Dangerous political climate for Democrat incumbents
What once appeared as a virtual sure bet for Sen. Michael Bennet to be elected Governor turned to defeat last night, and the result wasn’t close. With pre-election polling trends running against 15-term US Representative Diana DeGette (D-Denver), she too became another incumbent loss statistic.
For Senator Bennet, he will continue in his present position. Because his seat was not in-cycle this year – it next comes before the voters in 2028 – the loss does not cost the Senator his political career. His 2028 situation, should he choose to seek re-election, would certainly make him more vulnerable in a new Democratic primary, however.
The Governor’s race should not be considered a Democratic Socialist win. While Attorney General Phil Weiser, who beat Sen. Bennet 56-44%, is certainly on the ideological left, he did not campaign as a socialist. Rather, he won this campaign by simply being the better candidate and very likely outworking Sen. Bennet who still had to spend considerable campaign time in Washington doing his present job.
Mr. Weiser, who won two statewide races as Attorney General but was term-limited in 2026, has a compelling story in that his mother was born in a concentration camp during WWII because his grandmother was a prisoner of the Nazi regime. Furthermore, with a political party moving closer toward the Palestinian coalition and away from Israel, Mr. Weiser highlighted his Jewish heritage and still won going away. Therefore, this incumbent defeat is not like most of the others we’ve seen this year but is another indication that perceived establishment candidates are doing poorly.
In Denver’s 1st Congressional District, Rep. DeGette suffered a 51-42% defeat at the hands of 29-year-old Democratic Socialist Melat Kiros. Polling showed DeGette trailing, and she qualified for the ballot by only eight delegate votes at the 1st District nominating convention. Each clue revealed Rep. DeGette’s weakness in campaigning for renomination. Conversely, at the district nominating convention, Ms. Kiros attracted almost 70% of the delegate votes.
There are now seven House incumbents and two Senators who have been denied renomination. Now, added to these numbers, we have a sitting multi-term Senator running in an open Governor’s race that fails to claim his party’s nomination.
Of the seven, five, now including DeGette, are Democrats. The others are Reps. Al Green (D-TX), Julie Johnson (D-TX), Dan Goldman (D-NY) and Adriano Espaillat (D-NY). The Republicans are Reps. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) and Thomas Massie (R-KY).
Democratic Socialists are responsible for three of the defeats, Reps. DeGette, Goldman, and Espaillat.
Al Green attempts to blame his loss on a new redistricting map, but the overwhelming majority of the new 18th District constituency carried over from his own district suggesting the new district boundaries were not the principal reason for his losing to recently elected Congressman Christian Menefee, 68-32%.
In the case of freshman Rep. Johnson, redistricting was a major factor in her losing to former Congressman Colin Allred since her 32nd District was transformed into a Republican seat, thus forcing her to seek re-election in the newly drawn 33rd District.
On the Republican side, Rep. Crenshaw losing in his Harris County anchored CD began the string of incumbent losses. Rep. Massie, likely the most well-known nationally of the defeated Representatives, as was the case with Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA), lost because of his feud with President Trump. Tabbed by Trump as the most anti-Trump Republican Congressman led to Massie suffering a 55-45% loss in a district that he had won seven times.
Turning back to Colorado, Sen. John Hickenlooper (D) was renominated in his campaign, but did so with only a 55-45% margin against another Democratic Socialist candidate, state Sen. Julie Gonzalez (D-Denver), who he outspent by an 8:1 ratio.
In the 3rd Congressional District, freshman Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-Grand Junction) scored a lopsided 67-33% victory over former state Representative Ron Hanks. The general election looks to be competitive as Rep. Hurd will face Real Estate company CEO Dwayne Romero who last night defeated venture capitalist Alex Kirloff even though the latter man had a huge spending advantage.
In what promises to be a very close 8th District general election, state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) won the right to challenge freshman Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Ft. Lupton/Thornton). The Rutinel victory margin of 61-34% over former state Representative Shannon Bird was much more substantial than predicted.
