Utah Numbers

Polls showing closer‑than‑expected contests

A polling firm has released a full set of surveys in each of Utah’s four newly redrawn congressional districts, and several results suggest closer‑than‑expected contests.  

All three Republican incumbents seeking re‑election (a fourth, Rep. Burgess Owens, is retiring) post tighter margins than their voting histories would imply. The lower ballot scores, however, likely stem from each incumbent being forced to represent significantly new territory. With voters less familiar with their new representatives, undecided rates rise accordingly.

Lighthouse Research conducted the polling series for the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah and the Utah Debate Commission. Each survey was fielded between Aug. 31st and Sept. 24th and released on Sept. 29th. The four polls sampled between 508 and 515 registered voters per district, using live telephone interviews and online participation.

In the new 1st District, drawn specifically to elect a Salt Lake City Democrat, former Congressman Ben McAdams is a lock to win the general election. He leads Republican Riley Owen by a commanding 63-21 percent. 

Creating this district, which contains downtown Salt Lake City along with West Jordan, West Valley City, Millcreek, and Taylorsville, was the focal point of the entire redistricting process and the reason the courts mandated a redraw. Democrats were effectively awarded the seat, giving the party a guaranteed place at the delegation table. The Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) partisan lean of 56.2D – 39.7R is about as Democratic a district as can be reasonably drawn in Utah.

In District 2, US Rep. Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City) leads Democrat Peter Crosby by a closer‑than‑expected 39-34 percent in the Lighthouse poll. The new 2nd District lies along the Nevada, Idaho, and Colorado borders and includes North Salt Lake City, Ogden, Logan, Farmington, Brigham City, and Layton. With a DRA partisan lean of 65.6R – 20.1D, the Republican nominee is a prohibitive favorite in any general election. 

While most of Rep. Moore’s former 1st District remains within the new 2nd, he loses his northeastern Salt Lake City base, altering the district’s population complexion. His underwhelming 57-43 percent GOP primary win over state Rep. Karianne Lisonbee (R-Clearfield) reflected lingering doubts among Republican voters, but Rep. Moore will easily win in November regardless of this latest poll.

District 3 finds Rep. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) leading Democrat Kent Udell by a comfortable 45-26 percent margin. Rep. Maloy now runs in a district very different from her previous 2nd District seat. 
 
Formerly representing the western sector south of Salt Lake City along the Nevada border all the way to Arizona, her new 3rd District begins east of Salt Lake City, moves south to Arizona, and then cuts west in southern Utah to include her home base in Cedar City and St. George. 

With a DRA partisan lean of 70.1R – 24.7D, the new 3rd is the state’s strongest Republican district. The Congresswoman’s toughest race, the GOP primary, which she won 66-34, is already behind her.

Finally, in the new 4th District, freshman Rep. Mike Kennedy (R-Alpine) leads Democrat Jonny Larsen 42-33 percent. Like Rep. Maloy, Mr. Kennedy will represent a completely new sector of the state, shifting from east to west. 

The new 4th contains most of the Jordan Valley south of Salt Lake City, including Sandy, Lehi, and Pleasant Grove. With a DRA partisan lean of 67.5R – 27.8D, Rep. Kennedy will have little difficulty winning in November while he becomes acquainted with his new constituency.

The bottom line from a national context is the Democrats will gain one seat in the Utah delegation, but the remaining Republicans all control safe political districts for as long as this map stands.