Wave of Freshman Senators Loom as Governors Eyeing Higher Office Spark Unique Appointment Scramble
A modern‑day record for open Senate seats is emerging in this election cycle. At least 16 states will seat a freshman Senator in January and that assumes no incumbent loses in November, which is an unlikely prognostication.
The number rises to 18 when including the two Senators, Marsha Blackburn (R‑TN) and Amy Klobuchar (D‑MN), who are favored to win their gubernatorial races. Once they take office in January, two additional Senate vacancies will occur, producing a pair of new Senators through gubernatorial appointment.
Speculation is already underway in both states regarding who the new Governors, or the current Governors should either Senator resign early, might select.
In Tennessee, the most frequently mentioned potential appointees, assuming Sen. Blackburn makes the appointment, are U.S. Rep. Tim Burchett (R‑Knoxville), Knox County Mayor Glenn Jacobs, and former CoreCivic CEO Damon Hininger.
Should Sen. Blackburn resign early and Gov. Bill Lee (R) make the appointment, speculation is largely absent. Ms. Blackburn has publicly stated she intends to appoint her own successor. Most observers believe she would choose Rep. Burchett, with Mayor Jacobs then running in a special election for the open 2nd District.
In Minnesota, assuming a Governor Klobuchar appoints her own successor, early speculation centered on retiring Gov. Tim Walz. He quickly removed himself from consideration, however, saying he would “rather eat glass” than serve in the Senate.
Other rumored possibilities include US Rep. Angie Craig (D‑Prior Lake), who lost the Senate nomination earlier this year; Secretary of State Steve Simon; U.S. Rep. Kelly Morrison (D‑Wayzata); and state Sen. Erin Maye Quade (D‑Apple Valley). They are among several prominent Democrats mentioned as potential appointees.
While Sen. Blackburn remains favored in Tennessee, the gubernatorial race is showing competitive signs. Independent candidate David Hatley, who describes himself as owning “the largest hot tub manufacturing operation on American soil,” has spent $12 million on his Senate campaign.
The most recent available Tennessee gubernatorial poll from TargetSmart (9/9-12; 600 likely voters) showed Blackburn leading with 45%, well below the 50% threshold, followed by Democrat Jerri Green, a Memphis City Councilmember, at 36%, and Mr. Hatley at 10%. This survey, however, was conducted before most of Hatley’s spending took effect.
The Hatley offensive against Blackburn has instigated action: according to The Down‑Ballot political blog, Blackburn supporters have launched a $4 million independent expenditure attacking Hatley. Even so, Sen. Blackburn remains the likely winner, regardless of her final percentage.
In Minnesota, Sen. Klobuchar’s Republican opponent, state House Speaker Lisa Demuth (R‑Cold Spring), is polling closer than expected in a reliably Democratic state. A SurveyUSA poll for KSTP‑TV (10/8-12; 718 likely voters) shows Klobuchar leading 48-41%, a surprisingly narrow margin in a cycle where Republican performance elsewhere has generally lagged previous benchmarks.
In her four US Senate campaigns, Ms. Klobuchar has averaged 60% of the vote. Therefore, she is running well below her previous support levels but is still expected to win.
The same is true for the rest of the Minnesota statewide ticket. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, running against former national sportscaster Michele Tafoya (R), is in a tight race and her polling margin continues to shrink. The rest of the Minnesota Democratic races are also closer than we typically see. Whether a more competitive election than expected influences who receives the Senate appointment remains to be seen.
With two additional new Senators arriving from Tennessee and Minnesota shortly after the next congressional session begins, it is likely that at least 20% of the new Senate will consist of freshman members, a very high percentage when compared with historical data.
