CA-1: A Tale of Two Races

 Atmosphere remains tough for GOP

A confusing political situation is present in northern California as several more candidates than expected have filed for both the special election to replace the late US Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R) and the regular election.

Redistricting has caused most of the confusion. The special election will occur in the 1st District to which Mr. LaMalfa was last elected while the regular term 1st District election will be held in the post-redistricting version. Though the field of candidates is largely the same for both campaigns, the two 1st Districts are political opposites.

Several surprising moves have been made. First, term-limited state Assemblyman James Gallagher (R-Yuba City) announced early that he would run in the special election from the district that favors Republicans (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 60.2R – 37.7D), but he remained uncommitted about running for the full term in the Democratic 1st (DRA partisan lean: 55.2D – 44.1R). 

It was thought when Mr. Gallagher announced that he would have little competition and win the seat outright on June 2nd and serve half a year in the House. The leading Democrat, it was believed, would not want to risk losing in the Republican 1st, which might potentially weaken his chances for the regular term.

The redistricted 1st CD was drawn for state Senator Mike McGuire (D-Sonoma County), who at the time the redistricting referendum was moving through the legislature was state Senate President. Like Mr. Gallagher in the Assembly, Sen. McGuire was also ineligible to seek re-election to his current position. His price for getting the redistricting referendum through the Senate – the Democrats have a super majority but with no votes to spare – was a 1st District draw where he would run and be favored to win. 

Since the map drawers shifted Democratic voters from Reps. Jared Huffman (D-San Rafael) and Mike Thompson’s (D-St. Helena/Napa) 2nd and 4th Districts while adding Sen. McGuire’s home county of Sonoma, the 1st was transformed into a Democratic CD. Therefore, it was initially expected that Mr. Gallagher would not enter the regular election and Mr. McGuire would not enter the special.

The next two surprising political moves occurred just before the candidate filing deadline expired on March 11th. Mr. Gallagher did enter the regular term race and Mr. McGuire decided to become a candidate in the special election. Both moves are curious, especially for McGuire.

While a Republican winning the new 1st District that now stretches from the Napa wine country east to the Nevada state line may not be impossible in a favorable election year, it will still be very difficult and especially so when national trends favor the Democrats.  But, with few options, Mr. Gallagher, who is favored to win the special election, had little to lose by trying since the special election victory would only give him a maximum of six months in Congress.

The more surprising move, and a new poll suggests that Mr. McGuire may not be as strong as initially believed, was the former Senate President entering the special election in the Republican district.  Though he should be the regular election favorite in a district he basically drew himself, losing the special election would likely pierce his aura of invincibility.

To complicate matters further, another Democrat, non-profit organization agriculture consultant and frequent candidate Audrey Denney, also filed for both elections. Her presence in the special election could have a significant effect. 

In the special, all candidates are placed on one ballot and should a contender receive majority support, the individual would be elected outright. If no one reaches the 50% plateau, the top two finishers regardless of political affiliation will advance to an August 4th runoff election.

Therefore, having another credible Democrat in the special election changes the campaign.  Now, it will be more difficult for Mr. Gallagher to reach 50% because Ms. Denney could attract some Republican agriculture votes, but she also decreases Mr. McGuire’s percentage because she will capture more than a few Democratic votes.

For the regular term, all candidates are again on the same ballot, and on the same day (June 2nd regular election primary day) for both elections. In the regular, the top two finishers, presumably Sen. McGuire and Assemblyman Gallagher, will advance to the general election irrespective of percentage attained. 

A new poll from David Binder & Associates for the McGuire campaign tested the new 1st District and the result is underwhelming for their client. The survey (2/24-28; 700 CA-1 likely regular term voters; live interview, online, & text) finds Mr. McGuire topping Assemblyman Gallagher by a slight 33-30% margin with Ms. Denney attracting a credible 18 percent.    

With so many moving parts and all candidates having some disadvantages in at least one of the two 1st Districts, northern California’s tale of two races promises to feature some very interesting campaigns and results.