A New Congressman

Trump-endorsed James Gallagher wins vacant House seat in California special election

Lost in the shuffle of the nation’s major June 2nd primary night was the election of new California Congressman-Elect James Gallagher (R-Yuba City) in the state’s 1st District. 

With approximately 60% of the district votes tabulated, Mr. Gallagher, a member of the state Assembly, was declared the special election winner outright with a current vote total of 62.6 percent. Under the elongated California ballot counting system, the state has 7 more days to finish the count and certify the results. 

The outright win means Mr. Gallagher will immediately be sworn into the House upon certification of his election. He replaces the late US Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R) who passed away suddenly in early January.

Under the 2021 map, from which Mr. Gallagher won his seat on Tuesday night, the northern California 1st CD, which stretched from the Oregon border almost to Sacramento and then from the city of Redding east to Nevada, was a safely Republican domain. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculations, 1st District version yielded a Republican advantage of 60.2R – 37.7D. 

Under the new California map, the 1st District was substantially changed. The major difference was adding Sonoma County, a larger Democratic domain in the heart of the California wine country. Sonoma became part of CD-1 under the direction of then-state Senate President Mike McGuire (D) who hails from the county. Its addition and the removal of some smaller Republican leaning counties to the north drastically changes the partisan lean and gives the Democrats the clear advantage, 55.2D – 44.1R. 

Therefore, both Assemblyman Gallagher and Sen. McGuire on Tuesday ran in two elections in two different districts, the special and the regular jungle primary. The new map, of course, is for the regular term. In Tuesday’s qualifying primary, with just over 50% of the ballots counted, Mr. Gallagher is leading this contest, too, 47.2 – 37.4% over Sen. McGuire. 

While Assemblyman Gallagher is in first place at this juncture, the total Democratic vote exceeds the total Republican vote among the six candidates. The aggregate Democratic total, at this point, is just over 51%.

While the district is designed to elect a Democrat, namely Sen. McGuire, we could actually see a high level of competition in November. The new 1st District is comprised of all or parts of nine counties. 

At this point, it appears that Mr. Gallagher is comfortably ahead in seven of the nine, the two are close in Mendocino County, and Sen. McGuire is well ahead in Sonoma, the biggest population entity in the new 1st District.

The new 1st CD party registration figures find 40.7% of the voters as Democratic Party members and 31.1% who are Republicans. Members of the conservative American Independent Party account for 5.2% with another 1.4% as Libertarians. This brings the right of center total to 37.7% of the 1st District total.

Added to the left of center coalition are the Green Party members with 0.7% of the registration total and the Peace and Freedom Party members with 0.6 percent. The two additions bring the left of center aggregate total to 42% of the registered voting universe. 

Most of the remainder are in the Declined to State category, or Independents or Non-Affiliated voters, as they are characterized in most other states. Therefore, under the right circumstances in which the center right becomes more energized than the center left, the general election. even in a district designed to elect a Democrat, could become highly competitive.

Mr. Gallagher’s special election victory brings the current US House total to 218 Republicans with one Independent, California Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento) caucusing with the Republicans to bring their total to 219. The Democrats have 212 and four seats are vacant.

The next special election is scheduled for June 16th in California’s East San Francisco Bay 14th District to replace resigned US Rep. Eric Swalwell (D). All candidates are placed on one jungle election ballot. If no one receives majority support, a runoff election between the top two finishers is scheduled for August 18th.

The other special election is scheduled in Georgia’s 13th District to replace the late US Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta). Like the California election, the GA-13 special will place all candidates on one ballot in a July 28th election. If no one secures a majority, the runoff between the top two finishers is scheduled for August 25th.

The other two vacancies, FL-20 (Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick-D who resigned) and TX-23 (Rep. Tony Gonzales-R, who also resigned), remain vacant at the current time with no special election schedule announced.