Senate Democratic primary is ‘tied up’ in the Wolverine State
New polling suggests the Michigan Senate Democratic primary is evolving into a dead heat among three participants all with equivalent voter support and campaign financing.
The open Senate primary, which won’t be decided until August 4th, is already white hot. The Data for Progress research organization released the results of their latest survey (for the Zeteo news site; 4/2-8; 515 MI likely Democratic primary voters; online) and found a literal three-way tie, 23-22-22%, among US Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed.
Emerson College soon after released their new poll of the Michigan Senate race (4/11-13; 519 MI likely Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) and while detecting a tie for first place (El-Sayed 24%; McMorrow 24%), Rep. Stevens lags behind with only 13% support within their sampling universe. The latter result is obviously a major difference when compared with the former and depicts the volatility in the Michigan Democratic campaign.
Fundraising is sizzling, as well. The latest Federal Election Commission reports are public for the 1st Quarter of 2026 and we see Sen. McMorrow having raised $8.6 million with $3.7 million cash-on-hand. Dr. El-Sayed accumulated a comparable $7.6 million, with $2.5 million remaining to be spent. Rep. Stevens has attracted $6.8 million in campaign receipts, with $3.0 million in her account.
The person with the most to gain from what promises to be a long and hard-fought Democratic primary is consensus Republican candidate Mike Rogers.
The Emerson College survey (452 MI likely Republican primary voters) posts the former seven-term Congressman to a whopping 55-2-2% lead over dentist Kent Benham and businessman Andrew Kamal so Mr. Rogers has little to fear from a primary challenge. This means, among other advantages, that he can hold the vast majority of his financial assets until the general election.
The former Congressman and chairman of the House Intelligence Committee was also the Republican US Senate nominee in 2024. Far exceeding his polling numbers, Mr. Rogers fell just 19,006 votes short (from a total turnout of over 5.5 million voters) against then-US Rep. Elissa Slotkin who was billed as being one of the best Democratic candidates in the country and certainly a prolific fundraiser.
In the 2024 campaign, Mr. Rogers was badly outspent as Ms. Slotkin had a better than 4:1 expenditure advantage, but vote margin between the two was only three-tenths of one percentage point. Outside spending from Rogers’ allies helped narrow the spending difference, but Slotkin maintained a significant resource edge throughout the campaign.
Being outspent is likely not his problem this year. Mr. Rogers has raised $7.6 million through the first quarter of 2026 and holds $4.2 million in his campaign account. He will continue to raise funds through the primary season and will likely have a huge short term cash advantage over his eventual Democratic opponent no matter which one of the three finally secures the party nomination.
The other Rogers advantage is the three Democrats will be forced to move far to the left in order to secure the party nomination in the plurality primary. Therefore, it is possible that Rogers could be in a position on the day after the August 4th primary to be facing an opponent in a short general election cycle who must start from ground zero on fundraising, since it is clear that all three contenders will be forced to spend what they have to secure the party nomination, and hold some positions well beyond the Michigan ideological mainstream.
The Wolverine State is one of the top places that will determine which party controls the Senate in the next Congress. With the political situation in the Democratic primary and Mr. Rogers likely beginning the general election in a favorable position opposite his eventual opponent, the Michigan race will be the Republicans’ best opportunity to convert a Democratic seat. Being successful here would virtually clinch the GOP’s goal of continuing as the US Senate’s majority party.
With Democrats being in favorable position to convert North Carolina, Sen. Susan Collins (R) in another difficult campaign for re-election in Maine, former three-term Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown back for another attempt in Ohio, and potentially strong developing Democratic challengers in Alaska and Texas makes a GOP victory in Michigan potentially mandatory for Senate Republicans to maintain their majority status.
