Old Line State Democratic primary campaign promises to be expensive and hard-fought
A new Democratic congressional primary is taking shape, and one not based upon ideology or the incumbent’s age as are most others.
Former Maryland Congressman David Trone (D), the founder of what is now the Total Wine & More company, lost the 2024 Democratic US Senate primary to now-Senator Angela Alsobrooks despite spending almost $63 million of his own money on his campaign.
Mr. Trone, who served as the 6th District Congressman for three terms, has now formally announced that he will enter the 2026 Democratic primary in an attempt to regain his former position. To do so, he will have to deny freshman Rep. April McClain Delaney (D-Potomac) renomination.
After spending $62+ million on his Senate campaign, which included running a barrage of ads throughout the state and the Washington, DC media market for the last two months of the 2024 primary campaign, Mr. Trone managed to lose to Ms. Alsobrooks, then the Prince Georges County Executive, by a ten point 53-43% margin. In terms of spending, Trone outspent Alsobrooks by a 6:1 margin and most observers thought his huge expenditure created a backlash because the campaign oversaturated the political media market.
Now, in a race against Rep. Delaney, the question is how much will Trone spend? If he overspends again, will the result be similar?
Rep. Delaney is the wife of former Congressman John Delaney who represented the district for three terms before leaving Congress in 2018 to begin an ill-fated 2020 presidential campaign. Mr. Trone succeeded Rep. Delaney in the 2018 election.
With Trone opting for the Senate race in 2024, April McClain Delaney, a media lawyer and former Department of Commerce official in the Biden Administration, won the open Democratic US House primary against 11 opponents, recording 40.4% of the vote in the plurality primary. Her closest competitor, state Delegate Joe Vogel, finished with 26.3 percent.
Ms. Delaney would then win the general election with a 53-47% margin over former state Delegate Neil Parrott (R), who has lost the district in three consecutive elections.
Maryland’s 6th District begins in the state’s western panhandle and stretches east and southeast, capturing the population centers of Hagerstown, Frederick, Germantown and Gaithersburg. The city of Potomac, where both Rep. Delaney and Mr. Trone reside, is not part of the 6th District.
The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculations yield a very close political district. According to the DRA statisticians, Democrats hold only a 48.9 to 48.0 edge. Kamala Harris, however, carried the seat with a 51.6 – 45.8% margin, but this was substantially below her 63-34% statewide performance. Mr. Trone averaged 57.5% of the vote in his three victorious congressional elections. For his part, Rep. John Delaney averaged 54.8% in his three winning campaigns.
During his time in Congress, Rep. Trone was viewed as a centrist because he supported some pro-business legislation largely because of his experience in founding a highly successful company. In the Senate campaign, however, he attempted to capture the party’s left faction but clearly failed.
Against Rep. Delaney, who is a centrist and supports policies that are largely representative of her district, it will be interesting to see what campaign strategy Trone employs. The campaign plan must position Mr. Trone to overcome the perception that he wants to return to Congress simply to further his own career and also explain why replacing Rep. Delaney with himself benefits the constituency.
The Maryland primary is scheduled for June 23, and the 6th District Democratic primary campaign promises to be an expensive and hard-fought affair.
Correction: In yesterday’s Update, we indicated that TX-18 special election candidate Amanda Edwards, a former Houston City Councilmember, had not filed for the regular election because her name was not on the candidate’s list. The Edwards campaign informed us that she has, in fact, filed for the regular term and the Harris County Democratic Party will report her name to the Texas Secretary of State’s office.
The special election is scheduled for January 31 between she and Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee, and winner will serve the balance of the current term.
In the regular primary election scheduled for March 3, both she and Mr. Menefee will advance into the Democratic primary against Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) regardless of how they finish in the special election. The new 2025 redistricting map substantially changed District 18, which has led to this unusual circumstance.
