Re-cap of House members’ current campaign status
Of the current 62 open US House seats, 28 of the members are running for a different office, and the combined results of their statewide pursuits are so far underwhelming.
In the five 2026 election cycle contests recorded to date, only one House member, New Jersey US Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D), successfully attained her statewide goal. In November of 2025, Ms. Sherrill was elected Governor of New Jersey.
Four others lost early primaries and a fifth, Rep. Chip Roy running for Texas Attorney General, advanced to a runoff election after placing second in the March 3rd GOP primary. The other four losing statewide primary candidates are Illinois Reps. Robin Kelly and Raja Krishnamoorthi, and Texas Reps. Jasmine Crockett and Wesley Hunt.
Below is a re-cap of the members’ current campaign status:
Alabama
Rep. Barry Moore (R): Currently, Rep. Moore is leading the US Senate Republican primary polls and likely going to a runoff election with Attorney General Steve Marshall. The eventual Republican nominee will succeed Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) who is running for Governor. The Alabama primary is May 19th.
Arizona
Reps. David Schweikert (R) and Andy Biggs (R): Both men are running for Arizona Governor. Currently, Rep. Biggs has a large lead in GOP primary polling. The eventual Republican nominee will challenge Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs.
California
Rep. Eric Swalwell (D): The Congressman is in a tight race to secure one of two general election ballot positions for the open California Governor position. A Democrat opposing a Republican in the general from the jungle primary will become the prohibitive favorite to succeed term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom (D). Two Democrats or even two Republicans could conceivably advance to the general election from the huge field of 62 candidates.
Florida
Rep. Byron Donalds (R): Rep. Donalds is the leading candidate in the open Governor’s race. He enjoys large Republican primary leads in a state where the GOP nominee now becomes a strong favorite to win the general election and succeed term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis (R).
Georgia
GOP Reps. Buddy Carter and Mike Collins: Current polling places Reps. Collins and Carter running 1-2 in the GOP Senate primary. The pair advancing to a June 16th runoff election from the May 19th primary now appears likely. The eventual winner will face Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) in the general election. The Senator begins the general election campaign as at least a slight favorite.
Iowa
Rep. Ashley Hinson (R): Ms. Hinson has positioned herself as the consensus Republican US Senate candidate in the open primary. She will face either state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines) or state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs). Rep. Hinson will be the general election favorite. The winner replaces retiring Sen. Joni Ernst (R).
Rep. Randy Feenstra (R): Congressman Feenstra finds himself in a tight race in both the Republican gubernatorial primary against four opponents and for the general election against consensus Democratic candidate Rob Sand, the Iowa State Auditor. Rep. Feenstra should prevail in the plurality primary and the early Feenstra-Sand general election will be rated as a toss-up.
Kentucky
Rep. Andy Barr (R): The open Republican Kentucky Senate primary finds Rep. Barr holding a substantial lead in campaign resources but fails to establish a sustained polling advantage against former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron with wealthy businessman Nate Morris trailing. The Republican nominee will succeed retiring Senator Mitch McConnell (R). At this point, Rep. Barr will probably prevail in both the GOP primary and general election.
Louisiana
Rep. Julia Letlow (R): Congresswoman Letlow is challenging Sen. Bill Cassidy in the Republican primary along with State Treasurer and former US Rep. John Fleming. Louisiana is returning to a partisan primary/runoff system after decades of employing the jungle primary alternative. The change hurts Sen. Cassidy.
Expect the May 16th primary election to end in two of the three candidates advancing to a June 27th runoff election. Sen. Cassidy and Rep. Letlow are the most likely runoff qualifiers. Expect a tight GOP finish. The eventual Republican nominee is a lock in the general election.
Massachusetts
Rep. Seth Moulton (D): Mr. Moulton is engaged in a long shot challenge opposite Sen. Ed Markey for the Democratic Senate nomination. While polling suggests what could become a competitive September 1st primary campaign, the odds favor Sen. Markey, thus likely ending Rep. Moulton’s congressional tenure.
Michigan
Reps. John James (R): Rep. James is the likely Republican gubernatorial nominee, advancing into a serious three-way general election with Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) and former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan (I). With Mr. Duggan in the race as a competitive non-major party contender, the general election allows each candidate to claim a reasonable victory path. The end result could well be each of the candidates faring well, with the winner obtaining less than 40% of the vote.
Rep. Haley Stevens (D): A very tight and intense three-way open Democratic US Senate campaign is unfolding featuring US Rep. Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed.
At this point, the three candidates are in a tight race both for votes and campaign donations with a long way to go. The eventual Democratic nominee will face former US Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers (R) in what promises to be a highly competitive general election.
Minnesota
Rep. Angie Craig (D): Ms. Craig is in a difficult open primary opposite Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan, as both strive to win the Democratic nomination. Ms. Flanagan is expected to come away with the party endorsement at the state convention, but Rep. Craig will force an August 11th primary election. The eventual nominee emerging from what promises to be a close contest will begin as at least a slight favorite over former national sportscaster Michele Tafoya (R) who was a regular on the NBC Sunday Night Football telecasts.
New Hampshire
Rep. Chris Pappas (D): Mr. Pappas is the consensus Democratic US Senate nominee as he is likely preparing to face former Sen. John E. Sununu (R). The latter man has large leads in the GOP primary opposite former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, but the nomination contest here will lag until September 8th.
New Hampshire generally favors Democratic candidates, but the Sununu family has done very well in the state especially with Chris Sununu, the Senate candidate’s brother, winning four consecutive gubernatorial elections.
Oklahoma
Rep. Kevin Hern (R): Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R) resigning the Senate seat to become Homeland Security Secretary leaves the seat to appointed incumbent Alan Armstrong (R). Because of Oklahoma’s procedure that requires appointees to pledge not to run for a full term, the door is wide open for Tulsa Congressman Kevin Hern.
Other top Republicans such as Gov. Kevin Stitt and US Rep. Stephanie Bice (R-Oklahoma City) have declined to run for the Senate; therefore, Mr. Hern is quickly becoming the consensus Republican candidate and a prohibitive favorite for the general election.
South Carolina
Reps. Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman: The two House members joined a crowded Republican gubernatorial field attempting to succeed term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster (R). The latest polling shows a tight field with Rep. Mace near the top and Rep. Norman gaining momentum. Two of the four major candidates, Lt. Governor Pamela Evette and Attorney General Alan Wilson being the others, will advance to a runoff from the June 9th primary election.
Tennessee
Rep. John Rose (R): Middle Tennessee Congressman John Rose appears to be in one of the longest shot campaigns of this election cycle. He is risking his safe congressional seat for a run for Governor and badly trails Sen. Marsha Blackburn in the Republican gubernatorial primary. The nomination election is not until August 6th, but it would be surprising to see significant changes transpire in this primary campaign.
Wisconsin
Rep. Tom Tiffany (R): At this point in the long Wisconsin primary cycle, US Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) looks to have a clear shot for the Republican nomination and is closing in on consensus candidate status. The general election, against the Democratic contender who comes through their crowded and contested August 11th primary campaign, will be rated a toss-up as are most Wisconsin statewide races.
Wyoming
Rep. Harriet Hageman (R): Sen. Cynthia Lummis’ (R) surprise retirement after serving one term opens the door for an easy Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne) run. The at-large Congresswoman is already the consensus Republican Senate candidate for the August 18th primary and will be a prohibitive favorite in the general election. The most competitive races in the state will be the open Governor’s race and Rep. Hageman’s open at-large congressional contest, but the Senate campaign looks to be quiet.
