Front and center is the Granite State’s open US Senate race
The University of New Hampshire regularly polls its home state, and the new Granite State Poll provides a glimpse into every key 2026 race that the NH voters will decide. Front and center is the state’s open US Senate race as candidates work toward becoming retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s (D) successor.
The university’s Survey Center (1/15-19; 2,239 NH registered voters, 2,053 NH likely general election voters; 893 NH likely Democratic primary voters; 967 NH likely Republican primary voters; online) just released the results from their rather exhaustive mid-January questionnaire.
In the Senate general election polling, US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) leads former US Senator John E. Sununu, 50-45%. If former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown were the Republican nominee, Rep. Pappas’ support level would expand to a double-digit 52-42% advantage.
In the Republican primary, Mr. Sununu leads ex-Sen. Brown by an even greater 48-25% margin. For the Democrats, the Pappas primary lead over scientist Karishma Manzur is a whopping, and unsurprising, 65-11 percent.
The New Hampshire Senate race is one of nine such open contests around the country, which is an unusually large number. Of the nine, five come in Republican states and four in Democratic domains, but only three, Michigan, New Hampshire and North Carolina, appear competitive for the general election. A fourth state, Minnesota, may be on the cusp of competitiveness now that Republicans have a credible candidate in retired national sportscaster Michele Tafoya.
The pollsters then interviewed 958 likely voters in New Hampshire’s eastern 1st Congressional District, the seat that Rep. Pappas is risking to run for the Senate.
Among those saying they will participate in the Democratic primary, former Portsmouth City Councilwoman Stefany Shaheen, daughter of retiring the US Senator, holds a 33-10-8% advantage over state Rep. Heath Howard (D-Strafford) and ex-Obama Administration official Maura Sullivan.
On the Republican side, businesswoman and former NH GOP Vice-Chair Hollie Noveletsky records a 15-10% preference over businessman Anthony DiLorenzo. The Granite Poll did not test the general election, but the eventual Democratic nominee will be a slight favorite to hold the competitive 1st District in November.
The Granite Poll also interviewed 1,093 likely voters in New Hampshire’s western 2nd Congressional District. Here, freshman US Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua) holds a huge 66-12% lead over state Rep. Paige Beauchemin (D-Nashua) in the Democratic primary. In the general election pairing, the Congresswoman is projected to lead 2024 Republican nominee Lily Tang Williams, 54-40%. In 2024, Ms. Goodlander defeated Ms. Williams, 51-43 percent. The latter woman, to date, is unopposed for the Republican nomination.
The UNH Survey Center pollsters also tested the Governor’s race where first-term Governor and former US Senator Kelly Ayotte (R) will seek re-election for a second two-year term. New Hampshire and neighboring Vermont are the only two states that feature two-year gubernatorial terms.
In testing Gov. Ayotte through hypothetical general election pairings, the pollsters find her leading Portsmouth Mayor Deaglan McEachern, a possible Democratic candidate, 49-41 percent. Against businessman Jon Kiper who is an announced Democratic gubernatorial candidate, she posts a stronger 50-39% preference advantage.
Since the beginning of the Trump political era, New Hampshire has largely moved toward the Democratic column. Though the presidential elections have been close, the electorate has voted against President Trump in all three of his campaigns, as polling correctly predicted in each case.
Therefore, looking ahead to the 2026 midterm elections, Democrats must be viewed as having the inside track in the Senate race and the two US House campaigns with Republican incumbent Ayotte being favored for re-election. While the Democrats have won the presidential races and fared stronger in the federal congressional campaigns since 2014, Republicans have claimed the last five gubernatorial races.
Though the New Hampshire Republican candidates have generally fared poorly, the Sununu family continues to win races for the GOP, i.e., former Governor Chris Sununu’s four consecutive wins. Thus, the electorate nominating former Sen. John E. Sununu, which is likely, should move this race higher on the Republican target charts after the state’s very late September 8 primary election.
While having a small population, the Granite State will again draw more than its share of national political attention in the 2026 midterm elections. Regardless of the final outcome, we can be assured of close finishes in the Senate, 1st District House contest, and the Governor’s race later this year.
