A trio of pollsters find Gina Hinojosa pulling into the lead
While most Texas political coverage has focused on polling that shows Democratic state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) leading Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) after Paxton defeated Sen. John Cornyn for the Republican nomination, new data suggests he is not the only lagging GOP statewide candidate in this cycle.
Three consecutive surveys now find three‑term Gov. Greg Abbott (R) trailing state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D-Austin), a surprising turn in a race long assumed to favor the incumbent.
A trio of pollsters now find Ms. Hinojosa now pulling into the lead. Guidant Polling & Strategy (for the Public First Action Super PAC; 9/20-28; 800 TX likely general election voters) shows Hinojosa ahead 46-42%. Siena University (for The New York Times; 9/21-30; 615 TX likely general election voters) finds a similar 49-46% advantage. Online international pollster YouGov (9/20-10/5; 3,625 likely voters) places the Hinojosa margin at 48-47%.
Three other firms, however, report markedly different results during the same period. Fox News (9/24-28; 881 TX likely general election voters) shows Abbott leading 52-47%. Similarly, the Big Data Poll (for the Public Polling Project; 9/24-26; 698 TX likely general election voters) finds the Governor ahead 49-44%. Stratus Intelligence (for Texans for a Conservative Majority; 9/22-24; 865 TX likely general election voters) posts a 50-45% Abbott advantage.
These latter results are more consistent with earlier polling. The fact that all six surveys were conducted within the same time frame yet produced conflicting conclusions suggests the gubernatorial campaign is tightening.
One factor rarely acknowledged is the persistent Republican undercount in Texas polling throughout the Trump‑era elections. For example, in 2024, President Trump entered Election Day with an average six‑point polling lead but won by 13. Sen. Ted Cruz, seeking a third term that year, led by an average of two points yet won by eight.
In 2022, Sen. Cornyn’s average lead over Democrat M.J. Hegar was just under six points, though he prevailed by almost ten. In 2020, President Trump’s average advantage over Joe Biden was 1.2 points, but he ultimately carried Texas by six.
This pattern could be extending into the 2026 Senate race, though here Paxton rarely leads where in the aforementioned examples the Republican candidate generally possessed the advantage. Polling aggregators show Talarico ahead by an average of 3.3 points for the general election campaign. Since September 1st, however, the contest has tightened slightly: across 18 polls conducted in September and early October, Talarico’s average edge has narrowed to 2.9 points.
If the familiar Texas undercount is again present, the race may be even closer than the toplines suggest, and it is not out of the question that Paxton could forge ahead once actual votes are counted.
We’ve seen close polling in Texas races before only to see Republican victories prevail with substantial margins on election night. Democrats have not won a statewide race in Texas since 1994. Their chances appear stronger this year, but whether Talarico and Hinojosa can convert polling strength into actual victories remains to be seen.
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