California’s Double D’s

Three intriguing races in the Golden State’s political landscape

While national attention is centered on US House races that will determine majority control, six competitive California campaigns are tightly contested and involve vulnerable incumbents, yet none will change the national partisan division. 

These are the districts where candidates of the same party advanced to the general election under California’s top‑two primary system. Five of the six feature Democratic intra‑party battles, and together they form an important part of the Golden State’s political landscape.

California’s top‑two qualifying system places all candidates on a single primary ballot, with the two highest finishers, regardless of party affiliation or vote share, moving on to November. This year, eight such intra‑party contests emerged, and six of them represent major, fully engaged campaigns. 

Today, we examine three of the most intriguing of these races.

CA-4

Veteran Rep. Mike Thompson (D-St. Helena/Napa) is one of several California House members forced into a double‑ Democratic general election this year. Venture capitalist Eric Jones has established himself as a serious challenger, raising and self‑funding more than $8.3 million through the June 30th Federal Election Commission reporting period, and more since. 

In the top‑two primary, Rep. Thompson led with 41 percent of the vote, while Mr. Jones finished second with 22.2 percent in a nine‑candidate field. The remaining 36.8 percent was divided among six Republicans and one No Party Preference contender.

It is this latter bloc – predominantly Republican voters in a district that Dave’s Redistricting App analysts estimate as having a 42.4 percent Republican lean – that will likely determine which Democrat prevails in November. In the June 2nd primary, Mr. Jones attracted 35.2 percent of all voters who selected a Democratic candidate. If he can maintain that level of Democratic support while also winning an overwhelming share of Republican voters, he could position himself for an upset.

So far, however, his campaign messaging shows little inclination toward courting Republican support. Because most of the GOP vote is geographically concentrated in the northern part of the 4th District, a carefully targeted strategy could allow a Thompson opponent to navigate an ideological tightrope. 

Whether the Jones campaign will adjust its approach to appeal to Republican voters seeking an alternative to Thompson remains uncertain. A significant strategic shift would be required for Jones to close the gap with the incumbent – but if undertaken, a plausible victory path could emerge.

CA-7

In the Sacramento anchored 7th District, veteran Rep. Doris Matsui finished behind Sacramento City Councilwoman Mai Vang in the June qualifying election, producing another double Democratic general election. 

The primary was close: Councilwoman Vang led with 31.2 percent to Rep. Matsui’s 29.0 percent. Two additional Democrats combined for 2.7 percent, while two Republican candidates drew a substantial 37 percent of the vote. Any incumbent receiving only 29 percent in a primary is clearly showing vulnerability, underscoring the highly competitive general election campaign now unfolding.

To win, Ms. Matsui will need to move toward the ideological center and capture a large share of Republican voters. Ms. Vang, a Democratic Socialists of America candidate, has consolidated the party’s hard‑left base and is advancing the familiar argument that Matsui has served too long. Rep. Matsui, now 82, first entered Congress in 2005 after succeeding her late husband, Rep. Bob Matsui, who held the seat beginning in 1979.

Given the initial vote breakdown and Matsui’s uneven performance in a recent televised debate, this race shapes up as a contest with genuine upset potential.

CA-34

Veteran Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-Los Angeles) again faces a Democratic opponent in the general election, a familiar dynamic in the 34th District. The 2026 contest marks the fourth consecutive cycle in which two Democrats have advanced from the top‑two primary. 

In the previous three elections, Rep. Gomez defeated the same challenger, attorney David Kim, who specializes in music licensing and immigration cases. This year, however, his opponent is anthropologist Angela Gonzales‑Torres.

In the primary, Mr. Gomez finished ahead of Ms. Gonzales‑Torres, 46.0 percent to 30.7 percent. Yet a new survey casts the general election in a different light. A just‑completed Upswing Research poll (Sept. 1-5; 403 CA‑34 likely voters) shows Gonzales‑Torres leading Gomez 41-38 percent.

Compounding the challenge for the incumbent, Rep. Gomez is now under a House Ethics Committee investigation for “alleged sexual contact with a House staffer,” a development that has generated significant negative publicity and is likely a major contributor to his recent polling deficit.

Congressman Gomez has averaged only 53.3 percent in his three general election victories over Mr. Kim, underscoring that this district routinely produces competitive intra‑party races. Given the latest polling and the ethics investigation, this contest is clearly one to watch.

And, as is typical in California, the state’s historically slow vote‑counting process means that final totals in this and other close races may take weeks to be fully known.