Could Markey Be Next?

Moulton continues to narrow the gap with the incumbent candidate in the Bay State

A new Massachusetts political survey finds US Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) closing the gap with Sen. Ed Markey (D) in a Democratic primary ballot test, an early indication that Bay State Democrats could become the next constituency to seriously threaten an incumbent seeking renomination.

With the Colorado primary completed earlier this week, 31 states have now nominated candidates or advanced contenders to runoff elections. July brings only one state primary – Arizona on the 21st – and a South Dakota runoff on the 27th, creating a brief respite before the August and September primaries conclude the 2026 nomination process.

So far, ten incumbents have felt the wrath of their own party’s voters. Seven US House members (5 Democrats; 2 Republicans) have been defeated for renomination along with two Senators (2 Republicans). A third Senator, Colorado’s Michael Bennet (D), also lost on Tuesday, but he was running for Governor and not forced to risk his federal position.

The University of New Hampshire’s latest survey of Massachusetts voters (6/18-23; 633 likely general election voters; 370 likely Democratic primary voters; online) shows Sen. Markey’s lead over Rep. Moulton narrowing to 41-35%.

Though the Democratic polling sample is small for a statewide survey, the findings align with other previously released data.  Emerson College’s May poll (May 3-4; 451 likely Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) detected a 37-32% Markey advantage. UNH’s April Massachusetts survey (4/16-20; 353 likely Democratic primary voters; online) found Markey ahead 46-33%.

Though the Senator still leads in every publicly released poll, his margins are not commanding. He has failed to exceed the 50% support level in any statewide Democratic primary survey since October 2025.

Additional indicators suggest the race merits close attention as the September 1st primary approaches. At the Massachusetts Democratic convention on May 30th, Markey won a strong 72.9% of the 3,762 delegate votes. Rep. Moulton’s 27.1% share, however, easily surpassed the 15% threshold required to secure a primary ballot line.

Fundraising numbers also point to a competitive contest. While second‑quarter reports will not be released until at least July 15th, the March 31st Federal Election Commission filing showed Moulton with $3.3 million cash on hand compared to Markey’s $2.5 million. Sen. Markey is expected to post significantly stronger numbers in the next report, potentially aided by independent coalition support. If he does not, it would further reinforce the perception of a serious primary challenge.

Should Rep. Moulton deny the Senator renomination, it will not be considered a Democratic Socialist victory. Rep. Moulton, a Marine Corps veteran who has won two Bronze Star medals along with a Navy and Marine Corps Commendation medal, is not a DSA candidate, and during his dozen years in the House has cast some politically moderate votes. So far in the Senate campaign, however, he has moved distinctly to the left.

While a Moulton upset would differ from the recent DSA‑aligned victories in the New York and Colorado US House primaries, it would nonetheless underscore the high level of frustration within both parties’ electorates. Should this trend persist, the general election could bring an unusually large number of incumbent defeats.