Busy, Busy, Busy in The Sunshine State
Voters in another three states, Alaska, Florida, and Wyoming, vote tomorrow as the primary season begins to draw to a close. Next week, we will see the Oklahoma Governor and South Carolina Senate runoff elections before Delaware, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island end the national nomination process in September.
Today, we look at a very busy Florida primary. Tomorrow, we preview Alaska and Wyoming.
SENATE
Appointed Senator Ashley Moody (R), who won two statewide races as Attorney General before Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) tabbed her to replace Marco Rubio when he was appointed US Secretary of State, is on the ballot to serve the remaining two years of the current Senatorial term. She faces only minor opposition in tomorrow’s primary election.
Sen. Moody’s likely Democratic general election opponent will be retired Lt. Colonel and ex-National Security Council staff member Alexander Vindman whose twin brother, Eugene Vindman, is a Virginia Congressman. Mr. Vindman’s main competition tomorrow is state Rep. Angie Nixon (D-Jacksonville), but the former is viewed as a prohibitive favorite for the party nomination.
Early polling suggests a competitive general election, nothing new for Florida polling, but considering voting history and the Republican lopsided voter registration advantage (almost 1.6 million more Republicans than Democrats), Sen. Moody must be considered a decided favorite.
GOVERNOR
A total of 29 Republican, Democratic, minor party, Independent, and qualified write-in candidates are competing to replace term-limited Gov. DeSantis. On the Republican side, US Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) has been the clear polling leader for the entire campaign and though polling shows a tightening race as we move toward tomorrow’s election, Mr. Donalds remains the favorite. His top opponents, among the 11 Republican contenders, are investment firm CEO James Fishback and Lt. Gov. Jay Collins.
Among the six Democrats, former Congressman, ex-Republican and ex-Independent David Jolly appears as the clear leader for the party nomination after Orange County Executive Jerry Demings suspended his campaign due to health reasons.
HOUSE
The new Florida redistricting map faces its first ballot test tomorrow, and we first see 2025 special election winners Jimmy Patronis (R-Fort Walton Beach) and Randy Fine (R-Melbourne Beach) on the ballot for their first full term. Both have primary opposition tomorrow, but each is expected to easily win renomination. In the remaining 26 districts, 13 feature nomination competition, including seven open seats.
It is vitally important for national Republicans that the GOP candidates convert the four targeted CDs. Failing to flip all four of the weakened Democratic seats and keeping the 20 seats the party already controls would likely mean relinquishing House majority status.
FL-2
Rep. Neal Dunn (R-Panama City) is retiring, and the Republican primary is a projected contest between self-funding businessman Keith Gross, who unsuccessfully challenged Sen. Rick Scott in the 2024 Republican primary, and former congressional aide and businessman Austin Rogers. Florida Republican Party chairman Evan Power is also a significant candidate. Democrats feature a four-person primary, but tomorrow’s Republican winner will be the prohibitive general election favorite.
FL-7
Two-term House incumbent Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach) has scandal problems involving women so tomorrow’s primary could see yet another US Representative fail to win renomination. A just released survey from Capitol Strategic Partners conducted over the weekend (8/14-15; 929 FL-7 likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text) found former television news anchor Ryan Elijah leading Rep. Mills by a substantial 44-27% clip. Nominating Mr. Elijah would likely improve Republican chances of holding the seat in November.
Democrats are looking toward former NASA chief of staff Bale Dalton who has already out fundraised Rep. Mills by approximately $500.000. Also on the Democratic ballot is former 9th District Congressman Alan Grayson making yet another attempt at returning to Congress, but he is not viewed as a significant contender.
FL-9 (Dem)
The new Republican map suggests that Rep. Darren Soto’s (D-Kissimmee) 9th District is at the top of the GOP conversion list if they are to gain four seats in the Florida delegation. Seven Republicans are competing for the party nomination and the chance to face Rep. Soto in a more favorable district. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) statisticians, the new FL-9 partisan lean is 58.9R – 40.2D, a complete reversal from the 58.8D – 39.1R calculation in the 2021 map.
The leading Republican primary contenders appear to be former Deputy Assistant Defense Department Secretary Dan Green, and former congressional candidates Thomas Chalifoux and Jorge Martinez.
FL-11
US Rep. Dan Webster (R-Clermont) is retiring after serving what will be eight congressional terms after 18 years in the state legislature where he became Speaker of the House and Majority Leader of the state Senate. Tomorrow’s Republican winner will become a prohibitive favorite in the general election. A tight race is expected. Businessman Joe Strada has loaned his campaign $5 million, but it remains to be seen if such an investment will mean victory at the polls.
FL-13
The new Republican map gives two-term Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) a net seven Republican percentage point gain which will help improve her victory chances in November. Tomorrow’s likely Democratic winner is retired Army Brigadier General Leela Gray.
FL-14 (Dem)
Another of the four districts the Republicans must flip is ten-term US Rep. Kathy Castor’s (D-Tampa) 14th CD. The previous 14th was solidly Democratic, but the new version favors Republicans. The 2026 DRA partisan lean is 55.5R – 43.4D, which should give a new GOP nominee the inside track toward unseating the veteran incumbent.
Eight Republicans are vying for the nomination meaning the GOP will likely have a general election contender who only won with plurality Republican support. Former state Reps. Kevin Steele and Mike Beltran are among the leading contenders.
FL-16
Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota) is retiring after serving ten terms in the House and replacing him will almost assuredly be former US Department of Agriculture official Sidney Gruters, the wife of Republican National Committee chairman Jon Gruters. Armed with an endorsement from President Trump, Ms. Gruters is a lock for the nomination tomorrow night and should easily defeat the new Democratic nominee. The new 16th CD carries a DRA partisan lean of 56.6R – 42.6D, and Ms. Gruters will be a heavy favorite in November.
FL-19
The Ft. Myers-Cape Coral-Naples congressional district race is one of the most interesting in that some of the leading candidates have served in public office from other states. Former US Reps. Chris Collins (R-NY), Madison Cawthorn (R-NC), and Illinois state Senator and multi-time congressional and statewide candidate Jim Oberweis, along with former congressional candidates Ola Hawatmeh (NY) and Catalina Lauf (IL) are all battling to succeed Rep. Donalds. Three candidates from Florida, including radio station owner Jim Schwartzel, are also on the ballot.
Tomorrow night’s outcome will be interesting as there is no clear leader. The ultimate winner, however, will advance to Congress in the general election.
FL-20
With the resignation of Rep. Sheila Cherfulis McCormick, though she is a candidate in tomorrow’s election despite facing multiple federal corruption indictments, the 20th CD is one of only four designed Democratic seats in the state. The big news here is whether US Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Weston) can move into this district, which is 70% minority, and claim another term in Congress. Early polling suggests she may be able to construct a plurality winning coalition.
FL-22
The new 22nd District that now stretches across the southern Florida peninsula from the Ft. Lauderdale suburbs to the Gulf of America should elect a Republican, though with a 54.4R – 44.9D partisan lean, is one of the weaker GOP seats. We can expect to see general election competition for whomever comes through the crowded big spending GOP primary tomorrow night. The leading contenders appear to be businesswoman Belinda Keiser and crypto currency company executive Michael Carbonara.
FL-24 (DEM)
The new 24th District with a DRA partisan lean of 73.0D – 26.2D is the strongest Democratic district in the state. Rep. Frederica Wilson (D-Miami Gardens) is retiring, and the battle to replace her lies solely within tomorrow’s Democratic primary.
The contest appears to be a three-way battle among Miami-Dade County Commissioner Oliver Gilbert, who has raised the most money and has outgoing Rep. Wilson’s support, physician Rudy Moise, and Kendrick Meek, Jr., the son of former Congressman Kendrick Meek, Sr. The compact Broward/Miami-Dade district includes the cities of Hollywood, Miami Gardens, Miramar and part of Miami.
FL-25
Two-term US Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland) is choosing to seek re-election in the new 25th District because his previous 23rd CD was drastically changed and where Rep. Lois Frankel (D-West Palm Beach) chose to run. Rep. Moskowitz believes he can win the district because about half of his 23rd CD constituency lies in the new 25th. His problem, however, is the most Republican areas of the previous 23rd came over to the new Atlantic Ocean coastal district that stretches from Deerfield Beach to South Beach.
The Republican primary is an expensive one with five Republican candidates spending over $600,000 apiece on their campaigns according to the most recent Federal Election Commission campaign finance report (7/29 pre-primary report).
The leading candidate figures to be Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer who also leads the field in fundraising with $2.2 million raised. The other competitive candidates are investment company executive Dan Franzese, ex-state Rep. George Moraitis, businesswoman Raven Harrison, and frequent GOP candidate Joe Kaufman. One of these contenders, likely Mayor Singer, will prove a strong competitor for Rep. Moskowitz.
FL-27
Three-term Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami) can expect another competitive general election in a district that the new map only slightly changed. Her likely Democratic opponent is former television news anchor Elliott Rodriguez who is expected to easily win his party’s primary tomorrow night.
