Montana
American Pulse Research & Polling tested the Montana electorate (9/19-24; 600 MT likely voters) and finds former US Attorney Kurt Alme (R) leading Independent former University of Montana president Seth Bodnar and Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead by a 45-26-19% margin. This result is consistent with other published polls, and both of Alme’s opponents taking significant vote shares will virtually ensure that he will win the race on November 3rd, but with only plurality support.
South Dakota
A new Zenith Research poll for Independent Brian Bengs’ campaign (9/24-27; 500 SD likely general election voters) finds Sen. Mike Rounds (R) holding only a 53-47% lead. Because this result shows no undecided voters suggests the result is due to push questions asked of the respondents after the initial ballot test was completed. It is very likely that the first ballot test found Sen. Rounds in much stronger position.
Texas
A plethora of polls again sees state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) and Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) producing tight ballot test results with the Democrat holding a slight lead and both candidates under the 50 percent support threshold. While Talarico continues to lead in polling, Paxton is gaining. Considering that Republican statewide candidates have under-polled in every major race since 2016, usually about four percentage points, suggests that Mr. Paxton may be in better shape than the polls suggest and could be positioned to secure a surprising victory on election night.
HOUSE
Missouri Redistricting
The recent drama surrounding the new Missouri congressional redistricting map has finally concluded. After a previous US Supreme Court ruling, in addition to several countervailing federal court rulings that installed the new map versus the one drawn in 2021 and used in the 2022 and 2024 elections, the high court again ruled, and this time finally, that the previous map will be in place for the 2026 elections.
This decision restores Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s (D-Kansas City) re-election chances, making it a virtual certainty that he will return for a 12th term. Under the new map, the 5th District would have gone from being a Kansas City anchored CD to one that stretched well into the rural areas of central Missouri.
MO-2
A new Remington Research Group poll suggests that yet another Republican incumbent race is falling into a dead heat. The survey (9/14-15; 565 MO-2 likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) found US Rep. Ann Wagner (R-Ballwin) holding only a 43-42% edge over retired Army officer Fred Wellman (D). Rep. Wagner has been in close polling races before but pulls away toward the end to win at least in the low 50s. Given that Mr. Wellman barely won the Democratic primary with a plurality, chances are good this pattern will continue.
MT-1
With Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) retiring, the competitive western Montana 1st District is rendering polling suggesting that the open seat battle between radio talk show host and military veteran Aaron Flint (R) and smokejumper firefighter Sam Forstag (D) will be close. According to the Democratic firm Impact Research, polling for the Forstag campaign (9/20-23; 500 MT-1 likely general election voters; live interview) finds the Democratic nominee leading Mr. Flint by a 47-44% margin. The MT-1 race is likely a legitimately competitive contest and now a key Democratic conversion opportunity.
NY-17
One of the focal point races to provide a national electoral clue lies in Upstate New York, where US Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) is battling for a third term in a district that would typically elect a Democrat. A just released Emerson College poll of the 17th District (9/27-29; 400 NY-17 likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds Democratic challenger Cait Conley, a military and intelligence service veteran, posting a lead within the polling margin of error at 48-46%. Though trailing in this survey, Rep. Lawler is running ahead of other northeast Republicans and that puts him in position to score a close victory on election night. This is a race that will draw considerable further attention.
OH-15
Yet another presumed safe Republican incumbent is seeing weak polling numbers. Democratic polling firm Hart Research Associates conducted a survey for Democrat Don Leonard in central Ohio’s 15th Congressional District. The poll (9/22-24; 500 OH-15 likely general election voters) found US Rep. Mike Carey (R-Columbus) trailing college professor Leonard by a single percentage point, 46-45. This is another race that merits attention as the calendar turns to October.
TX-15
While reports suggest that Republicans are losing some of the Hispanic support they gained a South Texas, a new poll confirms such is the case. Normington, Petts & Associates released a poll for Democratic nominee Bobby Pulido, a well-known Grammy Award winning Latino music artist, that finds the challenger leading US Rep. Monica De La Cruz (D-McAllen) by a strong 54-41% count. A Democratic victory here would definitely spoil Republican hopes of scoring a net gain of five seats under the new redistricting map.
Utah 1-4
Lighthouse Research, conducting a series of all four congressional district polls for the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah and the Utah Debate Commission, released the respective ballot test results. All of the polls were conducted between August 31st and September 24th and released on September 29th. They contained survey samples of between 508 and 515 registered UT voters in each district. The data was collected via live telephone interviews and online participation. All polls were conducted under the new redistricting map.
In the 1st District, created to elect a Salt Lake City Democrat, former Democratic Congressman Ben McAdams is a lock to win the general election. He leads Republican Riley Owen by a whopping 63-21 percent. In District 2, US Rep. Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City) tops Democrat Peter Crosby by a closer than expected 39-34 percent.
District 3 finds US Rep. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City), running in a district much different than her previous seat, but leading Democrat Kent Udell by a comfortable 45-26 percent. Finally, in new District 4, US Rep. Mike Kennedy (R-Alpine) tops Democrat Jonny Larsen by a 42-33% clip. The Republican incumbent numbers are a bit down largely because each new district contains substantial new territory.
VA-1
A new George Mason University/Washington Post poll (9/23-28; 609 VA-1 likely voters; live interview & text) finds veteran US Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Montross) in trouble against Henrico County Commonwealth Attorney Shannon Taylor (D). According to the ballot test, including respondents leaning to both candidates, Ms. Taylor would lead the Congressman 50-46%. Perhaps more troubling for Rep. Wittman, by a margin of 53-46% the respondents want the Democrats to control the House in the next Congress; this, in a district where the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 53.6R – 44.7D partisan lean.
WA-3
A DHM Research poll for the Oregon Public Broadcasting Company tested the competitive southwestern Washington congressional campaign. The survey results (9/17-27; 543 WA-3 likely voters) see state Senate Minority Leader John Braun (R-Chehalis) posting a tight 46-44% edge over two-term incumbent Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Skamania County) in a race that is expected to produce a razor-thin outcome. WA-3 is one of only a few non-redistricting affected districts where a House Democratic incumbent appears endangered.
GOVERNOR
Alabama
The Napolitan News Service poll for the Alabama Policy Action organization (9/21-25; 800 AL registered voters) covered in the above Alabama Senate section also produced strong numbers for Sen. Tommy Tuberville who is the GOP gubernatorial nominee. In the open Governor’s race, Sen. Tuberville leads former US Sen. Doug Jones (D), the man he unseated in 2020, by a 50-37% clip. Despite controversy over whether Mr. Tuberville meets the Alabama seven-year residency requirement to run for statewide office, he appears set to win the general election and succeed retiring Gov. Kay Ivey (R).
Michigan
While the US Senate race is highly competitive, the Governor’s race yields a clear advantage for Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson over US Representative John James (R-Farmington Hills), a failed two-time statewide nominee. The latest available data confirms a Benson advantage. A Cygnal/Beacon Research survey (for the Michigan Enjoyer; 9/18-21; 600 MI likely general election voters) finds Ms. Benson leading the gubernatorial race 45-38% over Rep. James. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.
Nebraska
A new Lake Research (D) poll finds Gov. Jim Pillen (R) falling into a highly competitive race against former state Sen. Lynne Walz (D), whose husband is a cousin of Minnesota Governor and 2024 Vice Presidential nominee Tim Walz (D). The poll (for the Lynne Walz campaign; registered voter sample not disclosed; online & text), finds Gov. Pillen and Ms. Walz tied at 40%, with Americans for Prosperity party nominee Brad Lindstrom and Rick Beard of the Legal Marijuana NOW Party pulling 9 and 4 percent of sample, respectively.
Wedgewood Polls went into the field during the September 14-16 period (500 likely voters) and found a much different total than the Lake Research result. The Wedgewood ballot test, more consistent with other published polls, found Gov. Pillen leading Ms. Walz, 53-36 percent.
Oregon
While most Democrats are doing very well in polling, another survey surfaced that found Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek (D) again falling slightly behind state Senator and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Christine Drazan (R-Klamath Falls). According to DHM Research (9/17-27; 915 OR likely voters), Ms. Drazan leads Gov. Kotek, 47-46 percent. In 2022, Ms. Kotek defeated Sen. Drazan, 47-43 percent.
Vermont
Earlier, a University of New Hampshire regional poll (9/17-21; 829 VT likely general voters; online) found five-term Governor Phil Scott (R) trailing economist Amanda Janoo 49-43%. Braun Research, however, countered with their own poll (9/10-21; 737 VT likely voters) that posted Gov. Scott to a 44-34% lead over Ms. Janoo. Vermont is one of the most loyal Democratic states, but Gov. Scott has been able to win here, repeatedly. The 2026 race may be one of his most challenging as he competes to win a sixth consecutive two-year term.
Wisconsin
Marquette Law School released their latest regular Wisconsin electorate poll, and they see a tight race between Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (D) and US Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua), who recently survived a light plane crash. The poll (9/16-23; 692 WI likely voters; live interview) found Mr. Crowley leading within the polling margin of error by a tight 49-46% edge over Rep. Tiffany.
