Tar Heel State bound to be key early‑reporting state on election night
The state of North Carolina is playing a major role in terms of which party will control the Senate and House in the next Congress. The Tar Heel State hosts three individual campaigns that could contribute to changing the balance of power in Washington.
NC-Senate
Sen. Thom Tillis (R) is retiring, and all available polling suggests the open seat is poised to flip to the Democrats.
Former Governor Roy Cooper, who has won six statewide elections (two for governor and four for attorney general), is the strongest candidate in the race and dominated the 2026 contest from the outset. Republicans nominated former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley, who also served as North Carolina GOP chairman, but this is his first campaign as a candidate.
Since the March 3rd primary, 21 publicly released polls have tested the NC Senate race, and Mr. Cooper leads in all. Across six major poll aggregators – 270toWin, Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Race to the White House, RealClearPolitics, and Silver Bulletin – the Cooper average advantage is 8.2 percentage points.
North Carolina routinely produces close statewide races, and Republicans tend to win slightly more than Democrats. Both parties, however, can prevail here in any given election.
Among all 2026 Senate contests, this race currently appears as the most likely to flip away from the incumbent party. If Mr. Cooper wins, Democrats would still need to convert three additional Republican states, however, in addition to defending their vulnerable seats in Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.
NC-1
North Carolina is one of several states that redrew its congressional map before the 2026 election. Because the Governor has no role in redistricting, the Republican legislature controlled the process. Their redraw transformed the previously lean‑Democratic northeastern 1st District into a lean‑Republican seat.
In 2020, President Trump narrowly lost NC‑1 by one percentage point. In 2024, he rebounded to win here 51-48%. Despite Mr. Trump’s improved performance, Democratic Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) still won re‑election, but with a small margin of less than two percentage points.
The legislature then redrew the district to the point where Trump would have carried the new version by ten+ points. Dave’s Redistricting App now calculates a 52.4R – 45.9D 1st District partisan lean under the new map. After the redraw, 2024 Republican nominee Laurie Buckhout returned for a rematch with Rep. Davis in a new district with much more GOP friendly terrain.
A new Democratic survey, however, suggests converting the seat may be more difficult than expected. The GBAO firm’s poll (9/8-11; 500 likely voters) shows Rep. Davis leading 50-43%, which is beyond the polling margin of error. A June GQR poll (6/22-28; 500 likely voters) also found Rep. Davis ahead, though by a smaller 45-41% spread.
The data currently points to a Republican under‑performance. NC‑1 is a must‑win for the GOP if they hope to retain their narrow House majority. Expect significant outside spending to flood the district as the campaign advances through political prime time.
NC-11
The second NC competitive House seat is found in the western 11th District contest anchored in the city of Asheville. In early August, Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-Flat Rock) withdrew from his re‑election bid following revelations of an inappropriate relationship with young female staff members, conduct that resulted in a House censure.
Local Republican leaders then replaced him with state Rep. Jennifer Balkcom (R-Henderson County), but she had to create a congressional campaign from scratch just three months before election day. Ms. Balkcom faces Democrat Jamie Ager, who has already raised $2+ million and is attempting to brand himself as a “Mountain Democrat” in order to distance himself from the national party’s socialist wing.
NC‑11 is the weakest of the eleven Republican‑held districts under the new map, though it still carries a 51.9R – 45.8D partisan lean (Dave’s Redistricting App).
A new Public Policy Polling survey (9/10-11; 531 likely voters) offers Republicans some encouragement. Mr. Ager leads just 47-44% over an opponent who has not yet reached full campaign strength.
Because the last two District 11 Republican incumbents were forced out after short tenures (Edwards; and Rep. Madison Cawthorn, who lost renomination in 2022 after a series of personal scandals), the GOP must again persuade a likely weary electorate to support a new candidate who again promises steadier representation.
NC‑11 is another must‑win Republican seat, and like NC‑1, it will likely attract substantial outside spending aimed at securing a victory from what is now an underdog position.
North Carolina will be a key early‑reporting state on election night. The competitive Tar Heel State contests are part of the group that will provide early national trend indicators as results begin to unfold across the country.
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